Analysis: Early advantage Brewer in Ariz. gov race

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Associated Press | Posted: Saturday, August 28, 2010 12:44 pm

On paper at least, it's a nearly level playing field in the Arizona governor's race between Republican incumbent Jan Brewer and Democratic challenger Terry Goddard.

Both are political veterans who've won statewide campaigns and other election races before that. And both have resumes that include currently holding high-profile elected offices.

Those circumstances give each candidate credibility, experience and visibility. Those are important commodities for candidates to have when asking voters to pick them instead of their opponents.

But Brewer starts the general election campaign with a big advantage _ voters' concerns about illegal immigration and her signing Arizona's tough law on that subject.

"At this point and I think for the foreseeable future, I think we're in hysteria, and hysteria does not serve Terry very well," said Alfredo Gutierrez, a longtime Democratic legislative leader who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2002.

The immigration issue turned around the Republican primary race in Brewer's favor, allowing her to breeze past the token opposition that remained in a race that initially focused on her championing a sales tax increase.

That has Goddard now trying to focus voters on the state's continuing economic and budget troubles and other concerns, such as the recent escape of three convicts from a private prison plagued by security flaws.

Illegal immigration, Goddard said Thursday, "is not the only issue that's facing our state."

But Brewer begins the general election campaign as the front-runner and Goddard as a self-acknowledged underdog.

A July statewide poll conducted by the Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center found Brewer with a 20-point lead over Goddard with a possible margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

"In this political environment, this race is Brewer's to lose," said Sean Noble, a longtime Republican political operative not involved in the governor's race.

Goddard is on record as calling the state's controversial immigration enforcement law misguided, and Brewer is likely to keep beating the issue like a drum.

"I think they're going to hammer him on being soft on immigration," said Jaime Molera, a government relations consultant and a senior aide to a former Republican governor. "That's the note they're going to play and play it until November."

Goddard has already started his push to broaden voters' concerns, calling the state's economy a "disaster."

"She's basically failed to balance the budget the whole time she's been governor," Goddard said in an election-night interview.

Brewer defends her record on money issues, saying she's trying to diversify the state economy and clean up the budget mess left by her Democratic predecessor, Janet Napolitano.

"I took over the state at a very difficult time," Brewer said, citing a budget gap that amounted to a third of the state budget. "We were worse off than any other state."

But it does not help her now that Republican legislative leaders acknowledge the current $8.5 billion state budget still has a shortfall estimated at up to $700 million, setting the stage for a possible new round of cuts of popular programs.

"We still face peril ... as to whether that budget will hold," said House Speaker Kirk Adams, R-Ariz.

And there could be a burnout factor in the immigration issue if voters start focusing more on such concerns as their ability to pay mortgages and whether their children are in crowded classrooms because of budget cuts, said Mario Diaz, a political consultant who managed Napolitano's successful 2002 campaign.

That poses a political calculation for Brewer, Diaz said. "How much does Brewer veer off (to other issues)? Why change horses in midstream, and can she handle five or six different issues?"

Meanwhile, Goddard will have to be disciplined to make headway with non-immigration themes, said Molera. "It's going to take patience."

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