Migrant bill awaits governor
Today's the day for her to announce decision on sanctions
Matthew Benson
The Arizona Republic
Jul. 2, 2007 12:00 AM

Sign? Or veto?

It sounds simple enough. But the fate of a proposal to enact new penalties for employers of undocumented workers hangs in the balance. So, too, do uncounted businesses on both sides of the debate and the more than a quarter-million workers who make up the state's underground labor pool.

Named simply House Bill 2779, the measure is perhaps the most significant bill of the recently adjourned legislative session, and it delves into the state's biggest issue: illegal immigration. Guessing Napolitano's decision has become the biggest parlor game in Arizona politics. advertisement




The deadline for that decision is today.

"It's going to be a telling decision," said Republican lobbyist and former legislator Stan Barnes. "No matter how she acts, she'll have a lot of people yelling at her."


'A real predicament'


Rarely has so much hinged on six little pages.

Those pages spell out license suspensions for any business caught knowingly hiring an undocumented worker. A second offense within three to five years, depending on the circumstances, would mean a permanent license revocation.

The measure is an attempt to dry up jobs that are seen as a major draw for the hundreds of thousands of illegal crossings that have strafed the state's southern border in recent years.

The problem is complex. Equally so are the political ramifications of Napolitano's decision.

Sign the bill, and Napolitano risks offending some of her key supporters, including the business community, Latinos and immigrant advocates.

A veto could be worse, with the potential to alienate centrists and independents who've swarmed to Napolitano in past elections and helped her build seemingly bulletproof popularity in opinion polls. Employer sanctions also have strong public support - polls have shown broad backing for either fines or felony charges - and Napolitano could appear out-of-step with a veto.

Add to the political calculus the wide margins by which the measure passed the Legislature, continued unwillingness to address illegal immigration by Congress and an initiative for the 2008 ballot that would be even stiffer than the measure now on the governor's desk.

"She's in a real predicament," said House Majority Leader Tom Boone, a Peoria Republican. "It's going to be hard for her to find any cover to veto that bill."

The political repercussions aren't just for the here and now. Few expect Napolitano's political career to end with her gubernatorial term in 2010, and she is viewed as an aspirant to Sen. John McCain's seat.

For that reason, Arizona GOP Chairman Randy Pullen doubts HB 2779 will see a veto today: "She has future political ambitions, and people have long memories."


Different theories


Last week, after the Legislature adjourned, more than 200 Valley business leaders filled a ballroom at the Arizona Biltmore Resort for an end-of-session review hosted by the Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce. You'd be hard-pressed to pick an audience more hostile to employer sanctions, and the issue came up again and again.

"I do not know if she's going to sign the bill. I do not know if she's going to veto the bill," Arizona Public Service lobbyist and Capitol insider Martin Shultz told the crowd. "Everyone has their theories."

Some of those theories were on display as the bill's fate was posed to a nine-member panel of legislators.

Will the bill become law? Six said "yes." Two wouldn't guess.

Even House Minority Leader Phil Lopes, a Tucson Democrat who opposed the bill, conceded that the political dynamics say Napolitano must sign it.

"Not to do so seems to fly in the face of public opinion," he said - "strong public opinion."

Just one member of the panel, Rep. Doug Clark, predicted a veto.

"All she has to do is find a couple reasons why she vetoed it," said the Anthem Republican. "Is there a danger? Of course. It's a political move. Political moves don't come without risks."


Waiting for action


If Napolitano has been pushed into a corner on the issue, it's at least partly her own doing. Since early 2006, she has consistently backed penalties for employers of undocumented workers.

Napolitano vetoed one such bill just last year, calling it "amnesty" for employers because it provided no penalties as long as they fired the workers in question upon receiving a cease-and-desist letter from the Arizona attorney general.

Could she now justify another veto?

Rep. Steve Gallardo thinks so. The Phoenix Democrat worries about the measure's effect on the Arizona economy and fears prosecutors would target small, Latino-run businesses.

Referring to a possible veto, Gallardo said he hopes it "would paint her as somebody who would want to tackle (illegal immigration) from a comprehensive approach, not a piecemeal approach."

Maybe. But "if she does veto it," Phoenix pollster Earl de Berge said, "she'd better have some very strong, pro-business reasons to do it."

Think economics. And fears that Americans will lose jobs if companies are shuttered because of a couple violations.

Sign? Veto? We'll soon know.

Said Barnes, "Illegal immigration is the domestic issue of our time. She's the governor. Here we are."



Republic reporters Mary Jo Pitzl and Amanda J. Crawford contributed to this article.







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