Thread: Arizona race splits GOP, Tancredo

http://www.rockymountainnews.com

Ariz. race splits GOP, Tancredo
By M.E. Sprengelmeyer, Rocky Mountain News
September 9, 2006

WASHINGTON - An Arizona congressional race has sparked a rift between Rep. Tom Tancredo and the Colorado Republican Party.

Tancredo, a Littleton Republican, is backing a fellow, hard-line opponent of illegal immigration, Randy Graf, in Tuesday's GOP primary in an open-seat race.

Much of the national Republican establishment has lined up behind another candidate, Steve Huffman. This week, the Colorado Republican Committee sent Huffman a $5,000 contribution, Federal Election Commission records show.

The Colorado contribution angers Tancredo, who has used his profile on immigration to boost state Republicans recently.

"He's definitely not happy about it," spokesman Carlos Espinosa said Friday. "He wants to talk to them, figure out what's going on. This money should be more of a priority for state candidates."

The Team America PAC, founded by Tancredo and run by Bay Buchanan, has been actively campaigning for Graf.

In a message to supporters Friday, Buchanan denounced national Republicans for spending $150,000 on ads for Huffman, and the Colorado and New Mexico Republican parties for making $5,000 contributions.

"They're working overtime to beat a Tancredo/Team America candidate," Buchanan wrote.

Hans Gullickson, executive director of the Colorado Republican Party, defended the contribution, calling Huffman "clearly the most electable Republican in a district that is key to keeping a Republican majority."

Yep, the Reps are split, that was obvious when the Senate debated and passed that idiotic immigration bill. The more it comes out who is who the better. We need to fight these elitists no matter how much money they throw in.
Have any polls in CO been done yet between Graf and Huffman?

And what does this mean?

Tancredo, a Littleton Republican

An August 25 article claimed Graf had a big lead over Huffman. Don't know what the latest numbers are for the race. Obviously it's making the amnesty business lobby nervous.

http://www.alipac.us/modules.php?name=F ... ic&t=39022

The poll gives Graf -- a former state lawmaker -- a large lead in the Republican primary against state Rep. Huffman and party activist Mike Hellon. Graf gets 36 percent in the polls versus 13 percent for Huffman and 10 percent for Hellon.

No surprise here.

The Republican establishment will even support a liberal Democrat - Joe Lieberman - or a radical leftwing RINO - Lincoln Chaffe - over the Republican candidate, if it suits them.

Republicans - the party that stands for nothing.

Good!
Thanks Brian.

Just found this endorsement also from a border patrol group.
http://www.local2544.org/

Local 2544 Endorses Randy Graf - 09-08-06 The text of the endorsement letter follows:

"Local 2544 of the National Border Patrol Council represents over 2,500 front-line Border Patrol agents in Arizona. We proudly endorse Randy Graf’s election bid for the Congressional District 8 seat in Arizona. As a legislator for the state of Arizona, Mr. Graf has proven time and again that he supports the efforts of United States Border Patrol agents in securing this country’s borders, and that he is truly dedicated to seeing that the immigration laws of this country are enforced.

Mr. Graf’s opposition to any form of “amnesty” for illegal aliens who have successfully violated our laws is a powerful statement that rewarding lawbreakers is not the way to discourage further lawlessness. We tried this approach in 1986 and it was an unmitigated disaster. The failure of the 1986 amnesty is best demonstrated by the fact that we can now reflect on it twenty years later and we see that the illegal immigration problem is much worse. If we are to have any hope of curtailing illegal immigration into this country we must begin enforcing the laws, which includes providing Border Patrol agents with the manpower, tools, equipment, and infrastructure we so desperately need to perform our jobs properly. We believe that without question, Randy Graf understands the problem and is the right person to help see this job through in the United States Congress. Graf’s positions on issues affecting national security and enforcement of our immigration laws are far superior to those of his main opponent in the Republican primary, Steve Huffman. Huffman’s views are closely aligned with those of Jim Kolbe. Frankly, Congressman Kolbe’s irrational views on border issues have been disastrous for rank-and-file Border Patrol agents attempting to secure this country’s borders. Kolbe has been a one-man wrecking crew when it comes to our use of traffic checkpoints in southern Arizona. Randy Graf offers a chance for real border security. He will bring a fresh perspective to Congressional District 8, and he has been unwavering in his support of Border Patrol agents over the years. Graf’s plan for securing our borders is light years ahead of the views presented by any of the candidates from the Democratic Party in District 8.

Graf also supports the retention of our collective bargaining rights, thereby assuring that rank-and-file agents continue to have the ability to speak out on issues affecting our jobs and the security of this country.

We look forward to working with Randy Graf in the months and years ahead, and we are confident he will make us proud after he is elected to the United States Congress."

GO RANDY GRAF!!!

I saw Huffman interviewed on television and well....not impressive at all....a puppet.

I also saw Randy Graf and he was intelligent, committed and had American Views...if you get my drift.

What does Littleton mean?

Littleton, Colorado. That's where Tom Tancredo is from.

It's exasperating that our political machinery has detached, out-of-touch, beltway brokers, pulling strings in state politics. This is a bald-faced raid by the politically correct gang in Washington trying to undermine a grassroots movement to close the border and expel illegal aliens. Only one guy with a shred of power, Tancredo, is moving determinedly toward that end. But the national GOP doesn't abide upstarts like him and are showing him who's boss. It's always about power and wealth. I wonder if the Colorado GOP really has a feel for what Tancredo's done for them. IMO, this is another gang, aligning itself with Bush & McCain careless of the nation's needs.

Here's a more recent article. Tighter poll numbers 2 weeks later.

http://www.azstarnet.com/metro/145555.php

Poll: Giffords, Graf lead District 8 contenders
By Daniel Scarpinato
arizona daily star
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 09.07.2006
A week out from the primary election, Democrat Gabrielle Giffords and Republican Randy Graf have comfortable leads over their 8th Congressional District rivals, according an Arizona Daily Star-sponsored poll of likely voters.

The poll, conducted by Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points and polled 800 likely voters Sept. 1-4. Election Day is Tuesday.

It also found Republicans are more likely to cross party lines than Democrats in the general election.

Giffords, a former state legislator, led Democrats with support from 45.5 percent of those polled. Her closest Democratic competition is former anchorwoman Patty Weiss, who trailed by 17 points with 28.5 percent. Airline pilot Jeff Latas garnered 5 percent, Raytheon employee Alex Rodriguez 1.5 percent and Francine Shacter 1 percent, with Bill Johnson last at less than 1 percent.

On the Republican side, Graf led with 33 percent of the respondents. State Rep. Steve Huffman trailed by 8.5 points with 24.5 percent. Former party chairman Mike Hellon had 10 percent, Raytheon employee Frank Antenori received 2.8 percent and Mike Jenkins received 1 percent.

"Who knows what the last few days will hold," said pollster Carol Zimmerman. "But at this point in time, when this survey was done, you can confidently call Giffords the winner." She said Graf is also in a strong position, while noting statistically Huffman in within the margin of error of catching up to Graf.

The races are complicated by the fact that roughly 18 percent of Democrats polled were undecided, compared to nearly 29 percent undecided in the Republican race.

Giffords' campaign manager, Rodd McLeod, played down the numbers, saying "the only poll that matters is on Sept. 12." But he added: "I think that it shows that we've been really running a campaign that reaches out to voters and talks to voters about issues they care about."

The numbers fly in the face of Weiss' assertion that her name identification in Southern Arizona would counteract Giffords' advertising blitz.

Campaign spokesman Andrew Myers said the campaign is betting on "occasional voters," those who did not vote in the 2004 primary but are enthused by the competitive race and Weiss' local celebrity status.
"I think the strategies of the campaigns have been very different," he said. "We know that we're going to live and die by occasional voters."

Provided those voters don't turn out, Weiss would need to claim 93 percent of the undecideds in order to win, which would be a rarity, Zimmerman said.

"What we have found historically is if you're going in undecided, you'll go for the winner because you want to vote for a winner," she said.

Graf campaign manager R.T. Gregg said his candidate's numbers were lower than they would have been had Huffman not received financial support from national Republicans last week.

"That's not surprising because Steve Huffman's salacious and mudslinging attack has continued, and apparently will continue," he said of the numbers.

"This is a race that defies logic," he said. "I believe someone sat down in Washington and decided to play checkers, and what they didn't realize is that they're playing on a three-dimensional chessboard."

Even with nearly 30 percent of Republican voters still undecided, in a five-way race, Zimmerman said it would be difficult for Huffman to pick up a large enough bloc of voters to pull ahead.

But Huffman campaign manager Dave Stuempfle said the numbers back up the notion that "a vote for Randy Graf is a vote for Howard Dean and the national Democrats."

"Honestly, the Republican primary is the general election," he said. "Steve is the only Republican candidate who can win."

General-election forecasting

Poll questions about possible general-election matchups seem to predict that, while Huffman could have trouble winning the Republican primary, he would be a much stronger candidate against whomever the Democrats pick.

In general-election matchups, the poll indicates both Giffords and Weiss would beat Republican Graf by about 10 percent. However, when the two leading Democrats were matched up against Huffman, both races were too close to call, falling within the margin of error.

Roughly 17 percent or more of voters in each of those hypothetical cases said they were undecided, and the polling doesn't account for voters who don't vote in primaries but do vote in the general election.
Republicans also seem more likely to cross party lines.

According to the poll, both Graf and Huffman have trouble holding on to the Republican base in a matchup against Giffords, with party support for them dropping below 70 percent. Graf's Republican support sits at 65 percent in a race against Weiss, compared with 75 percent for Huffman in a matchup against the former anchor.

In each race, 400 registered voters who cast ballots in the 2004 primaries were polled by phone. Roughly 10 percent in each group were political independents. The majority — 81 percent — of those polled were from Pima County, 16 percent were from Cochise County and the rest were registered to vote in Pinal and Santa Cruz counties. The combined 800 voters polled for the head-to-head matchups translated to a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

On StarNet: The Arizona primary election is Sept. 12. Use our voter resource guide to access past articles on the 2006 election and for profiles of the candidates in each race. View the guide at azstarnet.com/politics

● Contact reporter Daniel Scarpinato at 807-7789 or dscarpinato@azstarnet.com