Assessing Mexico's narco-violence

By Benjamin Bahney and Agnes Gereben Schaefer
2:00 a.m. May 14, 2009

Drug-related violence in Mexico has more than doubled over the past 18 months, with a sharp increase in crimes that can only be understood as atrocities. The gruesome executions posted on YouTube, the assassinations of police officials and politicians, the more than 200 decapitations in the past year, and the use of high-powered weapons such as assault rifles and grenade launchers may all seem wanton and senseless. After all, these are some of the same tactics used by al-Qaeda in Iraq. But this violence actually has a purpose. It is a strategic campaign by the cartels to terrorize the Mexican public and sap support for the government's campaign to tamp down cartel activity.

President Felipe Calderón has made the war against the drug cartels the centerpiece policy of his six-year term, putting federal police and the military at the forefront of the battle until state and local police forces are reformed.

The drug lords have responded to this campaign with three types of violence. When the security forces move to disrupt the cartels, the cartels fight back in ways that maximize the potential for civilian casualties. The drug lords know that the government cannot accept much collateral damage, and the cartels are betting on a decline in public support that would eventually force the government to back down. If one cartel is weakened by the security forces, the others try to muscle in on its lucrative territory, causing even more violence. Meanwhile, the cartels are using death squads to intimidate local politicians, media and police, who are given the choice of “plata o plomo,â€