Mexico Security Memo: Jan. 21, 2008


Today » January 21, 2008 |
Expanding Operations

A security operation that began several weeks ago in Mexican border cities in Tamaulipas state expanded this past week to include more than 6,000 Mexican federal police and military troops. One of the security forces’ top objectives is to quell the drug cartel violence in the area, which has seen a series of brisk firefights over the last few weeks. U.S. law enforcement sources have suggested that the troops are searching for a small number of high-ranking members of the Gulf cartel. In addition to numerous highway checkpoints and raids, Mexican military aircraft are reportedly conducting routine flyovers of the area.

The operation has so far found limited success, with authorities saying Jan. 20 that at least 11 Gulf cartel members had been captured so far — including several who were current police officers in Nuevo Laredo. Several of those detained were believed to be lieutenants to gatekeepers, or gatekeepers themselves, in the cities of Progreso and Matamoros. Arrests at this level are about all that can be expected in this operation; higher-ranking cartel members who were targeted likely fled the area when troops began arriving, tipped off by corrupt officials on the cartel payroll (lower-ranking members would not have the resources available to flee).

ATF Attention
The U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) will assign additional personnel and resources in its efforts to fight weapons trafficking along the U.S.-Mexican border, officials at ATF’s El Paso intelligence center said this past week. The move will reportedly bring at least 50 more special agents and support staff to investigate cases of smuggling firearms and ammunition from the United States to Mexico for use by the country’s drug cartels.

A report by the Mexican attorney general’s office acquired by a Mexican newspaper this past week indicates that the Gulf cartel in particular has begun acquiring more military-grade weapons, including FN Herstal P90 submachine guns, FN Herstal 5.7 x 28mm pistols, M72 LAW (light anti-tank weapon) rocket launchers, AT4 anti-tank rockets, RPG-7 rocket-propelled grenade launchers, MGL 37mm grenade launchers and fragmentation grenades.

This weapons-trafficking problem is certainly not new, and the additional ATF attention is long overdue. Although progress will likely be slow at first, it could be an important step toward larger operations and major busts later on. More boots on the ground will solve only part of the problem. A bigger issue is the corruption on both sides of the border that continues to hamper security efforts. ATF also will continue to focus on various gun shows in U.S. border states in an effort to stem the flow of weapons into Mexico.

EPR Communique
In their first statement in more than a month, the leftist militant group Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) released a communique dated Jan. 15 in which it threatens further attacks. The threat is worded similarly to the group’s previous messages, though one important distinction in the most recent one is the announcement that EPR will now provide advance warning of all future attacks in an effort to limit human casualties. EPR added that any casualties that do occur will be the fault of the Mexican government.

Based on the announcement, there is a concern that EPR could increase its targeting of commercial and retail establishments, in addition to energy infrastructure and government installations. All of EPR’s bomb attacks in 2007 were conducted to make human casualties all but impossible — devices were set to detonate at a time and place when no people would be around. Advance warning is unnecessary for an attack against an isolated oil pipeline or a deserted commercial area in the middle of the night. The statement, then, could be an indication that the group is planning attacks with larger explosive devices or against commercial targets during business hours. In any case, EPR has once again upped the ante in its campaign against the government, and the message has likely grabbed the attention of President Felipe Calderon’s administration.


STRATFOR


Jan. 14
A man walking his dog at 3 a.m. found a plastic bag containing two severed heads in a neighborhood near Mexico City’s airport. Police later identified the two victims as suspected drug dealers.
At least 16 killings related to organized crime were reported across Mexico, making Jan. 14 one of the deadliest days so far in 2008.

Jan. 15
A high-ranking police officer in Tijuana, Baja California state, was shot to death in his home by armed assailants who also killed his wife and nine-year-old daughter. Two other police officers were shot to death as they drove near a shopping center. Three other victims were later found dead, apparently killed by the same gunmen.
The singer of a musical group was found shot to death in a car that had been set on fire in Sinaloa state.

Jan. 16
The unidentified bodies of two men were discovered in Tijuana, Baja California state. One man was found in a public area with several gunshot wounds, while the other was found inside a car that had been set ablaze.
The former public safety director of Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, was arrested on charges of bribery, drug conspiracy and possession after he attempted to bribe an undercover U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer to allow a drug shipment across the border.

Jan. 17
Three suspected arms dealers were arrested in Mexico City in possession of assault rifles, ammunition and three LAW rockets. The men were stopped by police who searched their vehicle and found the weapons in suitcases and wrapped in blankets in the trunk.
A three-hour firefight in the middle of the day in Tijuana, Baja California state, brought more than 500 soldiers and police officers to the scene. During the gunbattle, suspected Tijuana cartel members reportedly fired rocket-propelled grenades at a military helicopter and threatened security forces over a police radio frequency.

Jan. 18
The bodies of two unidentified men were found wrapped in a blanket in Nogales, Sonora state, just across the border from Nogales, Ariz.
The bodies of six unidentified people were found in an improvised grave in Chihuahua, Chihuahua state.

Jan. 19
A U.S. Customs and Border Protection agent died during the pursuit of drug smuggler’s vehicle near Yuma, Ariz. Border patrol agents were chasing two suspect vehicles that had illegally crossed the border from Mexico into Arizona. The agent was struck by one of the vehicles while he was placing spike strips in the road. Both vehicles then crossed back into Mexico.
A police officer in charge of a drug prevention program in Tijuana, Baja California state, was reportedly abducted by armed men. Unconfirmed reports indicate he was released several hours later.

Jan. 20
A group of armed men stormed the Michoacan state attorney general’s office to free two men who had been arrested the day before.
The body of an unidentified man with a single gunshot wound to the head was discovered in the Pacific port city of Lazaro Cardenas, Michoacan state.
The brother of a government official in Apatzingan, Michoacan state, was found shot to death

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