Migrant reform is uncertain

If Congress' deal crumbles, states may try on their own
Daniel González
The Arizona Republic
Jun. 10, 2007 12:00 AM

The American public, already deeply frustrated with the problem of illegal immigration and porous borders, may have to wait at least two more years for a solution if Congress doesn't pass a compromise immigration bill this summer.

Congress' failure to pass comprehensive immigration reform for the second consecutive year also would further harden ill feelings toward undocumented immigrants. It would widen already deep rifts over immigration in both parties and spur more anti-illegal-immigration measures at the state and local level.

That would make illegal immigration, already a highly contentious issue, even more difficult to solve down the road, analysts and immigration experts say.

"If nothing passes, it will be a disaster," said Tamar Jacoby, an immigration expert at the libertarian Manhattan Institute.

Immigration reform would have a major impact in Arizona, the state with the highest number of illegal border crossings and a major transportation hub for human smuggling. With 500,000 illegal immigrants, Arizona also has proportionately the biggest undocumented population.

Jacoby remains optimistic the Senate will pass a bipartisan compromise, despite the beating a reform bill took last week from both sides of the aisle. She expects the measure will win final approval from the House and President Bush. Bush backs the bill and wants to sign reform legislation.

The compromise would tighten borders, institute a new employee verification system and give many of the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants a pathway to legal status. It also would create a temporary-worker program aimed at meeting future labor demands, thus reducing the pressure for workers to enter illegally.

Arizona voters support the Senate compromise by a substantial margin, with 58 percent in favor compared with 39 percent opposed, according to a poll released Thursday by Public Opinion Strategies, a national Republican polling firm. The poll, conducted on behalf of the Arizona Latino Republican Association, had a margin of error of 4.3 percent.

"Most of the public is sick of this problem and wants something done," said Jacoby, who supports the compromise.

National polls say the public supports a solution that combines tough enforcement with earned legalization for undocumented immigrants. Both parties are eager to get the issue off the table: Democrats to show they can lead, and Republicans before it tears their party apart, she said.

Other analysts, however, aren't so sanguine.

Louis DiSipio, a political science professor at the University of California-Irvine, doesn't believe immigration reform will pass this year.

"There are too many forces in play to craft a compromise," he said, including conservative Republicans opposed to any kind of legalization for undocumented immigrants and pro-union Democrats opposed to a temporary-worker program.

Last year, Congress reached a stalemate on immigration after the Senate passed a comprehensive bill and the House passed a bill heavy on enforcement.

If Congress fails to pass a comprehensive bill again this year, lawmakers likely won't take up the issue of comprehensive immigration reform again until 2009 because next year is a presidential election year. Both Republicans and Democrats would be afraid that passing a bill could hurt their party's chances of winning the White House.

"It's just too contentious to pass major immigration reform in a presidential year," DiSipio said.

Other analysts predict a backlash from state and local governments if Congress doesn't pass a bill this year.

"If it doesn't pass, you are going to see an explosion of (immigration) legislation on the state and municipal level," said Rodolfo Espino, a political science professor at Arizona State University.

In November, Arizona voters passed four ballot initiatives aimed at curbing rights and eliminating some services to illegal immigrants, among them a measure that denies in-state tuition to students without legal status. The Legislature also is working to pass an employer sanctions bill intended to ensure businesses don't hire illegal workers.

Around the nation, other cities and counties have passed new laws or are considering proposals aimed at clamping down on illegal immigration, including measures prohibiting landlords from leasing to undocumented immigrants, punishing businesses that employ them, and training local police to double as federal immigration agents.

It's possible Congress may pass pieces of the comprehensive immigration bill being debated, even if lawmakers fail to pass the entire package, experts say.

The possibilities include the Agricultural Job Opportunities, Benefits and Security Act, which includes a temporary-worker program for farmers, and the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors Act, which would provide a path to citizenship for undocumented students.

"We might also see a better employee verification system or border security to provide some evidence Congress is working on this," said John Garcia, a University of Arizona political science professor.


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