Bachmann leads with border security voters, new Iowa survey shows

7-11-2011

Jennifer Jacobs

A new survey of likely Republican caucusgoers shows Minnesota’s Michele Bachmann and Massachusetts’ Mitt Romney remain at the top of the heap in Iowa.

Bachmann claims 25 percent support with Romney on her heels at 21 percent, within the margin of error of ± 4.4 percent, in a Voter/Consumer Research poll sponsored by the conservative blog TheIowaRepublican.com.

Bachmann, a four-year congresswoman, ranks particularly high with likely caucusgoers who said border security is a top concern, snagging a 36 percent share among these voters.

She leads in all media markets except Sioux City, where Romney is on top, the survey found. She is especially strong in the Davenport area, where she has campaigned just once.

Two third-place finishers are a dozen points below Romney: Georgia’s Herman Cain and Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty each pulled in 9 percent.

Texas’ Ron Paul takes 6 percent, followed by Georgia’s Newt Gingrich at 4 percent, Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum at 2 percent and Utah’s Jon Huntsman at 1 percent.

The Republican-leaning Voter/Consumer Research interviewed 500 likely caucusgoers by telephone June 26-30.

Television news and newspapers were the most popular avenues for catching up on news, while relatively few mentioned the Internet as their primary source of information, the survey found.

Bachmann does equally well regardless of the voters’ source of information, while Romney fares poorly among those who cited radio as their news source of choice.

One of the radio talk show hosts who influenced the caucuses four years ago, Steve Deace, has new analysis out this morning predicting Bachmann will win the 2012 caucuses with 36 percent, followed by Pawlenty at 20 and Paul at 16. Deace is no longer on WHO NewsRadio in Des Moines, but last election cycle used the format to broadcast strong criticism of Romney.

The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll taken June 19-22 shows Romney with 23 percent, Bachmann with 22 percent, Cain with 10 percent, Paul and Gingrich with 7 percent, Pawlenty with 6 percent, Santorum with 4 percent and Huntsman with 2 percent.

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com