Thread: DC Area Population Losses Offset by Immigrants

Area Population Losses Offset by Immigrants

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01935.html

By N.C. Aizenman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, December 22, 2006; Page A01

Maryland and the District are losing residents to other jurisdictions but making up for the loss by gaining immigrants, according to new census estimates released today. Virginia has followed a similar pattern, attracting vastly more newcomers from overseas than from within the United States and growing only marginally since 2000.

The influx of immigrants has saved the three jurisdictions from what might otherwise be a precipitous population decline.

Although the data released today are limited to the state level, several demographers said they also think the information provides further confirmation of the Washington area's steady transformation from a relatively inexpensive Southern area into a Northeastern metropolis whose rising housing costs are pricing Americans out of its downtown and close-in suburbs even as the region remains an immigrant gateway.

"I used to think of Washington, D.C., as a bridge between the Northeast and the South. But these numbers suggest it's becoming more like the Northeast," said William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. "For most of D.C.'s history, it's been a white-black area. If these changes continue, it will become more of a global city. Over time, it will probably end up looking like Boston or New York."

Robert E. Lang, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, said the shift, which dates to at least the mid-1990s, was apparent in Northern Virginia.

"Virginia used to be the northern reach of the sunbelt," he said. "But now, Northern Virginia is truly part of the D.C.-to-Boston corridor. It's got costs as high as New Jersey and Massachusetts, and it's pushing people out just like those places are."

Rising housing costs are less of a deterrent to immigrants. Many are high-tech workers or embassy staffers with high salaries. Those at the bottom end of the economic spectrum are often drawn by family ties or a connection to a job.

"They might be willing to live in conditions that may not be satisfactory to local residents," Frey said.

The impact of immigrants on the region was profound.

In Maryland, the departure of 25,600 residents for other states between July 1, 2005, and July 1, 2006, was offset by the arrival of about 21,100 immigrants and about 30,200 more births than deaths -- including many births to immigrants -- resulting in a population increase of less than 1 percent, to about 5.6 million.

"A lot of the outflow is people moving from Maryland's outer counties to border states like West Virginia, Delaware and Pennsylvania, where the housing costs are lower, and then commuting back to work in Maryland," said Mark Goldstein, an economist with the Maryland Department of Planning's State Data Center.

The District's population remained almost even, with the roughly 6,800 residents who moved out just about matched by the 3,900 or so immigrants who moved in and about 2,400 more births than deaths.

Last year, District officials complained that census analysts had substantially underestimated the city's population, providing data that persuaded them to adjust the figure upward. However, Joy Phillips, associate director of the District's State Data Center, said this year's estimates did not seem off-base. Although high-rise condominiums continue to sprout across Northwest and downtown, many of those units are drawing singles or childless couples who have less effect on population growth.

"We're going to be looking at our housing data to make sure the numbers are as accurate as possible," Phillips said. "But we're definitely not screaming" about the accuracy of the data. Virginia's 1 percent population increase, to 7.6 million, was also overwhelmingly fueled by the arrival of immigrants, with about 29,700 people moving in from overseas compared with 4,200 from within the country.

"If it weren't for immigration, we'd be Pittsburgh," said Lang, referring to that city's fabled contraction after its steel mills closed.

Indeed, Maryland, Virginia and the District fit in with a larger Northeastern and Midwestern pattern of hemorrhaging residents to the South. According to the new census figures, from April 1, 2000, to July 1, 2006, about 1.8 million people moved out of the Northeast. And about 1.1 million left the Midwest. By contrast, more than 2.6 million people moved into the South from other U.S. areas.

The Northeast's and Midwest's population losses were partially offset by the arrival of more than 1.6 million and 1 million immigrants, respectively. But the South saw the arrival of more than 2.4 million immigrants -- contributing to an overall population growth of nearly 9 percent.

"The larger point of all this is that the South is rising again," Lang said.

Only this time, the Washington metropolitan area may not be a part of it.

If these changes continue, it will become more of a global city. Over time, it will probably end up looking like Boston or New York."

Or more likely, it will look like Los Angeles, that is to say like Mexico City.

Notice how they say immigrants, but nowhere do they mention the word "illegal"?