Births decline in Arizona, Pima County
More info

Births
by the
numbers

Pima County

2008* 11,277

2007 11,589

2006 11,555

2005 10,778

2004 10,873

Arizona

2008* 82,814

2007 91,722

2006 84,665

2005 79,494

2004 77,345

*Through October




November 28, 2008, 5:37 p.m.
HEIDI ROWLEY
Tucson Citizen

The miserable economy may have killed the mood for romance: Baby births are down in Arizona, and experts say they could drop further as a growing economic crisis dampens couples' desire for starting a family.

According to the Arizona Department of Health Services, 82,814 babies were born in the state through October this year, down almost 10 percent from the same period in 2007, when 91,722 babies were born.

The decline isn't quite as dramatic in Pima County where 11,277 babies were born from January through October, down 2.6 percent from the year before, when 11,589 were born.

Blame the baby blip on the sour economy, a slight slowdown in regional population growth and stepped-up enforcement of illegal-immigration laws that may have caused a drop in the pool of childbearing-age women, according to doctors, demographers and economists.

Last year, Arizona already was seeing the effects of an economic downturn, caused largely by the housing slump and foreclosures. Also, the state was preparing to enforce the employer-sanctions law, aimed at cracking down on illegal immigration.

Generally, births go up in good times and down in bad, experts say. Look to other U.S. recessionary periods as evidence, including the Great Depression and post-9/11.

"It's just about every cycle where there is any kind of significant downturn where you'd see this," said Tom Rex, associate director of the Center for Competitiveness and Prosperity Research at Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business.

"I wouldn't be surprised that, as the months go on, now the economic factors would be playing more and more of a role in the drop-offs of births. Toss in Arizona's employer-sanctions law and you can probably see a real sizable effect here for a number of months to come."

However, 2006 and 2007 were record years for babies born in the state, with more than 102,000 babies born each year.

In Pima County and statewide, the 2008 numbers are a 3 percent to 4 percent increase over five years ago. In 2004, 10,873 babies were born in Pima County from January through October, with 77,345 born in the first 10 months of 2004 statewide.
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