Thread: Border crossing numbers are down. Our View: Blame it on the

The illegal indicator The Issue: Border crossing numbers are down. Our View: Blame it on the economy.
April 9, 2008

Finally, a means has emerged of checking illegal immigration that doesn't involve fences, patrols, sanctions or mass deportations; indeed it operates almost automatically — recession.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the number of illegal immigrants apprehended along the U.S.-Mexico border had dropped steeply, down 17 percent the last six months from a year earlier. In the Yuma, Ariz. sector, apprehensions are off by 76 percent. At work is a combination of beefed up border patrols, tighter security, and the economic downturn.

Clearly, the increased focus on the border along with employer sanctions and aggressive ID checks have had a big impact. But, says the Journal, "Economists and others point to another key influence, the state of the U.S. economy, in particular the ailing housing industry."

Also hard hit are day labor centers, where the demand for landscapers and painters is also sensitive to the larger economy.

One illegal immigrant in the Chicago area who was driving a cab because construction work had dried up said he was thinking of going back home, the implication being, however, that he would sneak back if times improved.

And that brings up another point. One research economist told the Journal that apprehensions of illegal immigrants are considered a leading indicator, meaning they are early warning signs of what is to come.

These numbers begin to fall as much as a year before an economic downturn, then pick up again in advance of good times.

We'll know our economy is making a comeback when the illegal border crossers do likewise.

www.courierpress.com

Have the numbers gone down because of the U.S.-Mexican border pilot truck project.....sneaking in in semis?