Thread: Bush's Rosy View of Economy Doesn't Mesh With Public Percept

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Bush's Rosy View of Economy Doesn't Mesh With Public Perception



May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Ellen Westbrook, an employment counselor in Asheville, North Carolina, says she just rolls her eyes when she hears about how the U.S. economy is strong and getting stronger.

``I've seen 300 manufacturing jobs disappear down here in the last three weeks,'' she says. ``How can I think the economy is good when I am watching high-paying jobs disappear overseas?''

Asheville, a city of 70,000 nestled in the scenic mountains of western North Carolina, would seem to confirm the view of President George W. Bush and Wall Street economists that job growth, consumer spending and low inflation show the U.S. is on the right course. The unemployment rate in the Asheville area, 4.4 percent, is below the national average.

That doesn't impress Westbrook, nor large numbers of other Americans, according to public-opinion and other surveys that show dissatisfaction with the economy and pessimism about the future. The University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence fell for a fifth straight month in May, the longest series of declines since 2002.

The gap between the perceptions of Bush and many economists on one side, and the public on the other, has high stakes for the president. Bush is holding firm to his economic policies of tax cuts, free trade and putting more of the burden for retirement security and health on individuals; meanwhile, even some of his fellow Republicans in Congress are starting to heed voter anxiety over the economy.

Worried About Jobs

Republican Representative Charles Taylor, whose district includes Asheville, says he's worried about local job losses and blames free-trade agreements for sending manufacturers overseas. ``A lot of people in western North Carolina feel that we've been dumped on by China,'' says Taylor, who faces re-election next year. Robust economic expansion has bypassed the region, he says, ``and some areas are worse than before.''

Bureau of Labor Statistics data underscore the point. In January, 2001, the Asheville area had 4,900 more manufacturing jobs than it did at the end of 2004. During the same time, the region gained 8,900 service-sector jobs, which typically pay less.

One person who watched her job vanish is Carol Stephenson, who describes herself as an enthusiastic supporter of Bush in the last two elections. A 60-year-old widow with two grown children, Stephenson worked at Lustar Dyeing and Finishing in Asheville, which produced fabrics for clothing manufacturers from 1989 until the plant closed in April. That crushed her enthusiasm for Bush.

`Jaded'

``It's because of the economy,'' says Stephenson, who expects to work for ``a good deal less'' than the $23,000 she made last year at Lustar -- once she finds a job. ``I think his views on the economy are jaded. They don't take into account what we are going through.''

Bush remains optimistic. In his May 14 radio address, the last time he focused specifically on the subject, the president said reports showing the nation added 274,000 jobs in April and unemployment stayed at 5.2 percent were ``new signs that the pro- growth policies we have pursued during the past four years are having a positive effect on our economy.'' Bush called the U.S. economy ``the envy of the world.''

Bush's view was buttressed by U.S. government data released May 27 that showed Americans' incomes and consumer spending rose in April and that gasoline prices declined in May.

The White House isn't the only place where optimism on the economy prevails; many economists agree with the president's view. ``The economy is going the speed limit,'' Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Pittsburgh, said after the Commerce Department reported May 26 that the economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the first quarter. ``It doesn't look like the economy is soft at all, and we're off to a good start in the current quarter.''

Public Perception

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted May 12-16 illustrates the gap between Bush and the public: 42 percent of those surveyed said the economy has worsened in the past year, the highest-such reading in two years. For the first time in Bush's presidency, a majority says the economy will be in worse shape a year from now, according to the poll. More than 60 percent say Bush hasn't paid enough attention to record gasoline prices, jobs and health care.

``You can't tell the American people, `Happy days are here again,' if they're angry about gas prices and afraid for their jobs,'' says Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who helped devise and sell the ``Contract With America'' that helped his party take control of Congress in 1994. ``They won't believe it.''

To counter that, more than 60 Republican lawmakers hit local news and talk radio shows over the Memorial Day holiday weekend to talk about what their party has accomplished on the economy over the past four years.

Fueling the Economy

``We're reminding people that we passed tax cuts back in the first Bush administration that has helped fuel the economy, which is growing jobs,'' says Ron Bonjean, spokesman for House Speaker Dennis Hastert, an Illinois Republican. ``We have to do a better job of that.''

Voters are ``more concerned than they were a month ago, and more concerned than they were two months ago,'' says Representative Chris Shays, a Connecticut Republican. ``It's not just national debt. It's the IOUs in Social Security, the IOUs in Medicare, the trade deficits that have transferred wealth overseas. They're concerned as well over high oil prices.''

Representative Ed Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, says he sees a direct correlation between Bush's slumping job approval rating -- 47 percent in the NBC/Journal poll -- and his rating on the economy, which was at 43 percent in the survey. ``That is always the most powerful factor in determining favorability,'' Markey says.

Contentious Issues

Bush's rating on the economy also may make it more difficult for him to get his way on contentious issues like overhauling the Social Security system and making permanent the income-tax cuts he won during his first term.

``A president who gets low marks for his handling of issues can have a hard time getting legislation through Congress,'' says Evans Witt, a Washington-based pollster and president of Princeton Survey Research Inc.

Democrats say that public anxieties about America's economic course, if they persist, will provide political opportunities in the 2006 elections, in which every House seat and 34 of 100 in the Senate are up for a vote. Republicans hold majorities in both chambers.

``There is a real disconnect between what people see when they turn on their TV and see what Congress is doing, and the problems they are facing at home,'' says Bill Burton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, referring to recent congressional sparring over Bush judicial nominations, gay marriage and the case of brain-damaged Florida woman Terri Schiavo.

Gasoline, Health, Jobs

``At some point, people are going to begin to wonder what their congressman is doing about gas prices, health care and jobs,'' he says.

North Carolina's Taylor is one of the targets in the sights of Democrats trying to wrest control of Congress, Burton says, citing his support for Bush's Social Security proposals and his ties to embattled House Majority Leader Tom DeLay; the district's economic concerns add to his vulnerability.

Across the country, perceptions about the economy are forming the environment in which the 2006 election battle will be fought, says Carroll Doherty, associate director of the Pew Center for the People and the Press, a Washington organization that conducts national polling.

``We're seeing job-approval numbers for Congress come down,'' he says. ``There is a growing sense out there that the government -- the president, the Congress -- isn't focusing on the issues that the people care about. For politicians, that's risky territory.''



To contact the reporter on this story:
Richard Keil in Washington at dkeil@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 31, 2005 00:09 EDT

Maybe Bush should get his head out of his... and stop these free trade aggreements, close the borders and impose tarriffs on imoprts.

Across the country, perceptions about the economy are forming the environment in which the 2006 election battle will be fought, says Carroll Doherty, associate director of the Pew Center for the People and the Press, a Washington organization that conducts national polling.

``We're seeing job-approval numbers for Congress come down,'' he says. ``There is a growing sense out there that the government -- the president, the Congress -- isn't focusing on the issues that the people care about. For politicians, that's risky territory.''

Bush's Rosy View of Economy Doesn't Mesh With Public Perception

Ya think?

Used to be that a person wearing rose colored glasses and seeing the world that way was smokin' weed.

Wonder what he's been smokin'? We know he's probably been smokin' it with Fox, so it's obviously the "good stuff"!!

Let's see.

The lower paying jobs are all going to the illegals, who end up driving the pay scale even lower.

The higher paying technical jobs are being outsourced to India and Asia, or being done here by H1B visa holders.

I guess if you're a member of the elite in America, everything does look rosy.