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  1. #1
    Senior Member FedUpinFarmersBranch's Avatar
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    CaLatinos expected to play key role in presidential election

    POLITICS: Latinos expected to play key role in presidential election
    Population segment now experiencing close inspection
    By EDWARD SIFUENTES - Staff Writer | Saturday, July 12, 2008 4:29 PM PDT ∞

    With Latinos expected to play a critical role in November's presidential election, the fast-growing segment of the electorate is coming under increasing scrutiny.

    Several reports and polls released in recent months attempt to shed light on what has been an elusive segment of the population to classify politically.

    The reports show a significant growth in the Latino electorate and also suggest that group is increasingly turning to the Democratic Party because of heated rhetoric over immigration among Republican lawmakers.

    Marching into that fray this week are presidential rivals Barack Obama and John McCain.

    The presidential candidates are in San Diego to appeal for the support of thousands of Latinos attending the annual conference of the National Council of La Raza, one of the country's largest civil rights organizations.

    Latinos' potential to make a difference in November is reflected in the numbers. A Census Bureau report released last month shows that 5.6 million Latinos voted in the 2006 general election, an increase of 18 percent over 2002.

    Many of those voters live in states political analysts consider key to winning the White House ---- Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

    In California, 23 percent of eligible voters are Latino, according to the Pew Hispanic Center, a research organization that focuses on the Latino population.

    In a recent report, the center projected that of the 18.2 million Latinos eligible to vote in the country, about 8.6 million will show up to the polls in November. That would be a million more than in 2004.

    With the next president expected to take up the thorny issue of immigration reform, the candidates' views on the matter are considered to be key in swaying Latino voters, said Frank Sharry, executive director of American's Voice, a pro-immigrant advocacy organization.

    "Without the Latino vote no candidate can claim a clear advantage during the election, and their position on immigration reform will be a defining factor in whether or not they receive the support of Latino voters," Sharry said.

    A crucial vote

    The candidates are expected to address their ideas for overhauling the nation's immigration system when they speak at the La Raza conference this week.

    Obama, the Democratic senator from Illinois, is scheduled to speak at the event Sunday, followed by Republican McCain of Arizona on Monday.

    Both candidates supported a failed immigration reform bill last year that included a plan for legalizing millions of undocumented immigrants. But they have criticized each other on the issue in recent months.

    McCain has charged that Obama was largely absent from bipartisan negotiations to draft the measure.

    Obama has criticized McCain for later withdrawing his support and instead backing calls for strong border security measures first.

    Local Latino activists said last week that they are looking forward to hearing how each candidate would now handle immigration reform. But it remains unclear what role Latino voters in the county will play in both local and national elections.

    Recent studies indicate the Latino population, which is about 40 percent in some North County cities, is increasing. But there has been relatively little analysis of the local Latino electorate.

    In 2002, Latino registered voters were estimated to make up about 15 percent, or roughly 201,000, of the county's 1.3 million voters. About 41,000 of them were estimated to live in North County, according to an analysis done by a Republican marketing consultant at that time.

    In a similar review, Latinos made up about 16 percent of the nearly 800,000 people who voted in February's presidential elections in the county, according to Datamar Inc., an El Cajon-based polling and electoral data company.

    The data was culled from the county's registrar of voters information by running it through a computer program that identifies Latino names, said Datamar President Raul Furlong.

    Because California is such an overwhelmingly Democratic state, most political analysts say Latino voters here are unlikely to play a decisive role in the presidential election.

    California is one of 17 states, largely clustered in the West and Northeast areas of the country, where voters have chosen Democratic candidates in each of the last four presidential elections, said Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic political strategist.

    The battleground states where Latinos can influence the election are expected to be Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, he said. These are states with significant Latino populations and no clear advantage for either party in the general electorate.

    "There is no way to win if they (the candidates) don't win a substantial number of the Latino vote in these states," Rosenberg said.

    A stark choice

    The key for a McCain victory is to win more than 40 percent of the Latino vote nationwide, Rosenberg said. The problem for McCain is that recent polls show he is far behind Obama in attracting potential Latino voters, he said.

    A Gallup poll released July 2 reported that 59 percent of Latino registered voters preferred Obama over McCain, 29 percent.

    That poll paints a misleading picture, according to Raoul Lowery Contreras, a Republican political commentator and freelance columnist for the North County Times.

    A recent AP-Yahoo News poll that showed Obama leading McCain among Hispanics, 47 percent to 22 percent, is more accurate because it narrows the survey to likely voters, Contreras said.

    The Gallup poll includes new voters, who tend to favor Obama, but can be unreliable in showing up to vote on election day, he said.

    McCain needs to win a little more than a third of the Latino vote to win the presidency, Contreras said. He said Republican candidates that have won at least 35 percent of Latino votes since 1968 have won the White House, Contreras said.

    Contreras said he also believes that Obama will have a hard time getting more than 47 percent of the Latino vote.

    That is because there are segments of the Latino population that would not vote for Obama, such as culturally conservative, anti-abortion, and, in some cases, anti-black voters, he said.

    "Given such a stark choice, enough Latinos will vote for McCain," he said.

    Others, such as Rosenberg, disagree. McCain, he said, has a difficult task in attract significant numbers of Latinos because of the Republican Party's use of illegal immigration as a wedge issue in recent years.

    "McCain is facing a very difficult situation because his party has been branded as anti-immigrant and the question is can he overcome that?" he said.

    Contact staff writer Edward Sifuentes at (760) 740-3511 or esifuentes@nctimes.com.

    http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/07 ... 590828.txt
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  2. #2
    Senior Member Populist's Avatar
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    because of the Republican Party's use of illegal immigration as a wedge issue in recent years.
    We're seeing alot of this type of tired, predictable story from the MSM. Seriously, I wish they would stop quoting open-border, pro-illegal alien hack Frank Sharry.

    Enforcing the law and stopping a disastrous amnesty bill that was drafted in secret by radical special interests who wanted to ram this down Americans' throats with no public input -- was not a "wedge issue" rather it was the responsible, sane, and moral thing to do. And it stopped what would have been terrible public policy.
    Join our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)

  3. #3
    Senior Member MyAmerica's Avatar
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    "Without the Latino vote no candidate can claim a clear advantage during the election, and their position on immigration reform will be a defining factor in whether or not they receive the support of Latino voters," Sharry said.
    Without the AMERICAN vote how can either candidate win?
    "Distrust and caution are the parents of security."
    Benjamin Franklin

    Join our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)

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