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06-07-2006, 12:50 AM #1
California vote could be midterm bellwether
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/06 ... y.preview/
California vote could be midterm bellwether
Primaries test ethics, immigration issues for November
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The much hyped Democratic political wave could show its first sign of forming Tuesday in California's primary election, as San Diego voters choose a replacement for former GOP Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham.
The special election to replace Cunningham -- who's serving a prison sentence for taking bribes -- is part of several marquee primary races taking place across the country as a handful of intraparty fights are settled in Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota.
Alabama, California, Iowa and South Dakota all have gubernatorial contests. In Montana, Democrats will choose a nominee to challenge GOP Sen. Conrad Burns, while New Mexico Republicans will pick a candidate to challenge Democratic Sen. Jeff Bingaman. Republicans and Democrats in Iowa and New Jersey will also choose candidates for open House seats.
But it is California that is ground zero.
What should have been an easy race for the GOP is now considered a toss-up primarily because of Cunningham's admission that he accepted bribes and is now serving time in prison. National Democrats and Republicans have poured money into this contest that has focused on two main issues: Ethics and illegal immigration.
Ethics versus immigration
Democratic nominee Francine Busby has been talking up the ethics issue, echoing calls by congressional Democrats that it's time for a change in Washington, while former Rep. Brian Bilbray, R-California, has dug in his heels on the issue of illegal immigration. He hopes to appeal to conservatives who say President Bush's proposed "path toward U.S. citizenship" for illegals living in the United States is unacceptable because it amounts to amnesty.
Marshall Wittmann, a senior fellow at the Democratic Leadership Council, describes this race as being the "canary-in-the-coal-mine election" to see if a Democratic wave is forming and Busby is able to ride it to victory in this reliably Republican district.
"Clearly a win for Democrats will mean there is a huge momentum" for the party, Wittman said. "People will divine from that, perhaps, a wave is on the way."
A school of thought holds that Bush's sagging approval rating, voter unhappiness with the Iraq war, and recent ethics scandals are strong enough issues to create a political wave that could sweep Republicans out of power in the House and Senate in November.
Elections to test voter issues
This special election will also serve as a laboratory to see if the Democratic "Culture of Corruption" campaign theme and illegal immigration are resonating as issues with voters.
Wittmann suggests that a Bilbray win will actually be considered a victory by people who advocated strict immigration laws.
"Rather than being great meaning for the Republican Party as a whole, it will be interpreted by the Republican Right as a vindication for their position on closing down the borders," Wittmann said. "And the rest of the Republican Party will just breathe a sigh of relief."
But Terence Jeffrey, editor of Human Events, said that while he thinks that Democrats "have a chance to take back the House in November" he argued that too much is being made about the outcome of this election. Jeffrey said the corruption issue is more prominent in this district than in others because of Cunningham and the fact is that Bilbray is "more liberal than what the community is" and is a lobbyist at a time when that profession is under scrutiny.
"I am not sure he is the right candidate," said Jeffrey. "He is definitely not a champion of the conservative movement. Bilbray is not the kind of guy that is going to drive out the conservative vote."
Bilbray will need a strong turnout from conservatives to win today, while Busby is counting on Democrats and disaffected Republicans and Independents to help her squeak out a victory. National Democrats and Republicans are taking no chances. In addition to spending millions on advertising, they are also helping organize get out the vote operations throughout the district.
Schwarzenegger opponent to be named
Today will also bring to an end a divisive gubernatorial primary in the Golden State.
Democrats will nominate either State Treasurer Phil Angelides or State Controller Steve Westly to take on Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in November.
Angelides and Westly have spent millions attacking each other, causing some Democrats to be concerned that the winner will be weakened heading into the general election contest.
California voters also must decide whether they want to keep alive the political career of term-limited Oakland mayor and former Gov. Jerry Brown, who is running for attorney general against Los Angeles City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo, according to The Associated Press.
Montana showdown
In Montana, revelations of three-term Republican Sen. Burns' ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff have made him one of the most vulnerable members of Congress, inspiring a vigorous contest among Democrats for the right to face him this November.
Burns has blamed the "Eastern liberal press" for his troubles and predicted that Montana voters "will make the right judgment call," AP reports.
The issues in Alabama include tax policy, social conservatism and immigration, as GOP Gov. Bob Riley's failed tax increases have spurred both a Republican primary and a heated contest among Democrats, according to AP.
Former Judge Roy Moore is challenging Riley for the GOP nomination, after gaining social conservatives' notice for his unsuccessful fight to put a Ten Commandments monument in his courthouse.
CNN Political Editor Mark Preston contributed to this report.Support our FIGHT AGAINST illegal immigration & Amnesty by joining our E-mail Alerts at http://eepurl.com/cktGTn
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06-07-2006, 01:33 AM #2
Bilbray by 7 points right now.
I didn't see any reference in the article about Busby encouraging illegals to vote, although they did manage to mention Cunningham and bribes.It's like hell vomited and the Bush administration appeared.
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06-07-2006, 02:01 AM #3
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FYI: I posted unnofficial RESULTS in the Gen. Disc.
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06-07-2006, 02:10 AM #4Originally Posted by CountFloydSupport our FIGHT AGAINST illegal immigration & Amnesty by joining our E-mail Alerts at https://eepurl.com/cktGTn
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06-07-2006, 02:21 AM #5Originally Posted by 2ndamendsis
http://www.alipac.us/modules.php?name=F ... ic&t=30532Support our FIGHT AGAINST illegal immigration & Amnesty by joining our E-mail Alerts at http://eepurl.com/cktGTn
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06-07-2006, 02:23 AM #6
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Thanx Brian...
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