Thread: Can Calif. deliver gold for Romney?

Can Calif. deliver gold for Romney?
By: Lisa Lerer
February 5, 2008 10:33 AM EST

LONG BEACH, Calif. - Mitt Romney's last rally before votes began to be cast Tuesday was in California - and that's no accident.

The engine of Romney's Super Tuesday machine is California, and for good reason. The hotly-contested state packs the biggest electoral punch of any primary: a powerhouse of 173 delegates awarded by congressional district.

How Romney does in California will have a serious impact on whether he invests the necessary funds to continue his candidacy into the spring. Over the past few days, Romney has pumped money into the state, buying about $2 million dollars worth of television ads.

In a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released Tuesday, the former Massachusetts governor held a 7-point advantage over Arizona Sen. John McCain in the Golden State, though other polls have shown a closer race.

But Romney's campaign is leaving nothing to chance. The candidate flew 12 hours to deliver a roughly 15-minute speech in a Long Beach airport hanger Monday night. As he's done for the past week, Romney tried to differentiate himself from McCain by trying to claim the mantel of California's conservative favorite son, Ronald Reagan.

"One of the reasons I came back to California is I know the Republicans in California care very deeply about the heart and soul of the Republican party," he said to a screaming audience of several hundred.

"I think the course of our party is going to be set by what happens in California tomorrow."

Romney says his campaign senses a "groundswell of support" happening in California. On Monday night, he attributed the renewed interest to his debate performance last week and a Saturday night win in the little-contested Maine caucuses.

The support may have come too late. State officials estimate that as much as half of Californians voted by mail. Those voters filled out their absentee ballots before Romney's alleged surge.

Romney downplayed the importance of a big California win in a Monday afternoon stop at an Atlanta conference center.

"We are going out to Long Beach to put a punctuation point on the support we are getting there," Romney told reporters in Atlanta. He refused to speculate about whether he would drop out of the race if he loses the state. "We'll have to evaluate all those outcomes if and when they occur," he said.

McCain also planned an 11th-hour appearance in the state on Tuesday morning, before going to Phoenix to watch the election results. Last Thursday, McCain nabbed the coveted endorsement of California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Romney's late-night stop, put on the schedule less then 24 hours before, reflects the importance of the state to his campaign, which must stop McCain's momentum or see the Arizonan put the race away.

"He's pointing out to the California GOP that it's up to you to keep me in this race and he's laying it straight on," said Republican consultant Chris LaCivita, who is uncommitted in the race.

Winning California would be a huge psychological boost for Romney. But even less than a complete victory could help Romney convincingly stay in the race.

"Come Wednesday morning his decision will be based not on the number of states he and McCain have each won but on the number of delegates he's landed," said unaffiliated Republican strategist Dan Schnur. "If Romney can win a lot of California districts, it adds to his pile."

Romney hopes to milk the rich, fiscally conservative suburbs of northern San Diego and Sacramento for enough delegates to keep him in the race.

Northern San Diego also has a large Mormon population. Over the past four years, large Mormon temples opened in Newport Beach and Redlands, California. In the Nevada primary, Romney benefited from a huge Mormon turn-out.

The rally in Long Beach was Romney's chance to sell and mobilize the base one last time. Romney was energized and engaged; particularly considering the rally happened at 11 p.m. Eastern, the candidate's normal bedtime. He stood alongside several members of the Romney family, including his brothers and California-based actress sister.

Long considered the establishment candidate, Romney painted himself as an underdog running an insurgent campaign.

He loudly touted his conservative bonafides, painting himself as the "true" conservative in the race.

"California has something to say about the direction of our party and who our nominee is going to be," said Romney.

But on late Monday night, poll numbers took a backseat to some human concerns: getting some sleep on the red-eye flight back to the East Coast.

He planned to stretch out in the aisle, assuming the flight attendants agreed not to let the serving cart “hit his little toes.â€

I hope that Romney manages to hold the line.

Originally Posted by Richard

I hope that Romney manages to hold the line.

Hey Richard, you deliver MA and we will deliver CA! Assuming there is not big time vote fraud, you never know out here.