http://www.pe.com

Candidate jolts campaigns
BORDER SECURITY: The Minuteman co-founder's run brings the issue to the forefront for 2006, experts say.

12:18 AM PST on Wednesday, December 7, 2005

By SHARON McNARY and CLAIRE VITUCCI / The Press-Enterprise

Win or lose, Jim Gilchrist's independent congressional campaign and its laser focus on illegal immigration will influence how other politicians take up the issue in 2006, political experts said Tuesday.

"There are a lot of politicians who do not want to say the 'I' word," said Steven Camarota, a Washington, D.C.-based researcher with the Center for Immigration Studies.

A good showing by Minuteman Project co-founder Gilchrist, he said, "sends the message that this is an issue that's OK to talk about."

He cited the 2004 campaign of Inland Rep. David Dreier, R-San Dimas. It was a closer race than any of his previous races. Political experts blamed that on questions about whether Dreier was tough enough on illegal immigration. Since the election, Dreier has made immigration reform one of his top issues.

In his campaign for the 48th District seat in Orange County, Gilchrist is "trying to call attention to an issue or set of issues that major candidates have been unwilling to address in a systematic way," said Camarota. His organization favors stronger enforcement of immigration laws.

"If the Republican Party continues down this road ... it's going to tear the party apart."

Gilchrist ran a long-shot campaign as an American Independent Party candidate against state Sen. John Campbell, R-Irvine and Democrat Steve Young. Gilchrist placed third in the Oct. 4 primary, getting 15 percent of the vote and a spot on Tuesday's special election ballot for the 48th District that reaches from Dana Point to Newport Beach.

Although Gilchrist is an independent, his message appeals to conservative Republicans who feel their party is leaning too far toward business interests that favor a guest worker program.

Pressure to Act

Doris Meissner, commissioner of the Immigration and Naturalization Service under President Clinton, said public concern over illegal immigration is growing, as is pressure on Congress to act.

Speaking before Tuesday's ballot count, Meissner said: "Whichever way it goes, it will have resonance within the immigration debate."

But it's unlikely that will translate into a ballot box win just yet, Meissner said, citing the Virginia governor's race last month. Republican Jerry Kilgore slammed Democrat Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine throughout the campaign for being soft on immigration. Kaine won.

Frank Sharry, of the National Immigration Forum, an immigrant-advocacy group, said past elections have shown Republicans failed when they were seen as too far to the right on illegal immigration.

"The Gilchrist candidacy is more of a flash in the pan than the beginning of a trend," Sharry said. "Here's my prediction: That within two election cycles, playing the anti-immigrant card will hurt Republicans more than it helps them."

Republicans running for Congress next year will have to address illegal immigration or face the wrath of disaffected voters who feel government is ignoring the issue, said Howie Morgan, Gilchrist's former campaign manager.

"I have no doubt that the leaders of the Minuteman movement, Jim Gilchrist and Chris Simcox, will become political players throughout the country in the 2006 elections," said Morgan.

Gilchrist was a retired accountant from Orange County who, frustrated that millions of foreigners were living in the United States without permission, co-founded the Minuteman Project. It sent volunteers to watch the Mexican border in April.

Addressing the Issue

Gilchrist campaign spokesman Simcox, a co-founder of the Minuteman Project, said they have rejected the idea of forming a Minuteman party, but will encourage the formation of Minuteman chapters in every congressional district to back candidates who will advocate stricter enforcement of immigration laws.

The group already had identified candidates to run in Republican primaries for Congress in Rancho Cucamonga and the assembly in Apple Valley.

Simcox's message to Republican incumbents: "You will address this issue in 2006 or you will be removed from office."

Conservative Republican Chuck Muth, who helped Gilchrist's campaign in August, said Gilchrist was a terrific activist, but fell down on the nitty-gritty campaign tasks like fundraising and learning about other district issues.

"He wouldn't do his homework," Muth said.

Still, Gilchrist has altered the national dialogue over illegal immigration and border security, Muth said.

"Republicans are absolutely positively changing their message, but I don't think it's because of the Gilchrist campaign as much as his efforts in the Minuteman Project. That had a greater effect than this campaign."

Reach Sharon McNary at (951) 368-9458 or smcnary@pe.com

Reach Claire Vitucci at (202) 661-8422 or cvitucci@pe.com