Published: July 9, 2010
Updated: July 10, 2010 12:12 a.m.

Candidates not eager to run on immigration

By DENA BUNIS COLUMNIST THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
dbunis@ocregister.com

Whoever said public opinion polls make sense hasn't seen the recent surveys on immigration.

On the one hand they show that the majority supports Arizona's new law to require state and local cops to check people's legal status during stops for other potential crimes. And a new Gallup survey shows the public doesn't think the government should be suing the state of Arizona.

On the other hand, polls also find that the public solidly backs a comprehensive reform of the nation's immigration system, one that includes stiffer border controls, a crackdown on employers who hire illegal immigrants and legalization plan for the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants.

Those two findings seem inconsistent. How could someone agree that police should have the power to ask people for proof they are legal but also support a law to allow those here illegally to stay?

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who has polled extensively on this issue, has an explanation for this seeming contradiction.

Lake's theory is that in both cases the findings point to an electorate that is fed up with Washington's failures – whether it's in enforcing current immigration law or passing one to reform the system. That's certainly in keeping with the current public mood.

Candidates often insist that they don't decide what positions they take based on polls. Few believe that. Lake, who polled on this issue with Public Opinion Strategies, a GOP firm, advises candidates to pay attention to the public's opinion on immigration and to not duck the issue.

For some lawmakers, particularly those who won't have a competitive race this fall, there is no problem.

Orange County's Republican House members heavily favored to win their races this fall - Reps. Ed Royce, Dana Rohrabacher, Gary Miller, Ken Calvert and John Campbell - have been outspoken in their support of the Arizona law and their opposition to any immigration reform that would give benefits to illegal immigrants.

But politicians running in competitive races may not be so anxious to focus on immigration in the campaign.

Take the 47th District where both candidates have immigrant roots and are running in a district where about half of the constituency was born outside the United States.

Incumbent Santa Ana Democrat Rep. Loretta Sanchez supports comprehensive reform and opposes the Arizona law. She was traveling this week and couldn't be reached for her views on the Justice Department lawsuit.

Sanchez, the daughter of Mexican immigrants, said when the Arizona law passed that under such a statute she would be worried walking down the streets of Phoenix lest she be asked to prove her legal status.

Sanchez has chaired the Homeland Security Committee's panel on border security and worked on port security and improving conditions at detention centers. But she has never been a major public player on immigration reform. She doesn't go out of her way to talk about it and doesn't often accompany other Latino House members to press conferences on the issue.

Sanchez's opponent, Van Tran, came here from Vietnam when he was 10.
The Westminster Republican opposes unconditional amnesty for illegal immigrants. But he also uses words such as practical and compassionate to describe how he would treat the undocumented in a reform bill.

Tran's main view is that all the stakeholders in the issue need to stop talking past each other and sit down together to try to work out a solution.
In an interview he said he didn't want to answer the hypothetical of how he would have voted if he'd been in the Arizona legislature. But he said he can understand the frustration and anger of Arizonans with the lack of leadership the federal government has shown on this issue.

Tran, who is a lawyer, believes the Arizona law is constitutional and he opposes the Justice Department's suit. He views the court action as the Obama administration pandering to its base and said the court action further polarizes an already difficult issue.

Tran did say he is concerned about the way the Arizona law would be enforced if the courts allow it to take effect on July 29. He worries about how well trained law enforcement would be and that without proper preparation there could be profiling.

So although there are differences between these two congressional candidates on this issue, it's a good bet that neither will go out of their way to make this issue a campaign centerpiece. Look for jobs and the economy to continue to top the list.

In the two key statewide races, immigration could figure as all the candidates court the all-important Latino vote.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman already has broken from the majority GOP position and said she opposes the Arizona law and is advertising that view in the Latino media. Yet Whitman's campaign chairman is former Gov. Pete Wilson whose support of Prop 187 in 1994 helped him win re-election but cost Republicans Latino support for years afterward.

Democrat Jerry Brown held a news conference with Latino leaders in Los Angeles at week's end to highlight his support from that community. He too opposes the Arizona law.

In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer supports comprehensive reform that includes legalization, although she has not been a fan of any new temporary worker program. She called Arizona's law "hurtful.''

Republican Carly Fiorina supports Arizona's law and believes it's constitutional. She has consistently said she believes any immigration fix has to start with border enforcement and a temporary worker program. She won't speculate about what to do with the illegal immigrants living here now.

It would be surprising if Boxer and Fiorina key in on immigration as a major issue in their campaigns. Both have so far focused on economic issues. And Boxer is likely to highlight their differences on such social issues as abortion and gay rights.
We'll be watching.

Bunis is the Register's Washington bureau chief.

Contact the writer: (202) 628-6381 or dbunis@ocregister.com

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