Caustic issue vanished in the shadows
By RICK CASEY
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle
Nov. 8, 2008, 8:22PM
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When Princeton economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman appeared at a Houston Forum luncheon a year ago, he was asked what role he thought concerns over illegal immigration would play in this year's election.

His answer: None.

No wonder he won the Nobel Prize.

Given how loud the noise was on that issue, I was skeptical of Krugman's answer, which he had delivered in a rather cavalier manner. But he turned out to be absolutely right.

The issue of immigration policy disappeared from the presidential race long before the impending implosion of the international banking system suddenly pushed every other issue into oblivion.

Immigration policy vanished even before such core issues as Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers and gun-and-religion clinging.

It was a rather amazing act of political prestidigitation.

Fear of the issue's apparent radioactivity had caused Congress, especially but not exclusively the Republicans, to reject proposals for comprehensive reform
pushed by such radicals as President Bush and Sen. John McCain.

It appeared that nothing other than a roundup and banishment of 12 million unwanted guest workers and a long fence would serve.


Radio hyperactivity
Yet that radioactivity appears to have been more radio hyperactivity — the echo chamber airwave talk shows.

The Republican voters ended up nominating for president none other than McCain, albeit after he nodded to the party's "base" by publicly putting his enthusiasm for reform on hold until after we secure the borders.

Once he gained the nomination, McCain rarely brought up the topic. Even so, he paid the price for many of the base assertions made by the base.

Various analyses suggest that substantial inroads among Latino voters made by Bush had been more than erased by that group's reaction to the rhetoric used to assault their cousins. The Latino reaction to what they heard as Republican nativism, including heavier turnout in some key states, may have cost McCain New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and even in Florida's close race.

According to the Pew Research Center's analysis of exit polling, Barack Obama carried 57 percent of Florida's Latino voters. By contrast, Bush carried 56 percent in 2004.

Illegal immigration did not turn out to be a winning issue among non-Hispanics, either.

Does this mean Congress will pass something approaching comprehensive immigration reform, laws that realistically can be enforced without causing either the economic or human trauma that would result from hunting down and deporting millions of families?

Beto Cardenas has high hopes but cautious expectations.

Cardenas, former staff counsel for Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, is now a "public policy lawyer" for Vinson & Elkins. He has been tapped by a coalition of Houston businesses called Americans for Immigration Reform to lobby on the issue.

Businesses had started organizing on the issue before recent high-profile raids, but they have stepped up their efforts.

Cardenas believes Obama favors healthy reform.

"He, more so than McCain, was out there on this issue," Cardenas said. "He said he believes in comprehensive reform. We need to secure our borders and bring people out of the shadows."

Cardenas also believes McCain will return to his maverick ways and push for the kind of reform he favored before seeking the Republican nomination.

"I think there's a will to address the issue if it can be shown it enhances the economic health of the country," he said.

To that end, and to seek the sorts of compromises necessary to pass anything in a more Democratic Congress, Cardenas said his group has been meeting with labor union leaders.

Meanwhile, he said, a Democratic increase of at least three seats in the Texas House of Representatives means that some of the sterner measures being proposed by a few Republicans, including Sen. Dan Patrick, are not likely to pass.

They are not favored by Gov. Rick Perry and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, both of whom receive significant campaign support from businesses that rely on immigrant labor. Nor are they supported by rural Republicans, whose farm economy depends on migrant labor.

When we have laws that make it easier to get that labor legally, it will be easier to enforce the laws. Such reform could also protect the rights of the workers, who too frequently are subject to exploitation because they are afraid to report abuses.

Peering into his crystal ball, Cardenas doesn't see such comprehensive laws soon. He expects Congress to start with a half-measure: a guest worker program that doesn't lead to citizenship, with a numerical cap too low to meet the nation's labor needs.

But that, he hopes, would provide a platform that could be built upon.

You can write to Rick Casey at P.O. Box 4260, Houston, TX 77210, or e-mail him at rick.casey@chron.com


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