The Elusive Immigration Vote
January 23, 2008
Author: Toni Johnson

A voter marks his Democrat presidential preference card at the Nevada caucuses on January 19. (AP Images/ Ronda Churchill)
Immigration has been one of the hottest topics in U.S. politics in recent years. But while it remains an important issue (Miami Herald) in the 2008 presidential race, there are already indications it may not be a defining one. A recent opinion survey showed voters evenly split over which party they think is better on the issue. To date, the young election season has provided few conclusive answers about which candidates voters think would best handle immigration reform, including dealing with the estimated twelve million illegal immigrants living in the United States. February 5 may provide a clearer sense of immigration’s role as a swing issue when more than twenty states—including border states California, Arizona, and New Mexico—hold party nominating elections.

Republican Mitt Romney, who won the GOP Nevada caucus by a wide margin, favors a get-tough policy that includes increased deportation of illegal immigrants. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who backs a path-to-citizenship approach combined with tougher border surveillance, finished third in Nevada behind Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), another illegal immigration hard-liner. GOP voters in Nevada placed immigration just behind the economy in importance, a CNN poll found. In South Carolina, however, McCain performed strongly among voters who said they prefer the deportation route (CNN) and attracted large portions of voters who support a more moderate approach, edging out Republican Mike Huckabee for the win.

Romney also scored well in Michigan’s primary among voters concerned about immigration (AP), according to exit polls. But McCain’s wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina demonstrate “his immigration record is not the insurmountable obstacle it appeared to be,â€