http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impr ... ?var=26695

Could riots such as in Paris occur elsewhere?

November 21, 2005

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It is hard to predict if the recent riots and disturbances across France and other European nations will have an effect in Mexico. But one thing is clear, these events couldn't have happened at a worse time for the millions of undocumented Mexicans who live and work in the United States.
There seems to be little debate about the factors that lead to the rioting by young men from migrant communities in the suburbs of Paris: high unemployment (the overall rate for France is 10 percent, in the hardest-hit communities it had reached more then 40 percent), racism and lack of opportunities.

But in the upcoming months and years, many questions will be asked as to whether the French government could have prevented these disturbances from happening, since the signs of discontent and desperation seemed, in retrospect, quite obvious. The French authorities will also face intense scrutiny and questioning as to their reaction to the riots. Important lessons may be learned from the conclusions of these inquires.

There are striking similarities between the poor barrios in Mexico and those of the migrant communities in Europe. The cultural and language discrimination is not a fundamental issue (with the exception of some of the indigenous communities) but the major problems facing young and poor Mexicans are the same: high unemployment rates and the lack of opportunities. As in Europe, Mexico's poor barrios also face horrendously high crime rates.

But the difference is the Mexican criminal justice system simply doesn't function. International surveys indicate Mexico has one of the highest kidnapping rates in the world (second after the bereaved Colombia) and ranks third in the use of extreme violence during robberies. One further worrisome factor is that drug addiction in Mexico has skyrocketed. Recent studies show that cocaine consumption alone may have gone up 500 percent in the last five years.

It is debatable if the violence and rioting in France will be felt locally. But no one can deny there are numerous factors that indicate the potential for disturbances in Mexico are great.

THE “ESCAPE VALVE�

One important factor, however, has greatly helped reduce the risk of riots and violence in Mexico. There is an “escape valve� that the poor and discriminated in Europe do not have: the possibility of crossing illegally into the United States and getting a job. Authorities have calculated this “escape valve� has permitted more then 400,000 Mexicans to cross into the United States each year. Perhaps it is this factor alone that has stopped major uprisings in Mexico during the last couple of decades.

This mayhem could have a tremendous impact on the current discussions on immigration policy in the U.S. Congress, as U.S. officials and opinion makers watch the developments in Europe. During the congressional hearings on the different immigration legislative proposals, the Paris riots will probably be discussed and will definitely be in the mind of the legislators.

Could the Mexican-American barrios in the U.S. be facing a similar future? Could the next major disturbances occur in the United States?. Many of the factors that lead up to the rioting in Europe are present in the growing Mexican communities in the U.S., such as poverty, racism, unemployment, cultural and language discrimination, and a growing frustration that their needs are not being addressed. Unfortunately, the only way society listens to these young desperate youth is when they resort to violence and destruction.

ANGRY YOUNG MEN

It is important to point out that those involved in the rioting in Paris were mainly young men who are first and second generation French nationals, sons of African migrants. In Mexican migrant communities in the United States, a predominance of young, first and second generation migrants, mostly men, is also visible. In this scenario, the likely protesters would be U.S. citizens, sons and daughters of the recent migration wave.

The possibility of the approval of a bill that would allow for the legalization of at least some of the undocumented workers in the U.S. (such as the Kennedy-McCain proposal) seems farther away than ever.

As Paris burns, U.S. legislators will probably push for a bill that systematically seeks to close the “escape valve� by closing the U.S.-Mexico border. Ironically, they would be shutting down the very thing that could be preventing the riots that they fear.