Thread: Crossings By Migrants Slow as Job Picture Dims

The Wall Street Journal
Crossings By Migrants Slow as Job Picture Dims
By MIRIAM JORDAN
April 9, 2008; Page A1

The number of illegal immigrants apprehended along the U.S.-Mexico border is falling steeply, an indication that the economic downturn and beefed-up security could be deterring unauthorized crossings.

The U.S. Border Patrol said Tuesday that the number of apprehensions dropped 17% to 347,372 between Oct. 1, 2007, and March 31, 2008, from the same period in late 2006 and early 2007.


The drop was particularly stark in the Yuma sector in Arizona, with apprehensions plunging 76% to 5,909 people over that 150-mile stretch of the border. Tucson, the state's other sector with 262 miles of border, saw apprehensions drop 12% to 157,299. That state passed a law effective Jan. 1 that cracks down on employers who hire undocumented workers.

There is no way to measure the number of people who try to sneak into the U.S. from Mexico each year. Nor is there a precise way to gauge how many succeed or fail. Still, federal officials and many immigration watchers consider arrests at the border a key indicator of how many people are trying.

The Border Patrol and some experts say tougher measures and a greater number of agents on the ground are discouraging border crossings from Mexico. Experts also cite tougher state laws, particularly in Arizona. Economists and others point to another key influence: the state of the U.S. economy, in particular the ailing housing industry.

Francisco Lopez, a 43-year-old illegal immigrant and the parent of two U.S.-born children, earned about $50,000 a year transporting construction material, but the work dried up and he now drives a taxi to make ends meet. "To live in America these days is to suffer," said Mr. Lopez, who lives in the Chicago area. "I'm not recommending to my friends back home that they come here. I'm thinking of leaving myself."

To the extent that the drop in apprehensions could be attributed to tougher border efforts, it could help Republicans who are campaigning this election year on an immigration crackdown. It could also embolden proponents of tougher laws, such as the one passed in Arizona, that impact both illegal immigrants and the businesses that employ them.

At the same time, ebbing numbers of new illegal immigrants could help defuse a tough election-year issue. Arizona Sen. John McCain, who has sewn up the Republican presidential nomination, has recovered from accusations that he isn't tough enough on illegal immigration, but he still faces doubts from within the party's base.

Arrests at the U.S.-Mexico border have been falling for more than two years. However, the dramatic drop in the first half of the fiscal year means that the number of apprehensions for the whole year ending Sept. 30 could dwindle to less than the 858,638 in fiscal 2007. That would be roughly half the nearly 1.64 million arrests during fiscal 2000, the peak year. Immigration experts also believe state laws to crack down on employers of illegal immigrants are discouraging attempts.

In Arizona, an employer-sanctions law has made finding work more difficult as companies start using an electronic system to verify worker documents. The state, currently the main gateway into the U.S. for illegal immigrants, has also stepped up enforcement beyond the border.

"Migrants are leaving Arizona because of employer sanctions," says Robin Hoover, director of Humane Borders, a Tucson-based group whose volunteers deliver water to crossers in the desert.

About 60% of all unauthorized workers in the U.S. are originally from Mexico, according to the Pew Hispanic Center. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 14.4% of all Mexicans in the U.S. work in the construction industry. Census data don't fully reflect undocumented residents. Jeffrey Humphreys, director of economic forecasting at the University of Georgia, believes the latter figure would be substantially higher if illegal immigrants were fully taken into account.

"Enforcement at the border is a factor, but the primary motivation is economic opportunity," said Mr. Humphreys. "Those opportunities were disproportionately in home building, which has tanked."

Blue-collar workers who typically make $5 a day in Mexico or Guatemala can make at least that much per hour in the U.S., and usually more. "The U.S-Mexico labor market is one of the most efficient examples of the law of supply and demand," said Joshua Hoyt, executive director of the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights. "If the demand goes down in the U.S, the supply of people coming from Mexico goes down."

In another sign that the slowing economy is hurting many immigrants, regardless of their legal status, growth in money transfers home has slowed. Latin American and Caribbean immigrants sent $66.5 billion to their home countries in 2007, about 7% more than in the previous year, according to the Inter-American Development Bank. It marked the first time that growth failed to reach double digits since the bank started tracking remittances in 2000.

Dawn McLaren, a research economist at W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University who studies immigration, says that arrests of illegal crossers tend to fall a year before an economic downturn and begin to climb ahead of an economic boom. "I use the number of apprehensions at the border as a leading economic indicator," says Ms. McLaren.

According to her analysis of Border Patrol data, border apprehensions on a seasonally adjusted basis peaked in early 2000 and then began declining drastically. By March 2001, the nation was in a recession. In October 2001, border apprehensions, on a seasonally adjusted basis, reached a trough and then began an upward trend until September 2005, save for a sharp decline and rise in 2003 at the start of the war in Iraq.

Tougher economic conditions come as U.S. officials have stepped up enforcement at the border. In recent years, the government has dramatically increased the number of agents on the ground and boosted security by erecting vehicle barriers, three-layer fences and cameras at the border. It has also launched an initiative to prosecute and ensure jail time to unauthorized border crossers who previously were returned to Mexico only to try to re-enter within hours.

"We are controlling our border," said Ramon Rivera, assistant chief for the border patrol in Washington.

For many potential immigrants, that further complicates the economics of coming to the U.S. In the early 1990s, only a minority of illegal crossers hired a smuggler known as a coyote to get them into the U.S. However, as the government began clamping down on California and Texas, the immigrants have relied increasingly on coyotes to guide them through circuitous, riskier routes, often across the Arizona desert, immigration officials say.

The coyotes typically charge $2,500 or more a person, up from about $350 in the early 1990s in California or Texas, according to T.J. Bonner, president of the National Border Patrol Council, a union that represents 13,000 agents. "The cost of being smuggled has increased dramatically," he said. "People are thinking more carefully before crossing the border."

In a sign of the slackening labor market, day-laborer corners in major cities across the country are crowded with frustrated job seekers.

José Luiz Centes, a day laborer in Los Angeles, says that he can barely scrape together $400 to send to his family in El Salvador each month. A year ago, he says, he was sending $300 to $400 each week.

In the middle of packing boxes for a business owner on Tuesday, he said, "Life is very difficult. No one is hiring." At the day-laborer corner where he waits for work each day, there are sometimes 100 people vying for jobs. Most go home without a dime, he said.

Oscar Diaz, a Mexican who seeks work at a day-laborer gathering site in Orange County, Calif., said he is earning less than half what he made two years ago. "Employers are taking us for just a few hours," said Mr. Diaz, who does painting, gardening and handyman work.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1207704 ... lenews_wsj

If true, this is a good trend. Now lets get E-verify in place so any new workers will have to have valid work permits to get a job, when the economy recovers.
I often wonder about the lower arrest numbers. Are they getting through another way? I certainly have not seen a reduction in school enrollment or healthcare services in Texas as a result.