Thread: Cut in illegal crossings tied to slow economy, not troops

Cut in illegal crossings tied to slow economy, not troops, experts say

By Daniel González
The Arizona Republic (Phoenix), May 9, 2007

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepubli ... n0509.html

It seems like a simple cause and effect. Six thousand National Guard soldiers descend on the U.S.-Mexican border and apprehensions of undocumented immigrants drop by 27 percent in a year.

But economists say look further.

The main factor driving down illegal immigration is a slowing economy, especially in the construction industry, which employs many undocumented workers, economists say. Security plays a lesser role.

Dawn McLaren, a research economist at Arizona State University, has tracked the correlation precisely. She has studied the relationship between the economy and Border Patrol apprehensions for years.

When the U.S. economy is strong, she found, apprehensions tend to go up. When the economy takes a nosedive, so do Border Patrol apprehensions. Other economists agree.

That raises questions about President Bush's enforcement strategy at the border. He wants to add 6,000 more agents by the end of 2008, with Guard troops filling the gap until new agents arrive.

'If I were President Bush, I would be much more cautious about touting the success of the increase in enforcement because there are other factors that could account for the decrease, including the softening of the U.S. economy, especially in the housing sector,' said Gordon Hanson, director of the Center on Pacific Economies at the University of California-San Diego.

During a visit to Yuma in April, Bush pointed to a drop in apprehensions as a sign the government was making progress to stem illegal immigration along the porous Southwestern border, especially in Arizona, a main gateway.Bush did not mention the economy as a factor.

'When you're apprehending fewer people, it means fewer people are trying to come across,' Bush said. 'And fewer are trying to come across because we're deterring people from attempting illegal border crossings in the first place.'

April marked the 12th month in a row Border Patrol apprehensions fell. Since May 2006, when Bush announced he would station National Guard troops along the border, apprehensions have fallen 27 percent borderwide compared with the previous 12 months, according to Border Patrol data. In the Tucson Sector, the nation's busiest, apprehensions are down 24 percent. In the Yuma Sector, apprehensions are down 27 percent.

The decline over the past year marks the most precipitous drop since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, said Pia Orrenius, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She studies the economic effects of migration.

An economic recession leading up to the attacks, followed by the Border Patrol going on high alert, sent apprehensions to their lowest point in a decade. Orrenius believes something similar is happening again. The most recent drop in apprehensions indicates that beefed-up border security is 'certainly' having a deterrent effect. 'But not as large as the economic effect,' she said.

During the first quarter of 2006, the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 5.6 percent. During the first quarter of this year, growth slowed to 1.3 percent. The slowdown is being driven, in part, by job losses in the construction industry. In March, employment growth in construction fell to 1 percent from 7.4 percent in March 2006.

The construction industry employs many foreign-born workers, both legal and illegal. Of the 11.8 million workers employed in construction in 2006, about 2.2 million,or 20 percent, were foreign-born Hispanics, according to the Pew Hispanic Center, a research organization in Washington, D.C.

Rakesh Kochhar, associate director of research at the Pew center, said the housing slowdown initially did not have a negative impact on foreign-born Hispanic workers. In fact, the industry added 335,000 foreign-born Hispanics in 2006, up from 262,000 in 2005, he said. It's possible, however, that the continued slowdown in housing is drawing fewer workers across the border, he said.

McLaren, of ASU's W.P. Carey School of Business,said illegal immigrants rely heavily on networks to determine whether to cross or not. When the economy is good, word spreads south that jobs are available and employers are hiring, and vice versa.

When the economy is slow, increased enforcement exacerbates its effects, as crossing becomes tougher and more costly, she said. 'It's now expensive to get across, so they are going to want to have a job before they come,' McLaren said.

Fails to mention that stepped up interior enforcement such as the workplace raids and deportations by ICE recently may have had some chilling effect on those attempting to cross for work.

The increased manpower on the border is still necessary though to interdict drug trafficking and tp deter criminals and terrorists - they couldn't care less about the economy.

The main factor driving down illegal immigration is a slowing economy, especially in the construction industry, which employs many undocumented workers, economists say. Security plays a lesser role.

This serves to illustrate that if people who hire illegals were punished the job base would shrink and the illegals would self-deport.

And the White House thinks the decline in apprehensions is a sign that the tighter security is working.

Its called attrition! they really should take a serious look at it!

'If I were President Bush, I would be much more cautious about touting the success of the increase in enforcement because there are other factors that could account for the decrease, including the softening of the U.S. economy, especially in the housing sector,' said Gordon Hanson, director of the Center on Pacific Economies at the University of California-San Diego.

Personaly, I don't give a rats patoo if this economy comes to a grinding halt, if that is what it takes to get all of these illegal people out of here. When will these idiots realize you can't put money before the rule of law?

Rockfish,
NEVER!! STUPID STUPID STUPID!