Thread: A Daunting Immigration Equation

A Daunting Immigration Equation

Politics could doom systemic reform
By Angie C. Marek
Posted 4/15/07
When he appeared in Yuma, Ariz., last week to deliver an endorsement of "comprehensive immigration reform"-shorthand for a border-security bill with a guest-worker program-President George W. Bush said he thought "the atmosphere up there [in Washington] is good right now" for such a bill. The sunny statement matched the Arizona morning, but it may not reflect the current reality. Most advocates of such policies say they're facing major obstacles in Congress: In the Senate, weeks of closed-door negotiations have failed to yield a proposal acceptable to Democrats. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, meanwhile, says she won't even consider bringing a bill to the floor until at least 70 Republicans support it, or enough to inoculate Democrats against attacks from the right.

As the 2008 elections draw closer, the politics of immigration are shifting. A bill must be bipartisan to pass the Senate. But presidential ambitions seem to be moving two of the White House's longtime allies on this issue-Sens. John McCain and Sam Brownback-to the right, where they can court the Republican base, which includes a vocal segment opposing amnesty. Moderate Democrats, meanwhile, are skittish: Many campaigned in 2006 on a get-tough border platform.

There's a recognition, says Tamar Jacoby of the Manhattan Institute, that "the narrow window to get this done before the 2008 election campaign is rapidly closing." White House officials have been scrambling behind the scenes to negotiate a bill palatable to Senate Republicans. A draft proposal leaked from those meetings, however, was troubling to many Democrats. Sen. Ted Kennedy was upset by provisions that would keep guest workers from bringing families or transitioning to citizenship without heading home first. Also daunting was the proposed $10,000 fine that the 12 million illegal aliens already here would pay for a green card. "You set the markers high," says Angela Kelley with the National Immigration Forum, "and then you negotiate." Sounds good. But on an issue this emotional, compromise may be a tall order.

This story appears in the April 23, 2007 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/artic ... anic.b.htm

at this point holding off amnesty, while ICE is starting to do it's job, is a minor victory for all American tax payers! our politicians better be scared of us.