http://www.azstarnet.com/dailystar/metro/148839

Deaths drop in border sector
Decline is first in six years; reasons vary
By Brady McCombs
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 09.29.2006
For the first time in six years, the number of known border deaths has decreased in the Tucson Sector.

The possible reasons vary. An increase in agents, arrival of National Guard troops, and TV ads in Mexico warning of the dangers played a role, said Jesus Rodriguez, Border Patrol spokesman for the Tucson Sector.
A rainy summer that kept some migrants from crossing and made the journey safer for others likely explains it, said the Rev. Robin Hoover, president of Humane Borders; and Glenn Spencer, president of American Border Patrol, which is not a governmental agency.

Regardless of the causes, the numbers don't lie.

Through Sept. 21, the agency had recorded 161 deaths — 20 percent fewer than fiscal 2005 at the same time. Final numbers from fiscal year 2006, which ends Saturday, will not be released until sometime next week, Rodriguez said. The agency recorded 216 border deaths in the Tucson Sector for all of fiscal year 2005.

The sector had the most deaths, more than double the number of any other Border Patrol sector on the southern border for the fifth consecutive year. But the decrease is the first since deaths spiked up in 2000.

"I'm really delighted that there are fewer deaths on the border," said Spencer, whose organization uses airplanes and other technology to spot illegal entrants and report them to the Border Patrol. "There shouldn't be any."

The number of Border Patrol agents in the Tucson Sector increased by about 300 from last year, Rodriguez said. About 1,100 National Guard troops have been supporting the Border Patrol in administrative duties and by spotting illegal crossings since June. But the public-service announcements that air in Mexico might have been just as important, Rodriguez said.

"The word is spreading down south that it's dangerous out there," Rodriguez said. "When you see that on TV coming from somebody from your home country telling you that, it has an effect on you."

The warnings have taught illegal entrants the safe months to come, Hoover said. More illegal entrants crossed this year during the cooler months and fewer during the hot months, he said.

"I don't think any fewer people are coming up here, but I think people are coming up here smarter," Hoover said.

Don't expect another decrease next year if the amount of rain returns to normal, said Humane Borders' Hoover, whose Tucson-based organization places water tanks throughout the desert.

"I think the weather was the single most important factor in the 2006 death count," Hoover said.

More than 5 inches of rain fell in the Altar Valley in July, compared with less than 2 inches in July 2005, a report from the National Weather Service showed. August, though, was drier in 2006 with less than 1 inch of rain compared with more than 9 inches in 2005.

Apprehensions dropped by 10 percent in the Tucson Sector, the second consecutive year they decreased. Arrests increased in the El Centro and San Diego sectors in California but dropped slightly in the Yuma Sector. Drug seizures increased by more than 40 percent in the Tucson Sector.

Spencer and Hoover both said illegal traffic is as busy as ever in the Tucson Sector. After a decrease in June after the National Guard arrived, illegal entrants have been crossing in the same large numbers, said Spencer, who takes his airplane up along the border two to three times a week.

"Our indications are that the traffic is as heavy as ever," Spencer said.
More than 944 people are known to have died trying to cross illegally in the Tucson Sector since 2000, Border Patrol figures show. Those deaths account for 36 percent of all deaths recorded on the southern border.

● Contact Brady McCombs at 573-4213 or bmccombs@azstarnet.com.