Thread: Democrats See Opportunity in Arizona

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/04/wa...=1&oref=slogin

Democrats See Opportunity in Arizona

By RANDAL C. ARCHIBOLD
Published: June 4, 2006

PHOENIX, June 2 — As they survey a political landscape that looks increasingly favorable to them, Democrats are suddenly focusing on Arizona, once-hostile territory that could prove crucial to their hopes of recapturing the Senate this year.

What once seemed a long shot to Democrats — unseating Senator Jon Kyl, the two-term incumbent Republican — has in recent weeks shifted to the realm of the possible.

His Democratic challenger, Jim Pederson, a wealthy shopping mall developer, seems to be benefiting from the national decline in support for Republicans and President Bush. Mr. Pederson is using the dominant issue here, illegal immigration, to try to make inroads among centrist and independent voters.

"Kyl is carrying that albatross of closeness to the president and the president's untimely demise in the public esteem," said Earl de Berge, research director of the independent Rocky Mountain Poll here, citing public concerns about the Iraq war, high gasoline prices and other factors.

Recent polls here have showed Mr. Kyl, 64, with a lead of some 10 percentage points, compared with 20 or more in surveys earlier this year. The National Journal, the political weekly based in Washington, recently elevated the race to among the top 10 most-competitive Senate races.

National Democrats are beginning to smell blood and are talking of yet another race among a handful that could push them closer to the six seats they need to retake the Senate.

"We're feeling very good about Arizona," said Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, who heads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. He said he could not imagine saying such a thing a year ago.

Democrats are also in competitive races for three or so Congressional seats here, including a crowded field from both parties vying for the seat of Representative Jim Kolbe, a Republican representing a border area who is retiring.

But it is the Kyl race that has raised eyebrows, especially because Mr. Pederson is not well known outside of political circles — he once headed the state Democratic Party — and has never run for office.

Beyond its possible role in determining whether Republicans can retain control of the Senate, the race between Mr. Kyl and Mr. Pederson is also highlighting the complex politics of immigration.

Here in this border state, where the Minutemen civilian patrol group is busy building a fence on the border, where more people cross illegally than anywhere else in the country, it is not surprising that the issue is Topic A in the campaign.

Mr. Kyl takes a harder line, emphasizing border enforcement and scoffing at the proposal, included in legislation passed last month by the Senate and supported in a general sense by the president, to ease the way toward citizenship for illegal immigrants already here. His stance puts him in line with most grass-roots conservatives, who object to legislation that they believe grants amnesty to illegal immigrants.

Mr. Pederson is taking the position held by Arizona's other Republican senator, John McCain, who breaks with conservative orthodoxy on some issues and who supports providing most illegal immigrants with an eventual chance to become citizens.

Mr. Pederson, 63, drops Mr. McCain's name frequently, and in a television commercial promises he would be "an independent senator who gets results and puts the people of Arizona ahead of party politics."

To the chagrin of Mr. McCain, Mr. Pederson has used a quotation of his calling Mr. Kyl's suggestion that immigrants return to their countries before applying for any temporary worker program "bordering on fantasy."

Both sides are building up their bank accounts for what may become a very hard fought and expensive race. Former President Bill Clinton, who lost this state in 1992 but won it in 1996, spoke Thursday at a Pederson fund-raiser that netted $500,000.

Later this month, Laura Bush, the first lady, plans to help raise money for Mr. Kyl, after fund-raising appearances by other party luminaries like Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California; Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York; and Vice President Dick Cheney.

Mr. Kyl has raised more than $9 million compared with Mr. Pederson's $4 million. The state Republican Party has accused Mr. Pederson of seeking to "buy" a seat after he has put more than $3 million of his own money into his campaign. The Kyl campaign has suggested that it demonstrates tepid support of Mr. Pederson among donors.

Although it has had the reputation as being a hotbed of conservatism, Arizona is difficult to characterize, and its politics are in flux.

Republicans still predominate in voter registration, but the margin is shrinking and the state has long moved past the era of the legendary conservative Barry Goldwater, one of Mr. Kyl's political heroes. About 40 percent are Republicans, 34 percent Democrats and 26 percent independents or other parties.

Mr. Pederson may already be riding the coattails of Gov. Janet Napolitano, a popular Democrat who is seeking a second term this year. He helped get her elected by managing the state Democratic Party at her behest in her 2002 race.

Mr. Kyl largely operates in the shadow of Mr. McCain — newspapers have dubbed him "the other guy" — who serves as his campaign chairman.

They parted ways on the Senate immigration bill, with Mr. Kyl voting against it, and both will serve on a conference committee that will try to negotiate a compromise with the House.

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Mr. Kyl concedes that he does not depend on charisma. He said he preferred to work behind the scenes on legislation. In that sense, he said, he is a contrast to Mr. McCain, who gets more attention because he "is a war hero who ran for president, a great personality and has worked very hard at establishing familiarity with the people in the national media."

Like Mr. Pederson, who noticeably read from his speech as he introduced Mr. Clinton, Mr. Kyl's public presence can be decidedly low wattage and sometimes awkward. At a luncheon Wednesday before a tax policy group, he fumbled for nearly a minute midspeech, with the sound of clinking forks filling the space, as he tracked down a statistic in his papers to make a point about the benefits of tax cuts to Arizonans.

But Mr. Kyl said his lack of flash was compensated with achievements like helping to broker a settlement of water-rights claims by a Native American tribe.

"Not many people can appreciate the significance of the largest water settlement in the history of the country," Mr. Kyl said, but "for the future of our state ensuring a stable water supply is just critical."

Mr. Kyl said he had stood his ground on immigration because of the 139,000 illegal immigrants with criminal records that the Department of Homeland Security said were caught at the border last year. He suggested the figure might actually be higher, based on Border Patrol estimates that three people make it into the country for every one that is caught.

"That probably means there were close to half a million people entering this country with criminal backgrounds," he said, though the government has made no such estimate. "That's a serious problem."

His campaign suggests that Mr. Pederson's gain is not unexpected given all the advertising the Democrat has broadcast, four television commercials to Mr. Kyl's one. The Republicans' supporters said they were not worried about losing.

"The race had to tighten," Mr. Kyl said. "I had a huge lead, which was unnatural."

Mr. Pederson comes from the breed of executive-turned-politician and counts as a friend and counselor Jon S. Corzine, the New Jersey governor and former United States senator who was a Goldman Sachs executive before turning to politics.

He likened his campaign to building a shopping center, assembling architects (strategists), marketing professionals (media consultants) and builders (campaign volunteers) into one package.

"I have built 25 shopping malls," he said, "and not one of them was unsuccessful."

Originally Posted by 2ndamendsis

Mr. Pederson comes from the breed of executive-turned-politician and counts as a friend and counselor Jon S. Corzine, the New Jersey governor and former United States senator who was a Goldman Sachs executive before turning to politics.

He likened his campaign to building a shopping center, assembling architects (strategists), marketing professionals (media consultants) and builders (campaign volunteers) into one package.

"I have built 25 shopping malls," he said, "and not one of them was unsuccessful."

Mr. Pederson is probably responsible for at least a quarter million illegal immigrants entering our country to help build his 25 shopping malls. I would like to see the payroll records of every contractor and sub-contractor involved in his projects. I wonder how many millions of dollars were passed around under the table to illegal labor.
While this guy gets very rich, insulating himself as a developer, the American taxpayer has subsidized a large portion of the labor involved in the construction of his 25 shopping malls.
This is exactly the type of person that needs to be eliminated from our political system. We definately do not need more of his type in Washington.

YUP, and I'd love to know if he's got and backdoor connections to MCCAIN....my bet is YES.