Thread: Illegal Immigration Key to Bilbray Victory

http://nctimes.com/articles/2006/06/...5_046_7_06.txt

Illegal immigration may explain Bilbray victory

By: WILLIAM FINN BENNETT - Staff Writer

Illegal immigration appears to have trumped ethics reform as the most compelling issue on the minds of voters in Tuesday's 50th Congressional District election to pick a temporary replacement for the seat formerly held by Randy "Duke" Cunningham.

Wednesday's vote tallies showed Republican Brian Bilbray, the candidate who made putting a stop to illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, with about 5,000 more votes than Democrat Francine Busby.

Against the backdrop of the Cunningham scandal ----- the eight-term Republican Congressman resigned from the 50th District seat late last year after pleading guilty to taking $2.4 million in bribes and is now in prison ---- Cardiff school board member Busby made ethics reform in Washington the main plank in her campaign platform.


Throughout the night Tuesday, about 5 percentage points separated the two front-runners in the four-candidate race. And that difference held as of Wednesday morning, with Bilbray having captured 49.33 percent of the votes to Busby's 45.46 percent.

On Wednesday, Busby conceded the election to former 49th District Congressman Bilbray, after a nasty battle for the seat.

"I have just spoken with Brian Bilbray to congratulate him on winning this race and becoming the next congressman from the 50th District," Busby stated in a news release.

In a phone interview Wednesday, Washington political analyst Nathan Gonzales, editor for the Washington biweekly newsletter the Rothenberg Political Report, said the illegal immigration issue apparently resonated much more strongly with voters than did ethics reform. The publication, which he said is nonpartisan, covers congressional and gubernatorial elections.

Gonzales said the 50th District's 157,000 registered Republicans versus its 105,000 registered Democrats presented a high hurdle for Busby. For her to have won would have required that a sizable number of Republicans vote against Bilbray, he said.

"I think (the) results show Republicans were not so discontented with their party that they shifted to her," Gonzales said. "Republicans successfully made this race about immigration, and that was not where Busby wanted to have the fight."

Busby could not be reached for comment Wednesday. Campaign spokesman Brennan Bilberry said Busby "is not doing interviews today; she is spending the day with her family."

Asked what he believes was the cause of Busby's loss in the runoff, Bilberry would say only that the disproportionate number of Republicans in the 50th District created a formidable obstacle. However, "we still feel very good about the campaign we ran."

He said that in the days to come, campaign officials would begin analyzing the factors playing into her loss in the runoff and ---- since she won her party's nomination in Tuesday's concurrent primary election ---- begin to develop strategies for the fall general election.

In a Wednesday interview, Bilbray said he attributes his victory to voters' desire to send a strong message to Washington.

"It means that immigration is the No. 1 issue and that amnesty is not the answer to illegal immigration," he said.

Longtime North County political consultant Jack Orr said that once Cunningham was convicted, ethics reform became a non-issue for most Republicans and many others.

"At that point, voters went, 'That's over with, now let's move on to something else,'" Orr said.

As it turned out, illegal immigration was that issue, he said.

"It was an ideal situation for Bilbray because he had a history of working on illegal immigration issues," Orr said of Bilbray's longtime advocacy and lobbying work for a Washington nonprofit that pushes for tougher immigration laws. "It was one of those lucky things that happens in politics."

Swearing-in may be held next week

With his victory secured in Tuesday's special election runoff, Bilbray and officials with the U.S. House of Representatives said Wednesday that he could be sworn into office as early as next week.

A House official said he expects confirmation of Bilbray's victory from the California secretary of state's office "within the next day or two." And Bilbray could be sworn in within the week, said Jon Brandt, a spokesman for the Committee on House Administration.

He said that once the House clerk's office receives official confirmation from Secretary of State Bruce McPherson, the information will be forwarded to House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., who will then set up the swearing-in ceremony to be held on the House floor.

A spokeswoman for the county registrar of voters office said that, typically, confirmation follows a monthlong review of the election results and that she expects that process will be completed by month's end.

However, secretary of state's office spokeswoman Jennifer Kerns said Wednesday that McPherson could confirm the election results sooner if "it does become abundantly clear that Bilbray has won."

Registrar of voters office spokeswoman Cathy Glaser said that by Friday, the office should have completed the count and confirmation of a significant portion of the estimated 15,000 to 20,000 provisional and last-minute absentee ballots being tallied. Wednesday tallies showed Bilbray with 60,319 votes to Busby's 55,587.

Bilbray's win followed a nasty campaign that saw the national arms of the Democratic and Republican parties sink millions into television ads attacking Washington lobbyist Bilbray and Cardiff school board member Busby.

Bilbray's plans

As soon as he takes office, Bilbray said, he plans to jump into the immigration battle "to make sure the House doesn't give in to pressure from the president and the Senate on amnesty."

He was referring to two recently passed bills, one by the House and the other by the Senate, that will be reviewed in conference committee in the coming days to try to reach a consensus version of the proposed legislation.

The Senate bill carries provisions to create a guest-worker program and a pathway to eventual citizenship for many of the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants living in the U.S. The House version, however, is heavy on strengthening the nation's borders and cracking down on those who employ illegal immigrants. It does not include a guest-worker program nor allow for illegal immigrants to legalize their immigration status.

With the special primary election to elect a temporary replacement to the seat apparently resolved ---- the results must still be certified by July 4 ---- the candidates' attention now turns to the fall general election to select someone to serve a full two-year term in the 50th District seat starting in January.

On Tuesday, each party held a concurrent primary election to select its candidate for the general election. While just four candidates were on the special election portion of the ballot ---- Busby, Bilbray, Independent William Griffith and Libertarian Paul King ---- the Republican primary portion of Tuesday's ballot carried the names of eight Republicans. Bilbray emerged as the clear victor for his party's nomination, by capturing 54.26 percent of the votes, about 40 percentage points more than second-place finisher Eric Roach.

Democrats, meanwhile, chose between two candidates, Busby and Chris Young, and Busby took nearly 90 percent of those votes.

Money factor

Over the past few months, individual campaign contributions from across the country have poured into Busby's campaign coffers. Two national Democratic organizations had asked their grass-roots base to donate to Busby's campaign, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the powerful nonprofit Emily's List, which promotes Democratic women candidates who support women's right to obtain abortions.

In addition, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent about $2 million in campaign advertising for Busby, mostly in attack ads against Bilbray. The National Republican Congressional Committee spent more than twice that amount ---- nearly $5 million ---- in similar ads attacking Busby.

Besides national party expenditures, Busby's campaign spent most of the $2.249 million she has received in the race, as did the Bilbray campaign with the $1 million or so it received.

Gonzales, of the Rothenberg Political Report, said he expects that Busby's loss and competing congressional races across the nation in the fall will translate to a drop in out-of-state campaign donations and so-called independent expenditures by the Republican and Democratic parties.

"Busby won't have the advantage of being the only candidate to have money funneled to her," Gonzales said.

And the same goes for Bilbray, he said.

"The DCCC and the NRCC now have to focus on a couple of dozen races, not one race," he said.

Busby spokesman Bilberry said that he is not worried about out-of-state support.

"This race was never about the DCCC or the NRCC," Bilberry said. "It was about the broad base of support that Francine has formed of people of all parties in this district ---- those people continue to exist and continue to want a change in the way Washington works."

Contact staff writer William Finn Bennett at (760) 740-5426 or wbennett@nctimes.com.

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Comments On This Story

Note: Comments reflect the views of readers and not necessarily those of the North County Times or its staff.
Skip wrote on June 07, 2006 10:53 PM:"A few more Large Illegal Alien days like May 1, should do it. Maybe American Citizens woke up when they saw the "Illegal Aleins" under flags of foreign nations, demanding their rights and benifits. Importing third world poverty, disease, and great masses of people , is just too costly for the Middle class taxpayers."

Dug wrote on June 08, 2006 12:11 AM:"Remeber the Alamo! It could happen here! but we win."

I'm afraid not: wrote on June 08, 2006 1:00 AM:"The voters in CA-50 are simply not smart enough to elect Busby."

El Guero wrote on June 08, 2006 1:21 AM:"Exactly right, Skip. The notion that candidates can create isues to distract voters from other 'real issues' is a fallacy that many mainstream political pundits and lazy reporters use as excuses to explain why people like Busby lose. Those May Day marches dramatized like nothing else could the urgency of a real problem that has existed for decades. And contrary to what the Rotherberg Political Reporter guy said, many Republican voters are very discontented with their party, which may also have contributed to Bilbray's victory, since he parts with the Republican establishment on important issues like immigration, free trade, gun control, etc. It's why I voted for him."

Ed wrote on June 08, 2006 2:22 AM:"The Brian Bilbray election victory indicates that if given the opportunity, American citizens would vote to end illegal immigration. Ending illegal immigration requires one simple government action: prohibit employers from hiring illegal aliens. Doing so would dry up the jobs that attract the illegal aliens, and those illegal aliens now here would tend to self-deport over time for lack of a job. All concerned would adjust. This self-deportation would also make amnesty a moot point."

Fool on the Hill wrote on June 08, 2006 3:59 AM:"Illegal immigration is arguably our biggest issue locally. Solving that will help solve other issues. Ethics is a human nature issue, not a political party issue. There's more than enough unethical behaviour to go all around. While I agree with Bilbay's position on illegal immigration, he will have to walk the walk on ethics. Busby was a pawn. The voters saw through it."

Put the money where you mouth is.. wrote on June 08, 2006 5:05 AM:"Now let's see if he continues to cross party lines and fight against this Amnesty, wants to still build a wall and protect out southern border, and finally he supports allowing the BP to do their job and start collecting up the illegals who are already here within our interior! Back it up and be an American who wants to defend the border from this invasion!"

Lou wrote on June 08, 2006 5:05 AM:"Mr. Bennett, I know you had to think of a headline for this story, but ethics still was part of this campaign. When Busby told all of us that she was willing to help illegals to vote to get into office, we considered ethics again. Sometimes I wonder how writers brains work. Are you still on the same planet as the rest of us?"

I agree with skip wrote on June 08, 2006 5:09 AM:"How dare these people from another nation and Vincente Fox come into our country and demand anything. Many of them yelling racial slurs toward Americans too! Challenging us! It is not longer a simple act of speech. Would we allow the terrorist to come and demand anything here in our country! Let's see if they keep it up, it will eventually start to get the American people coming out to take up against them and protect our country if own politicians are afraid to solve the proble and stop the illegal aleins from coming in! God Bless America!"

Fran wrote on June 08, 2006 5:51 AM:"I am really sad that my community voted in someone who is bigoted and "religiously" driven. He also ran a slam campaign (all the calls I received were against Busby, not one stated what Bilbray was for). We needed change. I'm sad."

MAY have been? wrote on June 08, 2006 6:20 AM:"Politicians, Democrat and Republican better take notice. ILLEGAL immigration *IS* the only thing that matters to most voters. We want our country back! We are tired of supporting the mindless reproduction of ILLEGAL aliens, the graffiti, the schools, their medical care, and the danger they represent by driving illegal cars on our roads without insurance. They don't even respect the SIMPLEST of our laws about jaywalking."

Marcus wrote on June 08, 2006 6:25 AM:"What a misleading headline. It assumes that the only way to explain a Bilbray win is because of illegal immigration rhetoric. Perhaps the reason he won is because Busby is a liar and everyone saw through her transparent campaign of hypocrisy. Or, it could be the fact that Busby is a terrible candidate who is now a...oh, how many is it...is it four time loser? "

thanks Tina wrote on June 08, 2006 6:31 AM:"If this is the case you have only the pro open borders scandalous demonstrators to blame. Amazingly their attitude is, ‘if we cannot bring all the illegal aliens here then we will bring all the Mexicans and democrats down.’ How sad this is nothing more then a self-serving crowd. "

Sick Of It wrote on June 08, 2006 6:32 AM:"This vote wasn’t about ‘Immigration vs Ethics’ – it wasn’t about any issue except if enough ‘Republican’ voters would vote against their party. ‘Republicans’ do what they are told to do; they march lock-step to the drum-beat of their fear of anything non-Republican, even the ‘Republican’ leadership (I choke on the word ‘leadership’ used in conjunction with ‘Republican’) marches to the blood drum of fear. There is no issue to ‘Republicans’ other than ‘what should we fear most’, and the thing they have the greatest fear of is change. So this election, like all the other elections, they voted to maintain the course, they voted for their party – not for or against any perceived issue – because their party stirs the embers of their fears and this fearmongering temporarily soothes their fractured, irrational, and paranoid psyche. This vote was NOT about ‘Immigration vs Ethics’, really."

Back it up! wrote on June 08, 2006 6:32 AM:"Build a wall, stop the invasion, and let the BP go into the inertior and gather up those here illagally! No Amnesty!"

La Raza wrote on June 08, 2006 8:29 AM:"Bilbray cannot stop the Reconquista. California belongs to Aztlan."

El Jefe wrote on June 08, 2006 8:30 AM:"Let's face it, Busby was just an unattractive political candidate - came close - but no cigar! Perhaps someone else would have made a better presentation & a more convincing argument against Bilbray. One would think with the recent Cunningham scandal the voters would react differently & in greater numbers but she frightened many voters by apparently supporting the wrong side of the immigration issue. Politicians have to wake up to the fact that this is a very emotional issue affecting the greatest majority of Americans. Most Americans are just plain scared & have a perception of our politicians yielding to pressure from the masses of law breaking, non-English speaking, Illegal Aliens trying to intimidate the rest of us demanding that we give in by ignoring & not inforcing our established laws or protecting our borders. Too bad Bush, McClain & others are not paying attention to the American people, the legal citizens of this country, who still make up the vast majority of our nation as they seem to be focused in on their own agenda and the citizens be damned!"

Reality Check wrote on June 08, 2006 8:45 AM:"Skippy my boy - Importing third world poverty, disease, and great masses of people, is just too costly for the Middle class taxpayers? Get ready for a flood of refugees from Iraq, just like the one we had from Nam after we pulled out there. We could have redeveloped Mexico - but we built sewers in Baghdad. Put the immigration problem in perspective and look at how much tax money is skimmed away by deals like the Duke made, Drug Wars, Terrorist Wars, Homeland Insecurity, and on and on - vs. the real costs of illegal immigration. They are a drop in the bucket compared to the graft and pork barrel gluttony practiced by our Federal officials. Congratulations - you just sent another fox back to congress to guard our hen house."

The illegals are throwing it in the face of America! wrote on June 08, 2006 8:48 AM:"Does Mr. Bush and the others in leadership see how bold the illegal aleins are? This comment by La Raza today demonstrates his and other illegals desire to take over America with the help of Vincente Fox. "La Raza wrote on June 08, 2006 8:29 AM:"Bilbray cannot stop the Reconquista. California belongs to Aztlan" Are going to stand here and let this happen. If the politician don't stop the U.S Citizens will take up against this invasion. Let's hope those supposedly in charge do something! God Bless America for al races and peoples, not just one race like La Raza, who are racist and against America!"

Ray wrote on June 08, 2006 8:57 AM:"Like I said months ago, Busby needs to get more political experience locally first before running for the big job. She should go to Sacramento before setting her eyes on Washington. He Freudian slip on illegal aliens dodn't help her much at the end and the reason for that was her political inexperience. Besides, her positions were all over the ball park and she failed to address the immigration issue which in her district was a major issue siding with the Kennedy-Mc Cain amnesty plan, I forgot she never called it that, just used Mc Cain to sway some moderate republicans. I really never cared for her demeanor, she always looked like she was reading from a script instad of speaking from the heart. During the debates, any deviation from her script landed her in "camp babble". She is just not an effective politician, at least not yet."

Everyone should read the NY TImes today ... wrote on June 08, 2006 8:58 AM:"The Associated Press printed an article in the NY Times today quoted our President, Mr. Bush. When referring to enforcing our current laws and deporting the illegal aliens who continually ignore our laws and suck up our resources causing all real Americans and taxpayers to burden the cost, Mr. Bush's response was "Ain't Gonna Work" What happened to the proud leader of the free world? Why do he, McCain, and the Republican Governor for California Mr. Schwarzenegger let this happen to us. I for one feel like no one in government is hearing the general public and or the tax payers. I am against illegal aliens and I don't see it as a problem to get people, who are here illegal, out. I think sending the BP into the interior of America and deporting illegal aliens is their job. I bet many taxpayer and U.S. Citizens feel the same way, but no one is listening. They keep "Poo Pooing" the idea of building a wall, a no amnesty policy, and enforcement of the current laws as a joke and unrealistic! "

Penny wrote on June 08, 2006 9:04 AM:"I just want to know one thing, when is the deportation of all these mexicans going to begin? Brian Bilbray must keep his promise and begin his action immediately. They must all go. NO AMNESTY!!!! DEPORT, DEPORT, DEPORT!! We must protect the United States from a hostile take over. They must all go. In order to be safe. God Bless America"

To thanks Tina wrote on June 08, 2006 9:10 AM:"May I ask what you are talking about? I did not see a comment from tina, and that name was not mentioned in the article, did I miss something? I read these comments daily and I am just a little confused could be that I am just old. "

Ron wrote on June 08, 2006 9:12 AM:"Illegal Immigration may explain Bilbray win? Duh, ya think? I mean, how slow are these guys anyways? I keep hearing about these supposed polls saying American by a majority are for granting illegals citizenship. I haven't been polled, and none of my friends, or neighbors, I've asked. Either our leaders, and these newspaper guys are living in a parallel universe, or their just plain old retarded. I know that's not PC, but for heaven's sakes. They keep trying to tell us, "these are the issue you care about", and they haven't asked me a damn thing. Well, Bilbray winning on this issue is the message, and if the Washington types don't get it, they'll be gone come November. Maybe when their standing on a street corner along side the illegals looking for work, they'll get it."

I hate White collar Criminals wrote on June 08, 2006 9:16 AM:""Longtime North County political consultant Jack Orr said that once Cunningham was convicted, ethics reform became a non-issue for most Republicans and many others." So another unethical Republican is in office. I wonder how long it will take for Bilbray to start taking bribes? Well I am sure there will be a jail cell right next to Old Duke waiting for Brian. "

Ron is right! wrote on June 08, 2006 9:18 AM:"Ron is right! Washington needs to listen to the taxpayers and not just one group who are here illegally and have no voice! We want our country back and the government to do somehting about it. Ever heard of the Boston Tea Party! Taxation without Representation! Then there was a war! Do something now! Deprt those here unlawfull and enforce the laws of America. What is the president doing?"

To Ray wrote on June 08, 2006 9:20 AM:"My goodness man, it is so difficult reading your comment. Do you think maybe you could invest in dictionary to make your very valid comments legible? "

You go Penny! wrote on June 08, 2006 9:21 AM:"I am just as frustrated with these crimes happening as well. It is simple enough, deport them, no amnesty, build a wall, and go into the interior with BP agents who are getting paid now to do nothing! Do your job! Enforce the laws. Where is the Union Leader of the Bp now. He should be in the news daily screaming about the president and the other in D.C. "

VEE wrote on June 08, 2006 9:24 AM:"Amnesty will occur! GET OVER IT! Do u know how U got here? Your families come from a further place than where these MEXICANS are coming from!!! The history of your blood is to shed blood! How dare you judge what is good for this country! This country is built on lies!!! OPEN YOUR EYES! Whom ever has the money will win! ETHICS ARE NOT INVOLVED!"

Kerry wrote on June 08, 2006 9:33 AM:"To: Sick of it: You are right. Republicans are afraid of any change that will damage the great country that we are. Allowing massive immigration for political gain, and allowing our political leaders to sell-out the American tax-payer is unacceptable. Our leaders owe it to the American people to protect them; not give away our rights to foreign nationals that are protesting to have access to our tax treasury! They need to protest in Mexico; it it high time Mexico be held responsible for their own people. Republicans do not vote lock step with their party; if you haven't noticed; the President is Republican; and we are totally against his massive amnesty sham!"

Tay wrote on June 08, 2006 9:53 AM:"Hey, all of you just hang on a few more years and you will see who has the power. Continue celebrating because in five years you will be crying. There is a major campaing going under way to register new latino voters. Are you afraid of changes?"

Mark wrote on June 08, 2006 9:56 AM:"It’s illegal immigration stupid! "

Hey Skip wrote on June 08, 2006 9:56 AM:"There was no 'waking up', the rest of America is laughing at your outrageously fringe electorate over there in the 50th! Just amazing. Seriously, how did you paint an ex-Republican that endorsed Bush's immigration plan as a liberal that's soft on immigration. Oh yeah, you're fringe reactionaries that believe anything."

US Citizen in Townsite wrote on June 08, 2006 10:05 AM:"Grats San Marcos on electing Bilbray. You'll get a no-nonsense voice in the House on Immigration. Still, when Rep. Mike Pence's (R) backdoor-legislation that's being touted as a "no amnesty guest-worker bill" comes to the floor, you'll see whether Bilbray is really worth his salt by voting against it."

OceansideKos wrote on June 08, 2006 10:07 AM:"My conservative (read "Rush and Roger are dreamy; and smart!) buddy claimed Francine was making promises she couldn't keep - like getting rid of the Rethuglican corruption. OK so now we have Bilbray, who is going to somehow single-handedly solve the immigration issue? Howard Dean predicted in 2005 that the Republicans would focus on illegal immigration in 2006, since none of their other big ideas is panning out too well. Fear(the gays are trying to destroy America!) and racism(brown bogeymen under your bed- watchout!)always win over the hearts and minds of the Republican base. It's so predictable it's pathetic."

Mike wrote on June 08, 2006 10:25 AM:"How sad, this discussion has deteriorated into quoting Howard Dean. Was he on or off his med’s at the time? "

Penny are you crazy? wrote on June 08, 2006 10:36 AM:"In your comment you said "when is the deportation of all these mexicans going to begin" Do you really think that all Mexicans are going to be deported? Do you really think that all mexicans are here in the United States illegally? You see that is what upsets me. I am against illegal immigration but when we begin to group together and attack persons because of their ethnicity or skin color we can really get in to problems. "

It has begun folks, this Bilbray win in California, demonstrates that Illegal immigration is the number one issue on most folks minds! I also have to say, I am a little bit surprised, I was afraid because the corruption of Duke Cunningham was going to cause an upset in a republican dominated site. When I heard this man won I knew in my heart is has started . there will be much more to come, I think anyone running against this amnesty bill the Senate forced on the American people will come out ahead. It doesn't matter if the wins are won by a small margin as the democrats are gloating about, what matters is winning This has upset some senators in Ca. how it makes my heart pitty patter, to see Pelosi, with such a drawn depressed look on her face at this win by Bilbray, her snide remarks and poor loser face is, a pure pleasure for me to see.