Thread: Did Polls Underestimate Democrats’ Latino Vote?

FiveThirtyEight - Nate Silver\'s Political Calculus
November 3, 2010, 9:33 pm
Did Polls Underestimate Democrats’ Latino Vote?
By NATE SILVER

The two Senate races where the actual winner was different from the leader in our polling-based projections were Colorado and Nevada (it’s also probable that we’ll miss Lisa Murkowski’s victory in Alaska once all her write-in votes are — eventually — counted).

The miss in Colorado wasn’t bad — our forecast had Michael Bennet as about a 1-point underdog, and he won by 1 point instead, although there are still a few votes left to count.

In Nevada, however, where most polls showed Sharron Angle ahead and Harry Reid instead won by almost 6 points, the polls were pretty far off the mark. Errors like that occur quite frequently in primaries and in House races, where the polling landscape is tougher. They also occur sometimes in lopsided races, which are more difficult to hit on the nose. It’s fairly unusual, however, to have the consensus of polls off by 7 or 8 points in an extremely competitive Senate or gubernatorial general election.

I riffed a little bit last night on why the public polls might have been wrong in Nevada; I speculated, for instance, that the fact that Mr. Reid is the sort of candidate whom one votes for unenthusiastically might have skewed the turnout models.

There is another theory, however, which was proposed to me last night by Matt Barreto of the polling firm Latino Decisions.

“There is one overarching reason why the polls were wrong in Nevada,â€

This the third article tonight that talks about pandering to the Hispanic vote instead of talking about Amerticans of Hispanic decent.

The pandering racecard? JMO

Setting up the voter roles for at least the past two years. It appears to me that they sued the State of Colorado to ensure that the illegal voters weren't purged. La Familia sound familiar? They have been attacking SOS's from several states for puurging the voter roles of people whose refistration cards were returned. More stories at the site.Colorado SoS Sued For Illegal Purge Of Voters
Tuesday, 28 October 2008, 3:42 pm
The Advancement Project
Advancement Project Sues Colorado Secretary Of State For Illegal Purge Of Voters

Yesterday, Advancement Project, a national voter protection organization, and others filed a lawsuit on behalf of Colorado Common Cause, Mi Familia Vota, a non-partisan civic engagement campaign, and Service Employees International Union (SEIU) against Colorado Secretary of State, Mike Coffman, to challenge an illegal purges and cancellation practices that apparently have removed between 16,000 and 30,000 voters from Colorado’s rolls.

“These purge programs violate a federal law that is intended to protect eligible voters from being swept off the rolls," said Penda Hair, co-director, Advancement Project. "The state admits engaging in these practices and purging thousands of voters’ registration records without notice. We felt that filing this action was the only way we could ensure that thousands of Colorado residents would not show up at the polls on Election Day only to find they could not participate in this historic national election.â€

[quote]“There is one overarching reason why the polls were wrong in Nevada,â€