Thread: EU has few options as Iran talks near collapse

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050812/wl_ ... iran_eu_dc

EU has few options as Iran talks near collapse

By Madeline Chambers Fri Aug 12,11:40 AM ET

LONDON (Reuters) - European negotiators have few options left to persuade
Iran to halt sensitive atomic work and may have to come to terms with Tehran pursuing its nuclear program, as two years of talks inch toward breakdown.


European Union diplomats say privately Iran's resumption of sensitive nuclear work this week all but ends its talks with the trio of Britain, France and Germany, which have been trying to stop Iran developing a nuclear bomb.

"It is very difficult to see this process being relaunched without Iran having a major change of heart and from where I'm standing that looks unlikely," said one EU diplomat.

Tehran's rejection of the latest EU proposals prompted the bloc to hand the case to the
United Nations' nuclear watchdog, the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which on Thursday demanded Iran resume its freeze on nuclear work.

With a possible referral to the
U.N. Security Council looming, a move that could lead to sanctions, some analysts say a changed climate in Iran since June's presidential election has made it more difficult to assess Tehran's intentions.

Iran, which has employed brinkmanship tactics throughout the EU talks, has adopted a tougher stance since the election of conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who Europe fears may usher in an era of harsher anti-Western sentiment.

However, diplomats are unsure if Iran's resumption of nuclear fuel work is a negotiating ploy or a new approach.

Few analysts doubt Iranian determination to develop a nuclear program, whether purely civilian or otherwise.

"The reality is Iran will have a nuclear program," said Wyn Bowen of Kings College, London. "At least the EU diplomacy has stalled it by two years."

Tehran denies Western accusations that its atomic program is a front for covert bomb-making and says it needs nuclear power to cope with booming electricity demand.

The EU tried to woo Iran into halting nuclear work with economic incentives and offers of access to power while threatening a referral to the U.N. Security Council.

However, the carrot-and-stick approach proved unsuccessful because only Washington could offer the deals and technology Iran wanted while also posing a real military threat.

WHAT NEXT?

The next step comes on September 3 when IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei reports on Iran.

If it continues to defy global demands, another IAEA meeting will be held and Europe and Washington will push for a Security Council referral, not mentioned in Thursday's resolution.

London says there is a "non-confrontational way forward" but only if Iran again suspends all its nuclear fuel activity.

Amid fears Iran will not oblige, frantic diplomacy is under way to bolster the EU position.

"We are now working to ensure Iran stays in the doghouse and are building support for a Security Council referral," said one EU diplomat.

However, Western diplomats are not confident China and Russia would back any U.N. sanctions against Tehran, in which case the EU might impose its own.

In the long run, several analysts predict a return to negotiation, if only because the stakes are so high.

"Diplomacy will return at some point because no one wants Iran to have an unfettered nuclear program," said Marc Leonard of London's Center for European Reform.

Analysts say Iran, as a matter of national pride, wants to avoid a Security Council referral. To that end it, unlike
North Korea, has cooperated with the IAEA.

Even Washington, which takes a harder line, has expressed willingness to give talks more time. Few analysts believe the United States, bogged down in
Iraq, is about to launch attacks on Iranian facilities or even to sanction Israeli strikes.

WHAT IS THIS REALLY ALL ABOUT?

Does Iran really want to attack nations with nuclear bombs or are they really trying to diversify their energy program and build nuclear reactors?

Are WE trying to prevent IRAN from having nuclear reactors for electricity?

Are WE trying to keep the nation of IRAN oil-dependent?

I smell a RAT here.