EuroMigra : No Euro Children - Economic Political Stagnation

Inconclusive German election may be bad for Latin America

Miami Herald

Andres Oppenheimer


Posted on Thu, Sep. 22, 2005

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/ne ... 708508.htm




Germany's economy may grow even less than the meager 0.8 percent projected for this year. Two days before Sunday's election, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its forecasts for Germany's growth in 2006 from 1.9 percent to 1.2 percent.

The rest of Europe is not performing better. The IMF has reduced its projected growth rates for this year in Britain, France and Italy, which are now respectively expected to grow only 1.9 percent, 1.5 percent, and zero.

And that may be only the beginning of Europe's troubles. Most Western European countries face a serious long-term problem: their people don't want to have children. Fewer and fewer workers are supporting more and more retirees, and this is straining Europe's pensions systems.

Low birth rates have forced Germany, France and Spain to import immigrants from Arab and African countries. But that, in countries with unemployment rates of nearly 10 percent , is creating a growing anti-immigrant sentiment, and exacerbating social tensions.

Of course, the solution to many of Europe's problems would be for Germany, France and Italy to cut their early retirement ages, five-week-long vacations and other generous social benefits.

Vicente Duque