http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/miami/21700.htm

Experts eye change warily

In the wake of a power shift in the U.S. Congress, top Mexican officials expressed cautious optimism on Wednesday over the prospects for a guest worker program with the United States

By Jonathan Roeder/The Herald Mexico
El Universal
Jueves 09 de noviembre de 2006

In the wake of a power shift in the U.S. Congress, top Mexican officials expressed cautious optimism on Wednesday over the prospects for a guest worker program with the United States.In a radio interview, Foreign Relations Secretary Luis Ernesto Derbez said the Democrats´ surge in the U.S. Congress showed that U.S. citizens "have sent a mandate for change."

U.S. President George W. Bush, whose Republican Party lost control of the lower house and possibly the Senate in elections on Tuesday, has supported migration reform, but initiatives in Congress have stalled. On Wednesday Bush admitted during a news conference in Washington that the setback could help get the debate started again.

"I believe we can find some common ground with the Democrats," Bush said in reference to immigration reform and a guest worker program.

Many analysts here were more guarded in their appraisals.

Jeffrey Weldon, a political scientist at the Mexican Autonomous Technological Institute (ITAM), said the Democrats may have trouble finding common ground on immigration even within their own party, since some of their new lawmakers are conservative on social issues.He added Democrats could even end up supporting the Secure Fence Act legislating a border wall. The bill was approved in October by a Republican-dominated Congress.

"The Democrats don´t want to look weak on immigration enforcement so if it´s a relatively easy way to (look tough), maybe they´ll go along with it," he said.
The Secure Fence Act does not include funding for the proposed 700-mile fence, although some of the money needed will be taken from a previously approved homeland security spending measure. The new, Democrat- controlled Congress could end the project by nixing funds for further construction next year.

The bill has been harshly criticized in Mexico, with Fox saying the measure is "an embarrassment for the United States."

Jorge Santibáñez, president of the College of the Northern Border, a Tijuana-based research institution, said that while the Democrats may prove more willing than Republicans to support legislation on immigration, Mexico still must show the United States that it is working to stem the flow of migrants north.

"Mexico´s new challenge is to generate credibility and confidence (in the United States)," Santibáñez said on Wednesday.