Experts say Mexico ripe for insurrection
Diana Washington Valdez / El Paso Times Staff
Posted: 02/17/2009 12:00:00 AM MST

The Mexican government is not aware of an armed movement that presents a threat to Mexico's security, but officials are monitoring whether the self-styled Movimiento Armado del Norte (Northern Armed Movement) resorts to more than online rhetoric in the future.

Experts said Mexico's instability, due to widespread killings and economic woes, could give rise to a new insurrection, at least in parts of the country.

The alleged organization issued two communiqués this year, the second with a Chihuahua state dateline. It claims to exert influence in the states of Chihuahua, Baja California, Sonora, Coahuila and part of Durango.

"Mexican authorities first knew of this alleged subversive movement through its first communiqué made public on January 1, 2009, and once again through its second communiqué on January 24, 2009," said Ricardo Alday, spokesman for the Mexican embassy in Washington.

"During complicated political, economical or social junctures in Mexico and other nations throughout the world, it is common to see the sudden appearance of statements or communiqués signed by alleged subversive movements, more commonly known as 'paper tiger' organizations."

Does it pose a problem for the Mexican government?

"So far, the Mexican government does not have any information that could corroborate the existence of this alleged subversive group anywhere in Mexican territory," Alday said.

Movimiento Armado del Norte communiqués signed by alleged Commander Ruben Corona generated considerable buzz on the Internet. Its first communiqué appeared Jan. 1, the 15th anniversary of the Zapatista uprising in Chiapas that took everyone by surprise.
The communiqués rail against foreign investors and government abuses, and its author claims the group will work from within the system to change the government.

"We have to remember most of the Mexican Revolution was carried out in northern Mexico," said Ray Sadler of Las Cruces, author and expert on Mexico's political history. "The conditions are ripe in Mexico for an armed movement, given the current instability. But, it would take a lot more resources to carry out something like this today than it did during the (1910) Revolution."

Sadler said only the drug cartels possess these kinds of resources, including weapons, to sustain an armed insurrection. The sphere of influence the alleged movement claims for itself also happens to be the territory drug dealers are competing to control.

"It could be a guy on a computer writing this stuff, or it could any number of things, and, yes, it could even be drug dealers trying to divert the Mexican army's attention away from themselves," Sadler said.

Carlos Ramirez, publisher of La Crisis in Mexico City and noted political analyst, and Argentine native Jorge Lofredo, an expert on armed movements in Mexico and other parts of Latin America, said they do not know much about the Movimiento Armado del Norte beyond the Web's communiqués.

Ramirez says there are groups in Mexico that surface at times, such as the EPR (Popular Revolutionary Army) in the state of Guerrero, but he is not aware of a single organization or collaborative with national influence and power.

The government has managed to stomp out previous dissident movements, but the Zapatistas are the exception, he said.

"The Mexican government was surprised at the international popularity of the Zapatistas and Subcommander Marcos, and backed off," Ramirez said. "Then you have the EPR, who's turned up in public on occasion to send a message, wearing masks and firing weapons into the air, before going underground again."

Twelve years ago, the Mexican Federal Preventive Police identified more than 90 armed movement groups in 22 Mexican states, including three in Chihuahua: Comando Coralifero, Ejercito Villista de Liberacion Nacional, and Ejercito Popular Villista Revolucionarios de la Division del Norte. Although the law enforcement agency did not disclose details, officials said some of the groups had limited national influence.

Known armed movements, such as Movimiento Armado Revolucionario (Armed Revolutionary Movement), and the Liga Comunista 23 de Septiembre, were active in Chihuahua state during the 1960s and 1970s, but the government suppressed them, according to Laura Castellanos, author of the book "Mexico Armado: 1943-1981."

Lofredo says it's difficult to interpret an organization like the self-styled Northern Armed Movement. It alleges to operate in a region notorious for drug-trafficking, and where the Comando Ciudadano por Juárez (Juárez Citizens Command), another alleged rebel group, appeared online and threatened to kill a criminal each day in Juárez, Lofredo said.

If it exists, "the Comando Ciuadadano por Juárez would be considered a paramilitary group," Lofredo said.

Last year, an armed commando, similar to those used by the drug cartels, killed farm leader Armando Villarreal Martha in Nuevo Casas Grandes, Chihuahua. Villarreal was the leader of the National Agrodynamic Organization, which led protests at the border against high electricity prices and sought to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Labor advocate Cipriana Jurado said that around the time of Villarreal's death, government officials harassed numerous activists in Juárez and other Chihuahua communities. No one has been arrested in connection with Villarreal's death.

The Movimiento Armado del Norte also said it is using cells to infiltrate the government, and like Villarreal and the Zapatistas, it too wants Mexico to renegotiate NAFTA, a 15-year-old free trade agreement among Canada, Mexico and the United States.

During his election campaign, President Barack Obama said NAFTA, which went into effect Jan. 1, 1994, was due for changes.

Diana Washington Valdez may be reached at dvaldez@elpasotimes.com; 546-6140.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_11719367