Thread: Immigration Reform in What Lifetime?

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/01/29 ... ord-count/

Sign of the SOTU: Immigration Reform in What Lifetime?

Posted: 01/29/10

The day after a State of the Union address is often dominated by the Politics of the Word Count as the speech is parsed sentence by sentence in an effort to divine the president's true priorities. And by these strict standards of presidential verbiage, immigration reform -- once thought to be near the top of Barack Obama's 2010 legislative agenda -- was widely viewed Thursday as the biggest loser.

Even after making allowances for mushy speechwriting, the president's remarks about immigration (a 38-word sentence connected not by logic but by four separate "ands") were a portrait in presidential vagueness: "And we should continue the work of fixing our broken immigration system -- to secure our borders and enforce our laws and ensure that everyone who plays by the rules can contribute to our economy and enrich our nation."

Nowhere in that ungainly clump of words was there a specific reference to legislation, let alone a presidential appeal to Congress to pass it. Moreover, Obama's speechwriters consigned immigration reform (Hispanic voters) to the liberal constituency group ghetto of the State of the Union address, putting it right after an appeal to rescind the military's don't ask/don't tell policy (gay voters) and a promise to zealously enforce equal-pay laws (women voters). "We knew in advance that it would be a drive-by reference in the speech," said Frank Sharry, the executive director of America's Voice, an advocacy group organized to press for immigration reform legislation. "But we didn't know that the president would be driving by at 75 miles an hour."

The prospects for immigration reform before the 2010 election do indeed look far dicier than they did two months ago, when Janet Napolitano, the secretary of homeland security, laid out the administration's legislative goals in a major speech. But those changing fortunes have little to do with Obama's rhetoric. Asked about immigration reform at a Thursday press conference, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid replied, "The president, I don't think, dropped the ball. He talked about immigration reform last night. He has spoken with us about immigration reform. It is something we need to do."

Congressional timidity -- and not a waning White House commitment -- is the major obstacle standing in the way of passage of a compromise immigration bill that would combine enhanced border enforcement, a legal guest-worker program, and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants currently living in this country. "There is no question that the Massachusetts Senate election made everything harder," said Tamar Jacoby, the president of ImmigrationWorks USA, a business alliance championing reform. "It's not that it's another Republican vote in the Senate. It's that the Massachusetts results made the other 534 members of Congress afraid to wear their ties the wrong way between now and November -- let alone take a vote on controversial issues."

Right now, all the action on Capitol Hill is behind the scenes as New York Democrat Chuck Schumer and South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham, both members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, try to hammer out the elusive final details of the legislation. As Schumer put it during his Thursday press conference with Reid, "I've said all along -- even before last Tuesday with the Massachusetts election -- that we have to have this bill be a bipartisan bill, two Democrats, two Republicans to introduce it. We're not there yet. We're still working on getting our Republicans. But we're talking to people." Although Schumer did not directly refer to it, the major remaining contentious issues in the compromise bill revolve around the size and scope of a guest-worker program, with business groups and labor unions predictably at odds.

Even at this risk-averse political moment, with congressional Democrats curling up in the fetal position, there remain persuasive reasons why the time is right to pass immigration reform. Enhanced border enforcement and the deep recession have combined to lessen the political tensions surrounding the issue. Schumer, for example, met Wednesday with former CNN anchor Lou Dobbs, who was once the personification of the frenzy against illegal immigrants. While reliable statistics are elusive, many experts believe that illegal border crossings from Mexico are at their lowest levels in three decades.

But in the midst of the recession, American workers remain wary about competition in the workplace from immigrants, whatever their legal status. A Gallup Poll last August found that 50 percent of Americans want immigration flows to be reduced while only 14 percent favor increasing them.

Immigration reform also remains one of those rare high-decibel political issues with a bipartisan tradition. George W. Bush championed immigration reform, as did John McCain, although the Arizona senator has become increasingly skittish as he faces primary opposition this year on his right flank from former congressman J.D. Hayworth. Business groups, including the Chamber of Commerce, and companies like Microsoft and Marriott, also favor reform. "If we get into the mood of solving things in a bipartisan way," said Jacoby, putting an optimistic spin on things, "immigration reform could be third on the runway after health care and financial reform."

Congress, of course, can elevate inaction into an art form during an election year.

And, despite Obama's campaign promise in 2008 to make immigration reform "a top priority in my first year as president," Democrats may be willing to gamble that Latino voters will forgive them if they kick the immigration issue into 2011. But as long as the backstairs Senate negotiations continue, immigration reform still has a pulse and reports of its death are wildly

Enhanced border enforcement and the deep recession have combined to lessen the political tensions surrounding the issue.

Huh? Political tensions around the issue of illegal immigration have lessened?! Is this author deaf, dumb, and blind? And he thinks we actually believe any BS about "enhanced border enforcement"?

Schumer, for example, met Wednesday with former CNN anchor Lou Dobbs, who was once the personification of the frenzy against illegal immigrants.

Well, isn't that special: Traitorous, Phoney, Hippocrit Lou Dobbs is now meeting with Sen Schumer about immigration reform.

While reliable statistics are elusive, many experts believe that illegal border crossings from Mexico are at their lowest levels in three decades.

No, illegal border crossings aren't necessarily down, some statistics have indicated apprehensions are down. That just means we are stopping or arresting fewer illegal border crossers. Even more could actually be coming over.