Thread: Grave warnings in U.S. about Mexico's future

Grave warnings in U.S. about Mexico's future

Mexican government disputes its risk of becoming a failed state.
By Ken Ellingwood

LOS ANGELES TIMES


Sunday, January 25, 2009

MEXICO CITY — Stark assessments about the threat that drug crime poses to Mexico's stability have put the government of President Felipe Calderón on the defensive as he tries to forge a relationship with a new U.S. president.

Spiraling violence has prompted some American officials and analysts to warn that Mexico faces a risk of collapse within several years.

The U.S. Joint Forces Command has recommended that Mexico be monitored alongside Pakistan as a "weak and failing" state that could crumble swiftly under relentless assault by violent drug cartels.

Retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey, the former U.S. drug czar, said in a separate analysis that the Mexican government "is fighting for its survival against narco-terrorism" and could lose effective control over large swaths near the U.S. border. Outgoing CIA chief Michael Hayden listed Mexico next to Iran as a possible top challenge for President Barack Obama. And former House Speaker Newt Gingrich predicted this month that Mexico could turn into a surprise crisis for Obama by year's end.

The assessments come as Calderón seeks to claim gains in his fight against drug traffickers, a campaign that has aggravated violent feuds among gangs. More than 5,300 people died in drug-related violence in Mexico last year.

Mexican officials and most analysts scoff at depictions of Mexico as a failing state. They say it bears little resemblance to situations such as those in Somalia, Haiti or Sudan.

"It's a very bad analysis," said Raul Benitez, an expert on security and U.S.-Mexico relations at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. "Mexico has some failed institutions inside the government, but not the whole state."

"It seems unacceptable to me that Mexico would be deemed a security risk," Interior Minister Fernando Gomez Mont said this month. "There are problems in Mexico that we are dealing with, that we can continue to deal with."

But denials by Mexican officials probably won't stop the grave assessments.

"They're pushing back, but I think the evidence is on the other side," said George Grayson, a Mexico scholar at the College of William & Mary in Williamsburg, Va. "You've got more cartels, in more diverse activities. They're in more states. They're killing more people. They're kidnapping more people and getting more attention for the savagery of their acts."

www.statesman.com

Jean, the part that really stinks is that I have to travel to Juarez regularly on business! It's my job! I would quit in a heartbeat if I can find another job. Wife hates it and I hate it.

Originally Posted by TexasBorn

Jean, the part that really stinks is that I have to travel to Juarez regularly on business! It's my job! I would quit in a heartbeat if I can find another job. Wife hates it and I hate it.

Wow oh wow! Pease take extreme care TexasBorn.

I sure hope the supply you with kevlar attire and your pay increases when you are in this high risk zone. If not you need to negotiate this and maybe retain a lawyer. No job is worth the risk of going to Juarez.

mexigrrrl, I have often thought about contacting an attorney about this. The problem is, my company would just hire someone else to do it if I don't.

Originally Posted by mexigrrrl

I sure hope the supply you with kevlar attire and your pay increases when you are in this high risk zone. If not you need to negotiate this and maybe retain a lawyer. No job is worth the risk of going to Juarez.