Thread: Hispanic birthrate dips in Arizona

Hispanic birthrate dips in Arizona

Fewer mothers under 20 is what's driving trend

by Ronald J. Hansen - Sept. 1, 2011 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

Hispanic women in Arizona are having children at a significantly lower rate than in past decades, which could slow overall population growth if the trend continues, according to new state and federal data.

Hispanic birthrates and net migration into the state have contributed heavily to the state's rapid population growth. The decline in the Hispanic birthrate from 2000 to 2010, coupled with an overall drop, already has demographers contemplating scaled-back projections for the state's future population. Those projections are used for planning an array of services from schools to roads and housing.

Mapping the 2010 Census | Census: Kids on the rise

From roughly 2000 to 2010, total fertility rates for Hispanic women declined from 3.0 births per woman to 2.4, according to the Arizona State Demographer's Office. The drop was most pronounced for Hispanic women younger than 20 years old. Birthrates for Hispanic women 35 years and older increased slightly but are a relatively small portion of total births.

"We have been anticipating this, but the magnitude is surprising," said Jim Chang, senior demographer for the demographer's office. "It's a big change."

In the near term, the trend would likely mean "tens of thousands" of fewer residents, Chang said. "When you project for many years, it adds up. There's a cumulative effect."

Experts cite various reasons for the decline.

Carlos Vélez-Ibáñez, director of the School of Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, said the trend is an extension of a pattern that began in Mexico and is likely occurring in other U.S. states. As more Mexicans moved from the rural areas to cities and became more educated, they tended to have fewer children and the birth rate declined. Most Hispanics in Arizona are of Mexican descent.

"Mexico itself has changed from a very rural nation to a very urban one," he said. "That shift started in the 1960s."

Between 1960 and 1965, there were 6.75 births per Mexican woman, according to data from the United Nations. By the 1990-95 period, that had fallen to 3.19, the U.N. reports.

Assimilation also could be a factor as birthrates for Hispanics with multiple generations in the U.S. are beginning to mirror those of the country as a whole.

But Vélez-Ibáñez rejects the idea that assimilation alone explains the decline. He said that as in other countries like Mexico, as Hispanics become more educated and more affluent and as divorce rates creep up, their long-term birthrates will keep falling.

"In 20 to 25 years, you'll have replacement rate (births), and that's about it," Vélez-Ibáñez said.

Arizona averaged more than 2 percent annual growth in the past decade. About 40 percent of it was driven by natural changes from births and deaths. The remaining 60 percent was affected by net migration from other states and nations. Demographers monitor birthrates by race and ethnicity because differences among those groups can be distinct.

The change in the Hispanic birthrate was largely driven by a slowdown in births by mothers younger than 20 years old.

In 2000, that group had about 6,600 births in the one-year period around the census. Ten years later, Hispanic women younger than 20 had about 5,700 births. The decline is especially significant because census data show the number of women in those age groups increased from 118,000 to 182,000 over the decade.

Births among non-Hispanic women under 20 also declined in 2010, contributing to the overall decline in birthrates. The birthrate for all Arizona women fell from about 2.4 per woman in 2000 to 2.1 in 2010.

The declining birthrates in Arizona are similar to changes playing out nationwide. The 2010 census showed that population gains over the decade were the smallest since the Great Depression. Many demographers suspect the economic downturn was a key factor, with families postponing or limiting having children for financial reasons.

Census reports show the national birthrate for Hispanic women had been lower than in Arizona but was drifting higher near the end of the past decade even as Arizona's birthrate was likely flat or falling.

Since the 1940s, Arizona has been one of the fastest-growing states in the nation. Census data have shown that Hispanics account for the greatest share of the growth in recent years.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/ ... z1WirUanAi

This birth rate drop is probably the result of the illegal alien Hispanics fleeing the state as reported widely by law enforcement, Federal agencies, and the press.

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