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Sunday, January 22, 2006

Immigration plans under microscope


By DENA BUNIS
The Orange County Register

The immigration-reform debate is about to move to the next level - aka the U.S. Senate. The players are the same, but there's been quite a role reversal in recent months.

For nearly a decade, there were fewer than a dozen Republican lawmakers who had been pushing for restrictions on immigration and crusading against illegal immigration. It was an uphill battle.

These members - most notably Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., and Orange County's own Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Huntington Beach – had not been taken very seriously, even within their own ranks. Mostly they concentrated efforts on preventing any bills from passing that expanded immigration or forgave illegal immigrants, as opposed to having illusions that they could advance their agenda through the House or Senate.

Now, these House members have not only increased in number but in clout.

They managed to get a bill through the House in the final days of 2005. This was no small feat. And they are vowing to make sure that no measure with a guest-worker program gets to President Bush's desk. The Republican National Committee averted a nasty debate on the issue at its winter meeting last week when it adopted a statement in support of Bush's call for a guest-worker program but not one that could be described as amnesty.

From an inside-the-Beltway vantage point, what seems to have emboldened the restrictionist members and enabled them to bolster their ranks is the animated, vocal and emotional involvement of ordinary citizens around the country who are campaigning against illegal immigration.

Public opinion polls are all over the map. People want something done about illegal immigration but don't agree on the proposals. Most are divided on the guest-worker question. Most also show that while people care about illegal immigration, it is not an issue they are likely to base their vote on. What is clear is that those who strenuously oppose illegal immigration are louder and more impassioned than those who would give these folks a pass and let them earn their way to legal status.

There's a renewed effort by the U.S. Catholic bishops – who support a relaxed immigration policy – to fire up parishioners. And others in a coalition of business, labor and clergy promise to do the same. But it's still not clear whether they can muster the kind of support that the vocal anti-illegal forces have.

This new dynamic puts those who favor a combined border security and guest worker bill in a bind.

While publicly they say they think they can get a comprehensive bill through the Senate and to Bush's desk, privately many on that side of the debate say they would be happy to be able to keep an enforcement-only bill from emerging from any Senate-House conference.

Unlike the House enforcement-only bill, any Senate measure is likely to include a guest worker program, even though senators are divided as to what kind.

One camp - led by Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz. – seeks a temporary worker plan that forces immigrants to go home to apply and has no path to legalization.

The other camp – led by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass. – says that approach won't work. They want to allow illegal immigrants to come forward, pay a fine and earn their way to legal residence.

California's senators - Democrats Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer – have not weighed in much. Both have been sensitive to the agriculture industry's work-force needs but neither has so far signed on to either bill. Feinstein has been particularly opposed to any comprehensive guest-worker plan.

If the Senate passes anything, what's pretty certain is that it won't be the same bill that came out of the House. Who knows what will happen once senators and House members try to get together on this one. If past is prologue, less will happen than more.

There is one politically powerful wild card here. It's an unusual coalition of strange bedfellows that has developed around this issue.

It's not often in this town that the president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce sits next to the head of the biggest public employee union in the nation (Service Employees International Union) and a couple of chairs down from the head of the Laborers union and they all agree on something. They all support the McCain-Kennedy approach to immigration reform.

Chamber President Tom Donohue had a determined look on his face at a news conference the other day when he took credit - along with others in coalition - for narrowing the margin of victory for the House immigration bill. He remembers the margin as 20. It actually passed by a pretty comfortable 57 votes.

But nonetheless, Donohue is convinced that with some more "communication" - aka strong-armed lobbying - the Chamber and its allies can persuade more Republicans to go along with their view.

Donohue even made it clear that should they fail on Capitol Hill, their next step would be to ask Bush to take out his veto stamp for the first time.

We're a long way from that point. But it's certainly going to get hotter – and uglier - before we know whether something will actually happen or this becomes another issue that remains unsolved.

We'll be watching.