UK: Immigration timebomb: Lies that created a soaring population
Last updated at 00:37am on 22nd October 2007

Ten years of complacency. Ten years of dishonesty and drift. Ten years in which Britain has been sleepwalking into a social revolution.

No longer is it possible to pretend that Labour's failure to tackle immigration isn't having the most profound consequences.

A devastating analysis by Cambridge economics professor Robert Rowthorn warns that our population will soar to 81 million within the next 70 years, largely because of immigration and a higher birthrate among migrant families.

His findings echo projections by Oxford professor David Coleman, which show the number living here will rise to at least 75million within 40 years.

That will impose huge pressures on public services.

The increase will be the equivalent of two cities the size of London, with all that means for the green belt, water supplies and the environment.

Our ethnic mix will be transformed, with non-whites making up 29 per cent of the population, compared with nine per cent at the last census. A revolution, indeed.

Yes, past immigration has brought considerable advantages. Public services couldn't function without staff from overseas.

And as this paper has frequently argued, properly managed migration can have great economic benefits, as the American experience shows.

But there isn't a trace of proper management in a Government that has lost control of our borders, allowed the asylum system to slide into a shambles and presided over the biggest surge of immigration in our history, while massaging the figures to hide the truth.

Far from consulting the public, it stifled discussion (until recently) by smearing critics as "racist".

Whatever their colour or creed, the people of Britain deserve better than this. We need open, honest debate. Shouldn't Labour begin by publishing a sober assessment of how many more people this small island can absorb?
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UK: Today's children will see 21million MORE people cram into the UK, says expert
By JAMES SLACK
Last updated at 06:50am on 22nd October 2007

Forecast: Prof Robert Rowthorn predicts a 21million increase in the population by 2074

The UK population will increase by a third, to 81million, in the lifetime of children born today, experts predict.

They say the rise, fuelled by immigration and higher birth rates, will put enormous strain on schools, hospitals and other public services.

The forecast of a 21million increase by 2074 comes from economics professor Robert Rowthorn of Cambridge University.

In evidence to Parliament, he said: "Large-scale immigration will lead to a rapid and sustained growth in population, with negative economic and environmental consequences in the form of overcrowding, congestion, pressure on housing and public services and loss of environmental amenities.

"It also undermines the labour market position of the most vulnerable and least skilled sections of the local workforce, including many in the ethnic minority population, who must compete against the immigrants."

The professor also said there was no evidence to back the Government's ecomomic case for allowing large numbers of people to move here.

Professor Rowthorn says immigration is currently adding 205,000 to the population every year. Migrants are mostly young and many start families here.

These two factors alone, he said, would take the population to 77million by 2074.

But even this could be an under-estimate, he believes, as fertility rates in the UK are increasing - itself partly the result of migrants having more children.

Once this is factored in, the population projection reaches 81million by 2074.

Population: The increase is being fuelled by immigration and a higher birth rate, itself partly the result of migrants having more children

The findings are similar to those produced by Oxford University professor David Coleman last week. He said the number of people living in the UK is likely to exceed 75million by 2051.

Professor Rowthorn said that if Britain allowed no more immigration. the population would fall seven million by 2074.

The Cambridge expert is a consultant to the International Monetary Fund, the UN Commission on Trade and Development and the International Labour organisation.

He has advised British government departments, and is a regular in the Chancellor's seminar group on large-scale economic issues.

He told a House of Lords committee: "Large-scale immigration is of minor economic benefit to the existing population of the UK as a whole, although it is certainly of benefit to the immigrants, their families and sometimes their countries of origin."

The findings of the two academics will put further pressure on the Government to reduce net migration - the numbers arriving compared to those leaving.

Last Wednesday, Ministers admitted for the first time that the large scale of immigration over the past decade was placing a huge strain on public services.

A Home Office survey of public sector workers found that some low-level crime is increasing, schools are struggling to cope with Eastern Europeans who speak little or no English and community tensions are rising in some areas.

It added that GPs and A&E departments are coming under pressure from migrants with illnesses such as TB, or those who turn up at a hospital instead of a surgery.

Housebuyers are also being priced out of the market by both migrants looking to settle here and landlords buying properties to let.

Immigration Minister Liam Byrne said it was clear communities were "unsettled" and a new balance should be struck between the needs of the economy and society in general.

But in a separate Home Office report, officials said immigrants often work harder and are filling gaps in the jobs market. Treasury officials have predicted that a million more will arrive by 2012.

Another group of academics claimed yesterday that Britons will increasingly welcome migrant workers as they realise they could hold the key to their retirement hopes.

Professor Sharun Mukand, of Tufts University in Massachusetts, told a conference in Nottingham that many countries would soon face a migration dilemma. Ageing populations and rising social security payments were likely to demand the importation of a younger workforce.

Shadow Home Secretary David Davis said Gordon Brown's open-door immigration policy has "papered over the cracks in the economy" but completely ignored the effect on housing and public services.

He added: "While we've had record levels of immigration, a million under-25s have been dumped on the scrapheap, not in work or training."
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