Iowans Feel Snubbed, but Will It Matter?

By Michael D. Shear and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, August 13, 2007; Page A01

DES MOINES, Aug. 12 -- If there was one thing that was plain at Saturday's gathering of Republicans in Ames, Iowa, it was this: They don't like to be dissed.

The GOP throng groaned and booed at any mention of the no-shows -- former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.) and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) -- and warned the missing candidates that skipping the straw poll will be remembered.

"It's just like going out on a date," said Iowa GOP Chairman Ray Hoffmann. "If you want to meet someone, you have to make an effort to talk to them." As for this year's missing suitors, he added, "If they don't show up, we feel a little bit neglected."

The absence of the trio robbed former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney of the bragging rights from defeating them. And it raises questions about whether the candidates can get back into the good graces of voters here before Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses in January.

More than that, though, their boycott of so venerable a ritual as the Ames contest strikes at a basic tenet of presidential politics: Don't mess with Iowa and New Hampshire. It also hints at a significant threat to Iowa's cherished place at the front of the nominating calendar: If most of the major candidates can ignore the straw poll with impunity, what's to stop them from doing the same with the caucus?

"I think if they thought they could have won, they'd have been here," Romney said on "Fox News Sunday." "If you can't compete in the heartland, if you can't compete in Iowa in August, how are you going to compete in January when the caucuses are held? And then how are you going to compete in November of '08?"

Romney's bravado may be a bit premature. The other major candidates insist that their courtship of Iowa voters is just beginning.

Thompson, not even a candidate yet, makes his first trip to the state on Friday. McCain's campaign manager sent an e-mail Saturday night saying, "We are fully committed to competing successfully in the Iowa caucuses, and we look forward to continuing to campaign aggressively in the Hawkeye State."

Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella said the decision to skip Ames was designed to keep the focus on winning the caucuses and not divert resources to a contest that awards no delegates to next year's Republican National Convention. "The bottom line is we are committed to Iowa," she said.

A week before the straw poll, Giuliani was asked while campaigning in the state what impact the balloting in Ames would have on the race for the GOP nomination.

"By the time we get to the caucus, it's not going to have a big impact," said Giuliani, who is returning to campaign in western Iowa on Wednesday. "Some decided to be in it, some decided to be out of it. We think ours is going to turn out to be the better strategy, to put our emphasis on the caucuses in January instead of the straw poll."

Giuliani may prove to be right, but he and the other Republicans have work to do to catch Romney in Iowa. The former governor leads in all recent scientific polls of the state, including a Washington Post-ABC News poll in late July. When Iowa Republicans were asked which candidate had worked hardest in their state, Romney, at 49 percent, was their overwhelming choice.

The rising candidacy of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is another factor.

Huckabee, who came in second in the straw poll, said Sunday on CBS's "Face the Nation" that the three no-shows were scared of competing in a conservative environment that does not favor their more moderate stands on some issues.

"What they did was forfeit the game," Huckabee said.

The Ames straw poll historically has been an important test of organizational strength and ability -- an opportunity for campaigns to see whether all the phone calls, voter identification and candidate appearances are translating into real support. Getting people to show up in Ames on a hot and humid day in the middle of summer is one indicator of whether people will turn out for the caucuses on a cold winter's night in January.

It's also a Hallmark card of sorts, a chance for a presidential hopeful to say, "I care."

Barb and Craig Damerval drove 2 1/2 hours from Winfield to Ames to support former Wisconsin governor Tommy G. Thompson. Craig Damerval, a corrections officer, said he was impressed by Thompson's visits to "every one" of Iowa's 99 counties. "I think that's super," he said.

Why, Damerval asked Saturday, would he and his wife support someone "if they don't come and show their interest in Iowa?"

Thompson came in sixth in the straw poll, however, and dropped out of the presidential race Sunday night.

McCain got an early taste of the voters' long memories when he made his first trip this year to Iowa. At a town hall meeting in Davenport, a young man took the microphone. "You ditched Iowa in 2000," he said. "I wonder why we should support you now."

McCain responded with a humorous put-down of his questioner, then tried to explain his absence in the 1999 caucus, saying he did not have enough money to compete in both Iowa and New Hampshire, "so therefore I trashed Iowa. It had nothing to do with my lack of appreciation for the heartland of America," McCain said.

Hoffmann said that answer is unlikely to satisfy many of Iowa's Republican voters. "Twice he's done that to Iowa," he said. "He's really going to have a tough time."

Romney's victory in Ames was expected, given the relatively weak competition he faced. And his rivals point out that the number of people who voted was significantly less than in 1999, despite millions of dollars and an all-out effort by Romney's campaign.

One campaign estimated that Romney spent $817 for every vote he won on Saturday.

But Romney has proved to be a tireless campaigner in the state, setting a frenetic pace that can include a half-dozen events a day. His son Josh traveled to all 99 Iowa counties, and Romney's wife, Ann, and the couple's other sons and daughters-in-law also spent a lot of time here. On Saturday, Team Romney counted more than 90 family members in the state.

The value of that effort may not be known until the nomination fight is over.

If Romney wins a contested battle in Iowa next year and goes on to capture the Republican nomination, it will go a long way toward cementing the state's place at the pinnacle of influence over who gets to be president.

But if the lesson from Ames is that it's okay to treat Iowa lightly, this could be the last year that Republican candidates schedule their campaigns around flights in and out of Des Moines.

Hoffmann said he hopes that doesn't happen.

"There's definitely time left," he said. "It's a long time before the election. If I was them -- they see what's happened. They can pick up the slack now. I definitely would show up if I were them."

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