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December 31, 2007
On the Campaign
What if Iowa Settles Nothing for Democrats?
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
DES MOINES — Iowa is packed with presidential candidates and hundreds of campaign aides, advisers and contributors. Twenty-five hundred representatives of news organizations have been granted credentials to cover the caucuses on Thursday night, twice as many as in 2004. Rarely has a political event been so intensely anticipated as a decisive moment, at least on the Democratic side. (It is different for Republicans since many of their major candidates are not competing fully here).

But what if it is not decisive?

What if at the end of Thursday, the three leading Democrats — John Edwards, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and Senator Barack Obama — are separated by a percentage point, or even less, leaving no one with the clear right of delivering a victory speech, or the burden of conceding? A number of polls going into the finals days that of have suggested that after all of this, the Democratic caucus on Thursday night will end up more or less as a tie.

In truth, amid all the endless permutations of possible outcomes that are being discussed — can Mrs. Clinton survive a third -place finish, or Mr. Edwards a second-place one? — aides are beginning to grapple with the frustrating possibility that all the time, money, and political skill invested here might prove to be for naught when it comes to identifying the candidate to beat in the primaries and winnowing down the top tier.

Rather than clarify the state of play and consolidate this crowded field a bit, an outcome like that would almost certainly muddle it further and potentially extend the time before Democrats know their nominee.

Since none of them would be judged a decisive loser, Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Edwards and Mr. Obama would all be able to go on to New Hampshire, no questions asked. It would be hard for any candidate to play the “I beat expectations gameâ€