Thread: DeMint tries out role of kingmaker for GOP candidates

DeMint tries out role of kingmaker for GOP candidates
heraldonline.com
By James Rosen - McClatchy Newspapers
Sep. 03, 2011 11:04 PM

WASHINGTON U.S. --

Sen. Jim DeMint, dubbed Sen. Tea Party for his avid following among GOP activists, is trying to parlay his success in getting conservatives elected to Congress into the role of presidential kingmaker.

It doesn't hurt that South Carolina will host the Republicans' first-in-the-South presidential primary early next year. Nor that DeMint, 59, in an extraordinary show of fundraising clout for a then-first term senator, collected millions from GOP activists across the country and then used the money last year to help elect a new generation of outsider conservatives to Washington.

In an unusual Labor Day forum in Columbia, DeMint will quiz six Republican White House aspirants Monday on their commitment to slashing government spending, diminishing Washington's place in Americans' lives and fighting for a constitutional amendment to require a balanced federal budget.

"This is not a bachelor forum," DeMint said. "It's a forum that will allow them to move beyond talking points and let the people of South Carolina know what they really believe."

It is a sign of DeMint's influence as conservative South Carolina's most powerful Republican that the GOP presidential race's top candidates - according to nationwide polls - agreed to spend the holiday with him.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia and former Godfather's Pizza chief executive Herman Cain of Georgia will follow one another onto the stage for exchanges with DeMint and two other questioners that will be broadcast live statewide on ETV.

"Their underlying philosophy has got to reflect constitutional limited government," DeMint said. "I'm looking for policies that will reflect a devolution of power out of Washington - not just cutting spending, but changing the federal government to a more limited role that can apply to education, energy, health care and other areas."

The prize will be DeMint's endorsement in a S.C. presidential primary that has chosen the eventual GOP nominee in every contested GOP race going back to Ronald Reagan's upset win in 1980.

"I have no doubt that if the senator decides to endorse a presidential candidate before the primary, it will have a tremendous impact on Republicans in our state," said GOP national committeeman Glenn McCall, who heads the York County Republican Party.

But not everyone is happy with DeMint's forum.

State Sen. John Courson, a Columbia Republican who has endorsed Jon Huntsman for president, protested when DeMint didn't invite the former Utah governor to his forum. Also left off the dance card was former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

"It's better to be inclusive," Courson said. "This early, particularly with all the fluidity, we should hear from all of them."

DeMint invited only those candidates averaging at least 5 percent support in recent nationwide polls, a level that Huntsman and Santorum haven't reached.

A former marketing firm owner, the Greenville Republican is skilled at branding his political stances, calling immigration reform "amnesty" and vowing to make President Barack Obama's health care plan the administration's "Waterloo."

But Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta, said the value of DeMint's S.C. endorsement might be diminished because Perry has emerged as the favorite to win the state's primary, possibly making its outcome a foregone conclusion.

"As a Southerner and a conservative, Perry strikes me as the sort of candidate who would do very well in South Carolina," Abramowitz said. "We'll see how well he wears, he's only been in the race for a couple weeks, but unless he self-destructs he should be a strong favorite there."

A S.C. survey completed Aug. 28, two weeks after Perry entered the GOP presidential contest, by Public Policy Polling showed Perry well ahead of the pack with 36 percent support, followed by Romney at 16 percent and Bachmann at 13 percent. The Raleigh, N.C.-based firm is a Democratic polling outfit, but it accurately predicted Gov. Nikki Haley's victory in South Carolina's June 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary and has performed well in other Republican races.

A rolling average of national polls, maintained by realclearpolitics.com, had Perry first at 24.2 percent, Romney second at 17 percent, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin - who hasn't formally entered the contest - third at 10.6 percent and Bachman fourth at 9.3 percent.

It was no accident that Perry chose Charleston to launch his national campaign Aug. 13. Former state GOP chairman Katon Dawson, who is managing Perry's S.C. operation, said he never has seen more early enthusiasm for a candidate than he saw when the Texan toured the state for two days after his entry.

"The governor creates a passion among voters, and he speaks their language," Dawson said.

Can DeMint sway votes?

Richard Quinn, a veteran Republican operative running Huntsman's S.C. campaign, provided a cautionary tale from history to warn against reading too much into an early favorite's momentum.

In 1980, another Texan, former Gov. John Connally, secured the early endorsement of U.S. Sen. Strom Thurmond, even more popular then among S.C. Republicans than DeMint is today. Connally was expected to win the state's GOP presidential primary, but Reagan bested the Texan on his way to winning the national nomination and the White House.

"Thurmond was arguably the most popular Republican in state history, but he was not able to carry South Carolina for John Connally," Quinn said. "Senator DeMint is very popular among Republicans in South Carolina, and his endorsement will have an impact, but I don't think it will be conclusive."

A more recent historical example features DeMint. He was national co-chairman of Romney's 2008 presidential bid, making TV ads and traveling the state with him - to no avail, as Romney finished fourth in the S.C. GOP primary.

Asked why he isn't backing Romney this time, DeMint responded: "I'm just taking a fresh look at all the candidates. It's a different field and a very different time. I want to evaluate all the candidates."

DeMint downplays the significance of his endorsement.

"I don't think anyone is going to say, 'I'm going to do exactly what Jim DeMint tells me to do,' and I don't want anyone to say that," he said.

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Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia and former Godfather's Pizza chief executive Herman Cain of Georgia will follow one another onto the stage for exchanges with DeMint and two other questioners that will be broadcast live statewide on ETV.

"My man Herman is still in the game!"

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