Thread: McCain Gains as Furor Over Immigration Cools

CAPITAL JOURNAL
By GERALD SEIB
Wall Street Journal

McCain Gains as Furor Over Immigration Cools
January 29, 2008; Page A2

Six months ago, when Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign was left for dead at the side of the road to the White House, he seemed to have perished because he was in the wrong place on two important issues: Iraq and immigration.

Today, as Republican voters go to the polls in Florida to determine whether Sen. McCain has become the clear favorite to win the Republican nomination, it is worth considering how things have turned around. On Iraq, the about-face is easy to explain: Things got better on the ground there, and Sen. McCain's support for the war and a new strategy for fighting it now looks more like wisdom than stubbornness.

But what about immigration? There, the answer is more subtle. In fact, immigration is a case study in how changing circumstances can alter the way a hot issue plays in a campaign. Sen. McCain was in trouble because his support for immigration reform, including a guest-worker program and a pathway to legal status for illegal immigrants, appeared out of step with a Republican base that had turned hostile to the immigration overhaul.

Now a combination of factors -- the disappearance of the issue from Washington's legislative agenda; Sen. McCain's own quiet shift in posture; the rise of other concerns -- have helped damp the fires of anger on immigration. Today's vote will show how those forces have worked in Hispanic-heavy Florida, and Sen. McCain's foes may yet choose to turn up the heat on the immigration debate as they try to overtake him. But for now it appears that immigration, while a burning question for some Republicans, isn't the top issue for most of them. (See article on the Democratic bid for Florida's Hispanics).

Immigration erupted as a problem for Sen. McCain last spring, when Congress began debating -- for the third time -- a comprehensive plan urged by President Bush. It would have combined new border-security measures with steps to bring immigrant workers out of the shadows.

The legislation included both a guest-worker program and a plan to allow those working in the U.S. illegally to register, pay a fine and become legally documented workers. The idea was to get more control over the more than 10 million illegal immigrants already here, and to lessen the pressure for more illegal immigration.

Sen. McCain, from the border state of Arizona, supported the legislation. But to a vocal group of critics within his party, it amounted to giving "amnesty" to those in the U.S. illegally. At a Republican debate the first week of June, Sen. McCain was pilloried by his foes for backing the bill.

Sen. McCain's candidacy got a reprieve on June 7, when the legislation collapsed on the Senate floor and died for the year. That meant Washington stopped forcing the issue into the spotlight. "Every time you bring it up, it's just like throwing gasoline on the fire," says Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, a McCain supporter who found that support for immigration reform was one of the factors that undercut his own presidential bid. "By the third time we brought it up, people were flaming mad. Now it's not being brought up and nothing happened."

The death of the bill also allowed Sen. McCain to subtly alter his position without actually reversing it. Now when asked about immigration, he replies with a border-security-first formulation, as he did Sunday on NBC TV's "Meet the Press." The lesson he drew from the debate last year, he said, is that Americans "want the border secured first, and I would do that." Only then, he added, would he move on to other reforms.

Immigration still could be a land mine on Sen. McCain's route to the White House, of course. It remains a potential problem for him in some key states, especially California.

It's also clear, though, that if Sen. McCain can survive those tests and win the nomination, his more nuanced position on immigration would be an asset, rather than a liability, in a general election. That's when Republicans will desperately need to win back some Hispanic voters turned off by the tenor of the immigration debate.

The other McCain advantage is the emerging evidence that immigration isn't quite the leading issue it once seemed. In the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, illegal immigration ranked fourth among issues cited by voters overall, and third among Republicans, behind the economy and terrorism. "There are people who talk about it and are angry about it, but when you get down to it, it's not the No. 1 for very many voters," says Frank Donatelli, a longtime Republican activist and a McCain backer.

The lingering problem for Sen. McCain is California, where anything resembling a soft-on-immigration image could be a problem with Republicans who vote in the state's Feb. 5 Super Tuesday primary. "The issue of illegal immigration is of great concern to California, and has been historically," says Bill Jones, chairman of the McCain campaign in California. Thus, he stresses the new McCain formulation: "The senator's position is: Secure the border first."

More intriguing is the possibility that Sen. McCain's profile on immigration might become an asset if he wins the nomination. Here are the statistics that should concern Republicans: More than 18 million Hispanics are eligible to vote in the U.S., and a survey by the Pew Hispanic Center late last year showed them leaning Democratic by a 57%-to-23% margin. The Republican goal this year, says Kenneth Duberstein, former White House chief of staff under President Reagan, ought to be to build a new "Reagan coalition" that broadens the party beyond its traditional base to just such groups as Hispanics. Could John McCain's record of being more open on immigration help there?

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB ... in_tff_top

John McCain appears to be a democrat so should work.

I'm sure everyone at ALIPAC sees what is going on here. Illegal immigration is off the ELITES and the MSM agenda so they constantly barrage THEIR position via their propaganda spin machines to the public in hope of convincing them that:
1.) illegal immigration is of inconsequental issue to the American people; or
2.) if you are concerned with illegal immigration you shouldn't be because no one else thinks it is imporatnt.

The Elite Propaganda Beasties are hard at work, arent' they?

Originally Posted by oldguy

John McCain appears to be a democrat so should work.

I'm from Maine and we vote in my town on Saturday. I can't wait to see how well Ron Paul does here. If McCain is even close I will go to bed and cover my head until the blood stops shooting out my eye sockets!!!

I think Independents should be able to vote in whatever caucus they want to without changing parties first. Then going back to Indepoendent.... Geez

Here's a link to his visit here yesterday

http://www.sunjournal.com:80/index.php? ... yid=249456

Hopefully the illegals will march in the streets again this spring -this would remind people of the disregard for our laws and thet demand something.Sadly,americans have short memories.911 seems forgotten,when the news report illegal aliens committing a crime in the newspaper they call him""greensboro man '' or ''chicago woman" what ever time town they are squating in at the time.The media and elected officials and of course the snot filled, chicken livered,yellow bellied toilet scum who hire them.

Even on Democrat or liberal blogs I am still seeing such an outcry against illegal immigrants that I am given a lot of hope. The state of the US economy always makes for sensational news, and these times are very uncertain. That is why immigration has reverted to a secondary issue. Also, the housing crisis is taking up a lot of the time of people affected, leaving them less time to concentrate on immigration issues.

So, even if pro amnesty politicians end up winning there will be a number of ways to successfully fight this issue. Don't give up! There may be an amnesty for immigration violations, but this does not apply to other crimes. You will just need to do some deeper research. And IF pro amnesty politicians win even THEY say they will complete border security. That, at least is half the battle. Keep thinking positive.

But I do have a question. My posts on agricultural issues get practically no response. Aren't you people interested? Agricultural demand for workers has been the open barn door through which the horse was stolen. I think this business has a powerful lobby in Congress to keep demanding illegal workers. They don't need 'em. There are plenty of machines that can replace the majority of farm workers. There are agricultural fairs showcasing these devices. Just need to get the word to the farmers!

Don't you folks care about that?

Captain Iron:
Where 'Ya been?

ALIPAC fought long and hard over several attempts to insert AgJobs into several bills over the last couple years. And when the word was out that AgJobs would be attempted to be inserted into the recent Farm Bill we launched a major campaign to fight it just after we defeated the DREAM Act. Most all of ALIPAC members are against any path to citizenship for foreign Agricultural workers. We look at the program as a temporary program that can be utilized by farmers LEGALLY only of they prove the need that they need these type workers. The H-2A visa program has been long abused and we want it tightened up. We are not in favor of expanding it.

Again, where 'ya been?

DHolmes is right. I cannot believe the attention span and memory of so many Americans is equivilant to that of a third grader.

What is going on? These same people will help John McCain get elected and then complain when he offers some 25-30 million illegals amnesty and vow to make a better decision next time around. When that times comes they make the same mistakes all over again.

America, voting is not a spectator sport. You have to educate yourselves and understand where these candidates stand on those issue affecting this country.

People say they are outraged about illegal immigration, but in the privacy of the voting booth, something else is clearly happening. Six months ago, John Mccain was essentially finished because of his position on illegal immigration. Now he's winning primaries.

Perhaps I place too much faith in my fellow Americans( does not include ALIPAC members). Maybe Americans are too apathetic and pampered to even care if thier country is taken away from them. perhaps American Idol and Britany Spears are more important to them. I do not know. I cannot explain it.

I know that ALIPAC fought against the AgJobs Bill. I don't mean to knock those who did. But farmers are going to keep whining to Congress that they need the labor---which isn't true. And we should not have to do their job--scouting out techniological advances--for them! But may have to.

And plenty of other industries are whining to Congress that they need the cheap, even illegal, laborers, too. And a lot of those are industries that we really don't need, either.

That is why I have been posting links to Agricultural Expositions that will showcase the latest developments in the industry. I know that there are ALIPAC readers living in the vicinity. If they can they should make themselves aware of what innovations have taken--or are taking-- place in this industry that will curtail the need for cross border labor forces. Then, we would have better arguments against this "demand". One of the arguments from our State's US Senators (an OBL supporter) is that the state's farmers complain they cannot get enough help "at any price," (according to him).

There is one for the Pacific Northwest starting today:
http://www.nwagshow.com/schedule.php

There is one for Central California, the world's biggest, Feb 12-14:
http://www.worldagexpo.com/

There will be one in Georgia in October:
http://www.sunbeltexpo.com/

There will be one in New Mexico, Feb 26-27:
http://southwestfarmpress.com/mag/farmi ... epare_new/

Of course this information is available on the web for those who could not make a trip to one of these expos. One could probably get a lot more info in person.

People are concerned about the economy, but if the open borders WSJ and Weekly Standard etc. think that illegal immigration is still not a burning issue at the top of voter's minds, they are sadly mistaken.

And don't forget that McCain has been able to rise somewhat since the summer because he has tried to hide and twist his pro-amnesty stance and record, while paying lip service to border security. If McCain came out right now and pushed his McCain/Kennedy amnesty bill again, his numbers would sink dramatically again.