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July 28, 2007, 10:45PM
Migrant arrests dip, but many questioning why
Administration says it's deterrence efforts, but others say it's an economic slip


By ARTHUR H. ROTSTEIN
Associated Press

TUCSON, Ariz. — President Bush and the Border Patrol have been citing dramatic declines in illegal immigrant apprehensions this year as evidence that their deterrence efforts are paying off by discouraging crossing attempts.

The Border Patrol, which has been helped for the past 12 months by large numbers of National Guardsmen taking on support roles and added agents and technology, has reported a 24 percent dip in apprehensions along the Mexican border from Oct. 1 through June compared to the same period a year earlier.

But a number of people who observe border developments and migration flows dispute the reasons the agency is giving for that, or say that any deterrence from added enforcement is but one factor among several possible reasons for a decline.

Some contend that more immigrants are staying home because the U.S. economy has soured; others say there's been no reduction in the flow of first-time migrants or that there's no way to know how many people slip across undetected. Even a top Border Patrol spokesman says political, social and economic factors are part of the mix.

"People can read lots of different things into apprehension data," said David Martin, a University of Virginia law school professor and one-time counsel for the old U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service. "Sometimes increases are claimed as successes, and sometimes decreases are claimed as successes."

Take the president. In an April visit to Yuma, Ariz., he noted, "The number of people apprehended for illegally crossing our southern border were down nearly 30 percent. We're making progress."

But 17 months earlier, Bush cited a 42 percent increase in Border Patrol apprehensions over the previous year as "one of the best examples of success."

The agency feels the latest apprehension data indicate a decrease in crossing attempts, said Michael Friel, a Border Patrol spokesman in Washington.

According to agency figures, apprehensions in Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and California reached 682,000 from Oct. 1 through June 30, down from some 894,000 for the same period in the 2006 fiscal year.

Apprehension figures for the comparable period in the two fiscal years prior to that were nearly 874,000 and 886,000, respectively.

Friel pointed to many changes, including the addition of the National Guard last year and new barriers and fencing as reasons for the decline, but he also acknowledged that social and economic factors play a role in border security.

Dawn McLaren, a research economist at Arizona State University, is among those who said she doesn't buy into the deterrence argument. "Why would that make any sense?" she said.

She insists that a slowdown in the U.S. economy is the key. McLaren pointed to gross domestic product growth of only 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2007, versus 5.6 percent for the same period last year.

Immigrants on the Southwest border are drawn by and react specifically to the economy, she said. "So if the economy is a magnet and our magnet loses strength, we see fewer people crossing the border."

If there were more agents, McLaren added, "wouldn't the number of arrests stay the same or rise, because there are more agents? That's why I think the (migrant) pool has gone down. People are just staying home."

Wayne Cornelius, director for comparative immigration studies at the University of California-San Diego, said via e-mail that a slump in residential construction employment partly accounts for the deflated numbers but that many other construction jobs remain, along with work in other sectors.

For him, a key factor is what he called "reduced circularity," with fewer Mexican migrants returning home seasonally due to the cost and danger involved in coming back.

"If migrants aren't going home, they aren't getting caught when they return to their jobs in the U.S.," he said. "Fewer apprehensions don't equal true deterrence and Border Patrol efficacy."

Cornelius also said there is no evidence that the northbound flow of first-time migrants to the U.S. has diminished. He said that only about a third are caught on their first try and that most try again until they succeed.

Martin, the Virginia law professor, said that if the declines really represent a reduction in the number of attempted crossings, "that's the true measure of success." But he said he doesn't know how to determine that.

Enough patrol agents and Guardsmen have been deployed in different places that this may be the real thing, and at some point those thinking about migrating would say now is not the time for that, he said.

Martin said a change in enforcement strategy tends to cause an initial drop in illegal immigration, but the real test is whether it lasts.

"Circularity has been reduced. But I don't think that explains the full decline. And similarly with the economy," he said. "Migration patterns do tend to rise and fall with economic activity."

He said that if the economic draw is sufficient, the enforcement impact is going to be limited. "It will still mean that some people will take the risk — people at the margins."

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/nation/5008887.html