Thread: 2008: The Year of the Latino (Bull!)

2008: The Year of the Latino
By Eric L. Hinton. Date Posted: February 28, 2008

You've heard it since the very start of the presidential primary process. After being barely an afterthought in previous presidential campaigns, 2008 would be different. Yes, political pundits and Latino advocacy organizations were emphatic that 2008 would be the year of the Latino. But has that come to fruition?

First, it's important to understand the why. For starters, the Latino community is the nation's largest and fastest growing ethnic group, making up approximately 15 percent of the U.S. population. In 2008 Latinos will comprise about 9 percent of the nation's eligible voters, according to a recent study by The Pew Hispanic Center. But beyond that, Latinos will emerge as a critically important swing vote in this year's election thanks in large part to that subject you ignored in high school…geography.

"Hispanics loom as a potential swing vote in the presidential race because they are strategically located on the 2008 Electoral College map. Hispanics constitute a sizeable share of the electorate in four of the six states that President Bush carried by margins of five percentage points or fewer," states the Pew study. Those states, New Mexico (where Latinos compriase 37 percent of the electorate; Florida (14 percent) Nevada (12 percent) and Colorado (12 percent) are expected to be closely contested once again in the 2008 general election.

The fact that Latino could wind up having a large say deciding the presidency has not been lost on Latino advocacy groups across the country, says Alma Morales Riojas, president and CEO of the Washington, D.C.-based MANA, a national Latina organization. Riojas has watched the primary process play out with great interest and has monitored closely how both Democratic and Republican candidates addressed issues of concern to the Latino community.

"Regardless or origin…whether they are Puerto Rican, Cuban, Mexicano or Salvadorian everyone is looking at how the candidates are speaking about immigration. Do they even speak about it or is it only when they're forced to do it," says Riojas. "Education continues to be the most important priority for us along with the economy."

And just where do Latino loyalties lie? A major point of navel-gazing for the mainstream press during the primary battles between Sens Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton was the contention that conflicts between Latinos and Blacks would steer Latinos away from Obama. It's a claim, William Ramos, director of the Washington D.C. office of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), flatly rejects. NALEO facilitates Latino participation in the American political process from citizenship to public service.

"It's an insult to say that Latinos will not vote for an African American. We've proven that we will cross party lines and vote for a white, Black or Asian person. We will even vote against a Latino if that Latino is not meeting our expectations," says Ramos.

Ramos points to the support Latinos have historically given to Black candidates, such as Mayors David Dinkins in New York, Harold Washington in Chicago and Tom Bradley in Los Angeles. "All along the Latinos have supported Black candidates across the country. So in a snapshot to say that Latinos won't support Black candidates is not entirely correct."

So why was there an early disconnect between the Obama campaign and the Latino community?

"Latinos voted for Clinton because they've known her for a long time. The Clinton president years, those were good years for the Latino community, so there's loyalty and history there," says Ramos. "But the longer the race goes on and more of the community sees and hears Sen. Obama they are becoming inclined to vote for him. Given an opportunity to listen to the person's agenda and how they will address issues that effect the community, then Latinos will vote for that candidate."

The Obama camp agreed. The campaign ran commercials in heavy rotation on Spanish-language channel Univision for Latino audiences leading up to his California showdown with Clinton. Obama ultimately lost California and the majority of Latino voters to Clinton. But the effort didn't go unnoticed.

"If you come to the Latino community with a solid plan, we will listen to you," says Ramos, who's conducted polling on what issues are important to Latinos and found that education, the economy, home ownership, jobs and the war in Iraq remain the prevalent issues in the Latino community. "We have the same concerns that are important to general society, but there are nuanced differences.".

Obama already has a strong contingent of Latino officials stumping for him in California, including Maria Elena Duranzo, secretary treasurer of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labour, and Denver mayor Federico Pena, who is also a former cabinet member of President Bill Clinton's administration.

David Bositis, a senior research associate at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, said Clinton's Latino support played a large part for keeping her bid afloat early in the campaign.

"They've played a significant role. If they hadn't given Hillary as much support as they did on Super Tuesday its doubtful she would even still be in the race," says Bositis. " Now in terms of what ultimately happens, Latinos are not homogenous as a group. They come from different countries, cultures and different racial background."

Bositis believes Republican nominee John McCain represented the Republicans' best option at pulling Latino votes, but believes even he will have an uphill climb against the Democratic nominee.

"I have a feeling the Republicans are really damaged brand with Latinos. All of the candidates except McCain sounded like Lou Dobbs. Even with McCain as the Republican candidate there are a lot of Latino that don't like the war. I think in the general election (the democratic nominee) will do very well with Latinos."

The Pew study would back up that assessment. According to the study, 44 percent of Latinos said the Democratic Party was more concerned with issues in their community compared to 8 percent for the Republican Party. Also, 41 percent of Latino registered voters said the policies of the Bush administration had been harmful to Latinos while just 16 percent said they had been helpful.

But not so fast, warns Riojas. The Democratic Party takes the Latino vote for granted at its own peril.

"That's a mistake the Democratic Party has made in the last two presidential elections … assuming they have the Latino vote wrapped up," says Riojas, "It's going to come down to who best serves the interest and the growth and well-being of the Latino community. Assume nothing. I think the Democratic Party should know they did that the last couple of elections. Even though Bill Clinton said his election was due to the Latino vote… but they did not play that out in the elections since," she says. "That loyalty was assumed and you can not assume."

Regardless of how the general election shakes out, Ramos is excited to see the level of political engagement with Latinos across the country. It's been a long time coming, he says.

"The cry a couple of year ago was 'Today we march. Tomorrow we vote.' Well tomorrow is here," he says.

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