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New faces, same debate on ‘amnesty’
Despite Democrats’ control of Congress, immigration reform is far from being a sure thing.
By RICK MONTGOMERY and SCOTT CANON
The Kansas City Star
On election night, Tom Tancredo thought “it’s all over with.” The fight, that is, to rid America of millions of illegal immigrants.

The Colorado congressman who staked his career on getting tough with border crossers saw some of his staunchest GOP allies, including U.S. Rep. Jim Ryun of Kansas, bounced at the polls. Tancredo won another term, but the Democrats took Congress, and he assumed “amnesty,” as hard-liners label it, was just around the bend for the undocumented.

Even President Bush spoke the next day of seeking “some common ground with Democrats” on at least one of his priorities — granting guest-worker status and a path to citizenship to immigrants now confined to the shadows.

But Tancredo had not read the Web site of Ryun’s Democratic rival, Nancy Boyda:

“Crack Down on Illegal Immigration — When American corporations knowingly or negligently hire illegal workers, they lure immigrants into America, weaken our borders, and create unfair wage competition for American workers. This is unacceptable.”

Last spring’s boiling debate is far, far from settled.

“On further reflection,” says Tancredo, “I’ve the distinct impression … there’s no enthusiasm at all for a guest-worker or amnesty plan.”
Some groups were hoping Washington might finally accommodate the 12 million illegal immigrants who help keep the economy ticking. Speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi of California signaled her party’s reluctance by leaving the issue off her short to-do list in the first 100 hours of a Democratic Capitol Hill.

“It’s going to be a toss-up whether we get anything done” before the 2008 presidential election, said Jeanne Butterfield, executive director of the American Immigration Lawyers Association. “And doing nothing is bad. … More of the same is untenable.”

At the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors restrictions, Steven Camarota saw little in vote results to wave a broader welcome to foreigners. Of the more than 100 members of the so-called immigration reform caucus formed by Tancredo, 95 percent got returned by voters.

Democratic gains won’t necessarily translate to sympathy for undocumented workers, their workers or their employers — not when newcomers such as Heath Shuler of North Carolina and Brad Ellsworth of Indiana voiced clear support for GOP bills for stiffer penalties and bigger fences.

“They can’t vote for amnesty,” Camarota said. “Any of these Democrats who were just elected are going to be saying to themselves, ‘I just won in a Republican-ish district. This isn’t going to be popular.’ ”

No easy fix

In Kansas’ 2nd District, “they don’t want something that even looks like amnesty,” said Boyda, who said she would oppose a guest-worker program as outlined in the so-called “McCain-Kennedy” Senate bill, rejected by the House GOP.

Her district stretches from southeast Kansas through Topeka and Manhattan. “We’re the recipients of the short end” of a cheap-labor economy that presses down on wages of U.S. citizens, she said. “We don’t have large packing plants or fields picked by hand.

“… This is not going to be easy to fix. We’ve been backed into a corner on all of these tough issues: Iraq, immigration, health care. … They (Democratic leaders) are sending me a clear message to reflect my district.”

If many eastern Kansans don’t share visions of expanding temporary-work permits and letting immigrants now in the country to apply for U.S. citizenship, the idea has appeal elsewhere in the country.

A Gallup poll in May, taken in the wake of mass protests by Latino Americans objecting to the House’s proposed raft of new restrictions and enforcement measures, showed 63 percent of Americans somewhat or very sympathetic toward illegal immigrants.

A similar majority said the undocumented workers should remain and become citizens if they meet certain requirements over a period of time.

The blocked Senate bill put up by Democrat Edward Kennedy and Republican John McCain would offer citizenship if illegal workers paid back taxes and a $2,000 penalty for breaking the law, studied English and civics, cleared background checks and worked six years without legal problems.

Opponents called it “amnesty.”

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said the GOP this year was trying “to find hot buttons” to put Democrats on the defensive.

“I’m surprised some people don’t call it gay marriage, too,” she said.

Yet by the time elections rolled around, the issue had slipped out of focus as Iraq and congressional corruption carried the day for Democrats. Still, when Gallup last month asked U.S. adults about “top priorities for the president and Congress to deal with,” they ranked immigration third, behind Iraq and the economy.

“I don’t think we did ourselves any favors when we engaged the public in a major topic and didn’t pass the legislation to deal with it,” said Sen. Sam Brownback, a Kansas Republican who backed the Kennedy-McCain plan.

Double-edged sword

The voters swung a double-edged sword, as some put it, showing the public’s split.

Arizonans, for example, strongly approved ballot initiatives to deny bail to illegal immigrants, curtail education subsidies for them and make English the state’s official language. At the same time, they booted several GOP candidates who called for sealing borders and stiffening enforcement.

Instead of being a top-tier issue for Republicans, immigration “turned out to be a second-tier issue that turned out Latinos,” said Frank Sharry, the executive director of the National Immigration Forum.

Exit polling indicated that barely a fourth of Hispanics voted for Republicans. Bush pulled more than 40 percent two years ago.

The Democrats could “reap a windfall with Latino voters going into 2008,” said Andrea LaRue, immigrant-rights lobbyist.

If the 2006 vote offered no clear mandate on immigration, as LaRue and Sharry agree, it did recalibrate the odds for reform by flipping party control of Congress. Then again, any new measures will require crossover alliances: big-business Republicans joining social-justice Democrats for more-relaxed immigration standards; culturally conservative Republicans and Democratic labor unions teaming up for stricter enforcement.

Almost all agree that the first year of the new Congress offers the best window — if lawmakers tackle the issue at all.

Even then, passing McCain-Kennedy would send millions flooding into immigration offices for citizenship in 2008, said Camarota, at the Immigration Studies Center.

“Do the Democrats want that in a presidential election year? I don’t think so.”
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To reach Scott Canon, call (816) 234-4754 or send e-mail to scanon@kcstar.com. To reach Rick Montgomery, call (816) 234-4410 or send e-mail to rmontgomery@kcstar.com.