New Hampshire exit polls explain surprises, suggest new tack for candidates
17 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Change may have been the hot, trendy issue of the New Hampshire primary, but good old experience largely revived Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, according to voter interviews that help explain what happened Tuesday - and hint at what may lie ahead.

On the Republican side, the data suggest New Hampshire winner John McCain needs to keep voters' minds off illegal immigration and firmly fixed on national security, the economy and leadership.

Clinton's victory over Senator Barack Obama was Tuesday's shocker. It is forcing strategists to revisit the change vs. experience dynamic that has dominated the Democratic debate thus far.

Exit polls of Democratic voters found that a majority thought the most important question in choosing a candidate was who "can bring about needed change." Obama, 46, who has spent three years in Washington, out-polled Clinton by nearly 2-1 in that important group.

But Clinton, 60, who was first lady for eight years before joining the Senate in 2001, more than offset that deficit in a way pollsters did not foresee. She won overwhelming margins - about 14-1 over both Obama and third-place finisher John Edwards - among the smaller group of voters who rated experience as the most vital qualification.

Obama immediately signalled plans to put more emphasis on his experience, including two terms in the Illinois state Senate.

"I think there's no doubt that we have to make sure that I'm making an argument about the kind of experience I bring to this race," he said Wednesday on NBC's "Today." "Maybe voters in New Hampshire were not as familiar with my track record on issues like nuclear proliferation or renewable energy."

Also vital to Clinton's recovery was the turnaround in women's votes.

Obama won more female votes in Iowa, where Clinton finished third in the caucus last week. But women proved crucial to Clinton's New Hampshire win, voting in heavier numbers than men, and giving 46 per cent of their vote to Clinton, compared to 34 per cent for Obama and 15 per cent for Edwards.

Pundits and politicians spent hours Wednesday speculating on the reason. Two favourites emerged: New Hampshire women recoiled at the way Obama and Edwards treated Clinton at Saturday's televised debate from Manchester. And Clinton's emotional moment in a Portsmouth diner on Monday humanized her and even endeared her to many.

The diner moment - when Clinton's voice broke as she talked about what kept her going - "was very important," Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein of California said Wednesday during a conference call with Clinton supporters. "I think it showed the kind of humanity and real warmth. This was Hillary at her core."

Some question whether the incident, coming less than 24 hours before the polls opened, came in time to sway many undecided voters. But the debate took place earlier, and some women cited two moments that made Clinton particularly sympathetic.

Obama's comment, "You're likable enough, Hillary," during a discussion of Clinton's popularity, struck some as condescending. And when Edwards jumped to Obama's defence during a discussion of who can best bring change, some felt the two were ganging up on Clinton.

"The debate was critical," Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said during the conference call.

In the Republican contest, the exit polls suggest McCain's rivals may try to highlight illegal immigration in hopes of slowing his resurgence. The Arizona senator championed a bill last year that would have created a pathway to legal status for most illegal immigrants.

Half of New Hampshire's Republican voters said illegal immigrants should be promptly deported, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was their favourite. Luckily for McCain, however, fewer than one in four Republicans said immigration was the nation's most pressing problem, compared with one-third of Iowa Republicans who caucused last week.

New Hampshire Republicans said the economy was the nation's most pressing issue, with the war in Iraq barely edging illegal immigration for second place. McCain, 71, fared well among those preoccupied by the economy and the war.

Four in five New Hampshire Republicans are worried about the economy, and they preferred McCain over Romney (with Huckabee and Representative Ron Paul of Texas, tied for a distant third).

Nearly two-thirds of the Granite State's Republican voters approve of the war in Iraq, and that group gave slightly more votes to Romney than to McCain. But McCain more than made up the deficit by winning big margins from the one-third of Republican voters who disapprove of the war.

And McCain easily outdistanced Romney on the questions of who is the best leader and the best qualified to be commander in chief.

Nearly one in three Republican voters, meanwhile, said Romney ran "the most unfair campaign," compared to 12 per cent for Huckabee and nine per cent for McCain.

Campaign consultants in both parties will scrutinize the exit polls for days, but their usefulness in predicting the future is limited.

Obama, whose Iowa momentum quickly cooled in snowy New Hampshire, said Wednesday: "Anyone who thinks they know how voters are going to respond at this point are probably misleading themselves."

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