Thread: Obama's Poll Numbers Are Falling to Earth

Obama's Poll Numbers Are Falling to Earth

By DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN and SCOTT RASMUSSEN

It is simply wrong for commentators to continue to focus on President Barack Obama's high levels of popularity, and to conclude that these are indicative of high levels of public confidence in the work of his administration. Indeed, a detailed look at recent survey data shows that the opposite is most likely true. The American people are coming to express increasingly significant doubts about his initiatives, and most likely support a different agenda and different policies from those that the Obama administration has advanced.

Polling data show that Mr. Obama's approval rating is dropping and is below where George W. Bush was in an analogous period in 2001. Rasmussen Reports data shows that Mr. Obama's net presidential approval rating -- which is calculated by subtracting the number who strongly disapprove from the number who strongly approve -- is just six, his lowest rating to date.
[Obama's Poll Numbers Are Falling to Earth] M.E. Cohen

Overall, Rasmussen Reports shows a 56%-43% approval, with a third strongly disapproving of the president's performance. This is a substantial degree of polarization so early in the administration. Mr. Obama has lost virtually all of his Republican support and a good part of his Independent support, and the trend is decidedly negative.

A detailed examination of presidential popularity after 50 days on the job similarly demonstrates a substantial drop in presidential approval relative to other elected presidents in the 20th and 21st centuries. The reason for this decline most likely has to do with doubts about the administration's policies and their impact on peoples' lives.

There is also a clear sense in the polling that taxes will increase for all Americans because of the stimulus, notwithstanding what the president has said about taxes going down for 95% of Americans. Close to three-quarters expect that government spending will grow under this administration.

Recent Gallup data echo these concerns. That polling shows that there are deep-seeded, underlying economic concerns. Eighty-three percent say they are worried that the steps Mr. Obama is taking to fix the economy may not work and the economy will get worse. Eighty-two percent say they are worried about the amount of money being added to the deficit. Seventy-eight percent are worried about inflation growing, and 69% say they are worried about the increasing role of the government in the U.S. economy.

When Gallup asked whether we should be spending more or less in the economic stimulus, by close to 3-to-1 margin voters said it is better to have spent less than to have spent more. When asked whether we are adding too much to the deficit or spending too little to improve the economy, by close to a 3-to-2 margin voters said that we are adding too much to the deficit.

Support for the stimulus package is dropping from narrow majority support to below that. There is no sense that the stimulus package itself will work quickly, and according to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, close to 60% said it would make only a marginal difference in the next two to four years. Rasmussen data shows that people now actually oppose Mr. Obama's budget, 46% to 41%. Three-quarters take this position because it will lead to too much spending. And by 2-to-1, voters reject House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's call for a second stimulus package.

While over two-thirds support the plan to help homeowners refinance their mortgage, a 48%-36% plurality said that it will unfairly benefit those who have been irresponsible, echoing Rick Santelli's call to arms on CNBC.

And although a narrow majority remains confident in Mr. Obama's goals and overall direction, 45% say they do not have confidence, a number that has been growing since the inauguration less than two months ago. With three-quarters saying that they expect the economy to get worse, it is hard to see these numbers improving substantially.

There is no real appetite for increasing taxes to pay for an expanded health-insurance program. Less than half would support such an idea, which is 17% less than the percentage that supported government health insurance when Bill Clinton first considered it in March of 1993.

While voters blame Republicans for the lack of bipartisanship in Washington, the fact is that they do not believe Mr. Obama has made any progress in improving the impulse towards cooperation between the two parties. Further, nearly half of voters say that politics in Washington will be more partisan over the next year.

Fifty-six percent of Americans oppose giving bankers any additional government money or any guarantees backed by the government. Two-thirds say Wall Street will benefit more than the average taxpayer from the new bank bailout plan. This represents a jump in opposition to the first plan passed last October. At that time, 45% opposed the bailout and 30% supported it. Now a solid majority opposes the bank bailout, and 20% think it was a good idea. A majority believes that Mr. Obama will not be able to cut the deficit in half by the end of his term.

Only less than a quarter of Americans believe that the federal government truly reflects the will of the people. Almost half disagree with the idea that no one can earn a living or live "an American life" without protection and empowerment by the government, while only one-third agree.

Despite the economic stimulus that Congress just passed and the budget and financial and mortgage bailouts that Congress is now debating, just 19% of voters believe that Congress has passed any significant legislation to improve their lives. While Congress's approval has increased, it still stands at only 18%. Over two-thirds of voters believe members of Congress are more interested in helping their own careers than in helping the American people. When it comes to the nation's economic issues, two-thirds of voters have more confidence in their own judgment than they do in the average member of Congress.

Finally, what probably accounts for a good measure of the confidence and support the Obama administration has enjoyed is the fact that they are not Republicans. Virtually all Americans, more than eight in 10, blame Republicans for the current economic woes, and the only two leaders with lower approval ratings than Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi are Republican leaders Mitch McConnell and John Boehner.

All of this is not just a subject for pollsters and analysts to debate. It shows fundamentally that public confidence in government remains low and is slipping. We face the possibility of substantial gridlock along with an absolute absence of public confidence that could come to mirror the lack of confidence in the American economy that the Dow and the S&P are currently showing.

Mr. Schoen, formerly a pollster for President Bill Clinton, is the author of "Declaring Independence: The Beginning of the End of the Two Party System" (Random House, 200. Mr. Rasmussen is president of Rasmussen Reports, an independent national polling company.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123690358175013837.html

Only less than a quarter of Americans believe that the federal government truly reflects the will of the people.

To me, this is the most important finding in these polls.

W

Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere, but I just read this in the NRO, related to above:

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National Review

March 12, 2009

Now Obama Tells Us?
What an honest campaign would have sounded like.

By Victor Davis Hanson

Imagine that last fall, before being elected, Barack Obama had outlined the positions he has embraced since being inaugurated. An honest campaign speech could have gone something like this:

“As we approach Election Day, the American people should not waste the crisis we find ourselves in.

“Consequently, if elected, I promise to get us over the Bush financial meltdown with a stimulus program that will borrow $787 billion — which, of course, will add to the already sizable budget deficit (nearly $500 billion) projected in the Bush administration’s last budget.

“By March of next year, my new $3.6 trillion budget will include a spending bill with over 8,500 budget earmarks to target in-need constituents.

“In addition to the stimulus/borrowing plan, I intend to devote $634 billion to fund a new supplementary national health-care system. But that is not all. Unfortunately, the initial Bush bank bailout of some $700 billion also may well have to be augmented by an additional $750 billion.

“Although my new spending proposals may raise the federal deficit in my first year to $1.75 trillion, I promise the American people that by the end of my first term, I will halve the federal deficit — albeit adding another $3 to $5 trillion to the national debt.

“Those savings can be accomplished by upping the federal income tax to about 40 percent on those rich 5 percent of Americans who currently pay only 60 percent of our aggregate income taxes — as well as lifting Social Security caps on their payroll taxes and cutting out many of their tax deductions.

“With state income taxes, federal income tax, and Social Security and payroll taxes, along with new cutbacks in deductions, some of these rich will pay over 60 percent of their incomes in taxes. That is not an unreasonable rate in comparison with past levels — or the fact that well over 40 percent of Americans do not make enough to pay any federal income taxes.

“I expect that Wall Street may react negatively to these proposals. We may see the Dow fall an additional 2,000 to 3,000 points after I’m elected. It may descend to under 7,000 during my first weeks of office. And this may be the moment when the economy continues to cool and unemployment rises.

“But to deal with this reaction of entrenched interests, I promise a fresh team of hard-nosed American professionals — understanding that it is impossible to ensure that none have past insider connections and occasional tax problems.

“From the former Clinton administration, I will select Rahm Emanuel to run my staff. To oversee revenue, Timothy Geithner will assemble a large team at Treasury. Senator Clinton herself will run State, and I will anchor my cabinet with pros like Tom Daschle, Eric Holder, Bill Richardson, and Hilda Solis.

“On matters of protecting civil liberties, I assure the American people that I have examined the Patriot Act, the FISA accords, and renditions — and I have discovered that they, in fact, do not shred our Constitution. I will, however, shut down Guantanamo Bay — but must keep it open another year and appoint a task force to study the issue.

“Our new direction in energy policy will center on cap-and-trade initiatives that promote wind and solar power. While we won’t rule out oil, gas, coal, and nuclear development, problems with greenhouse-gas emissions and nuclear waste mean that these ossified 20th-century industries — including new offshore-drilling development — must be discouraged and further taxed or regulated to subsidize our green future.

“Abroad, I promise to give America a new image. My first television interview will be with al Arabiya. Due to both new initiatives and my unique background, I can reassure them that no longer will the United States alienate the Muslim world. Our aim is to return to stable and friendly relations with the Middle East characteristic of 20-30 years ago.

“Indeed, on matters in the Middle East, I will bring back my suspended adviser Samantha Power. I look forward to her input, along with that of Charles Freeman, former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and critic of Israel, as head of the National Intelligence Council, to craft new directions in the region.

“We expect to open new dialogues with Basher al-Assad of Syria and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran without preconditions. And to further the cause of peace in the Middle East, the United States will pledge almost $1 billion to help rebuild the Gaza strip that is governed by Hamas.â€

I have been flooding the White House's, the Cabinet's and Nancy Pelosi's e-mail with my disapproving comments since January. I enourage you all to write and call them frequently. I just wrote the following to Pelosi:

"Shame on you for personally wasting my and fellow citizens' taxpayer dollars on special military aircraft to shuttle you, your family and others unknown for liesure purposes! The word on this is out and you will be shamed in the public eye. The hubris by which you operate in your position is appalling and disgusting. Your actions prove to Americans that you follow in the footsteps of Bernie Madoff."