Thread: Mexico's drug violence expected to escalate in '09

Mexico's drug violence expected to escalate in '09

12:18 AM CST on Sunday, January 4, 2009
By ALFREDO CORCHADO / The Dallas Morning News
acorchado@dallasnews.com

WASHINGTON – Drug-related violence in Mexico, already at unprecedented levels, is expected to escalate further this year, with targets likely to include top Mexican politicians and law enforcement agents and possibly even U.S. officials, according to diplomats and intelligence experts on both sides of the border.

The warning underscores the difficult choices confronting President Felipe Calderón as he takes on drug cartels while weighing the implications of growing casualties in a year of midterm elections and a slowing economy.

It also reflects rising concern among U.S. officials and analysts about the deteriorating security situation, corruption among Mexico's top crime fighters, and the vulnerability of the military to possible corruption in battling cartel gangs.

As the war against cartels escalates in 2009, so will the threats, particularly against U.S. officials and other Americans, officials, analysts and diplomats, including U.S. Ambassador Tony Garza, said in recent interviews.

"Calderón must, and will, keep the pressure on the cartels, but look, let's not be naïve – there will be more violence, more blood, and, yes, things will get worse before they get better. That's the nature of the battle," Garza said. "The more pressure the cartels feel, the more they'll lash out like cornered animals.

"Our folks know exactly how high the stakes are," Garza said. He advised Americans traveling to Mexico to check State Department travel alerts at www.state.gov.

A U.S. intelligence official based along the Texas border warned that U.S. officials, American businessmen and journalists will "become targets, if they're not already."

"All bets are off," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The more pressure you apply on the cartels, the bolder these thugs become."

The official, citing information from informants and other intelligence, said attacks against Americans may include car bombs placed outside consulate offices and embassies or attacks on "specific individuals."

The threats, the intelligence official said, are a result of "growing frustration" among cartel leaders and the internal dynamics of cartel organizations. He described the drug gangs as "transnational, with deep financial, cultural and social ties to Mexican and U.S. cities, whether Ciudad Juárez; Culiacán, Sinaloa; as well as El Paso, Houston or Dallas."

"The cartels are playing a game of chicken," said Armand Peschard-Sverdrup, head of Washington-based Peshcard-Sverdrup & Associates, a political consulting group. "They're testing the resolve of the Mexican government, society in general, and the U.S. government as well by targeting Americans."


'Failed cities'

Already, the violence is crippling regions and cities, some of them on the border with Texas. Some top U.S. officials and analysts describe these cities, including Ciudad Juárez, across the border from El Paso, as "failed cities," in which cartels, not city or police officials, have control.

Ciudad Juárez, whose mayor and other elected officials have moved to El Paso in recent months and commute to Juárez, ended the year with more than 1,600 drug-related killings. Nationwide, more than 5,700 – criminals, soldiers, police, journalists and bystanders – were killed. That's more than twice the estimated 2,300 slain in 2007.

Philip Heymann, a Harvard law professor and expert on terrorism, characterized the ongoing violence in Mexico as "narcoterrorism, given the tactics used," including beheadings and efforts to silence and intimidate society through threats, gruesome videos and text messages.

"I think the situation in Mexico is very, very dangerous for everyone, including the United States," he said. "The situation hasn't yet registered in the mindset of Americans, but it will, especially when Americans become the target. All you need are two, three Americans killed and the issue will suddenly become important."

Frustration among senior U.S. officials over Mexican corruption is acute, particularly after the arrest of drug czar Noe Ramirez. He is alleged to have been receiving $500,000 a month from the Arturo Beltrán Leyva drug gang in exchange for intelligence, some of which originated with U.S. officials at the U.S. Embassy.

Last week, the U.S. Embassy announced that extraditions to the U.S. from Mexico rose from 83 to 85 for 2008 and included wanted U.S. citizens and drug traffickers, Garza said. He cited "excellent collaboration between our governments."

Several other high-ranking officials and police officers have been arrested as part of an anti-corruption effort known as Operation Cleanup. More recently, an army officer in the presidential guard was arrested and accused of selling secrets about the movements of Calderón to drug cartels.

A senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the issue of corruption as "complicated."

"On the one hand, it's high up, among people we work with," the official said. On the other hand, the corrupt officials are actually being prosecuted.

"If this had happened with any other administration, these people would have been demoted and not necessarily prosecuted," the official said. "That is a hopeful sign, so I want to believe that this is actually good news. But this is really high up, and it reminds us of the magnitude of the problem. ... Every time this happens we wonder whether we're being played."


U.S. economic crisis' effect

Frustration comes as the U.S. expands its role this year under the Mérida Initiative, a $1.4 billion program over several years aimed at providing Mexico with new technology, training and military equipment. The effort is designed to assist the Calderón government in battling cartels and help Mexico regain government control of several cities, totaling nearly 10 percent of Mexican territory, officials say.

But the assistance may trickle in more slowly, over six years, instead of the three years originally planned, a result of the economic crisis in the United States, sources familiar with the program said. Moreover, the initiative, under the incoming administration of Barrack Obama, may be "tweaked" to address the issue of U.S. demand for drugs, a U.S. Senate aide said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"The endgame here is to debilitate these guys to the point where they cannot function the same way," said the senior administration official. "Ultimately we're not trying to wipe out drug trafficking in Mexico. We're trying to reduce it from the existential problem threatening democracy in Mexico and law enforcement. And you can't really do that until you weaken drug traffickers and strengthen the security forces."

Garza was equally emphatic.

"Drug trafficking, the capacity to corrupt, and the violence inflicted by these cartels presents a real threat to public security across the Americas," he said. "We're talking about a hemispheric security issue. [President] Bush gets it. Calderón does, too. We either pony up and partner up with Mexico and others in the region or face a far less secure future."


Midterm elections

The cartel threat to democracy is real and will again be tested this summer when Mexico holds midterm elections, said Luis Carlos Ugalde, author of a newly released book, That's How I Lived It (Asi Lo Vivi), a firsthand account of his days as president of the Federal Electoral Institute and his role in helping decide the outcome of the controversial 2006 presidential election.

"Mexican democracy remains weak and vulnerable to infiltration by cartel money," Ugalde said. "We're facing crucial elections in which our young democracy and society will be tested in a very direct way."

Of immediate concern to both Mexican and U.S. officials is an increasingly skeptical Mexican public, whose support is essential. While Calderón's strategy has succeeded in disrupting the cartels, Mexicans are alarmed that their country's security situation has continued to unravel.

"When the public becomes cynical about stopping corruption, fighting corruption becomes that much more difficult," Heymann said. "If the public is not visibly outraged, the strategies of fighting corruption or organized crime will not work. It's only when a country and the public becomes really angry and serious ... that corruption becomes risky."

Mexican Congressman Gerardo Priego Tapia, chairman of a special commission on attacks against journalists and the media, said there are signs of public apathy.

These days, "when a journalist is killed, no one does anything. No one complains. No one seems outraged. No one cares," he said, noting that more than half-dozen journalists were slain in 2008. "Indifference is our enemy."

Mexico Bureau chief Alfredo Corchado is currently a Nieman fellow at Harvard University.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent ... 66a14.html

As the war against cartels escalates in 2009, so will the threats, particularly against U.S. officials and other Americans, officials, analysts and diplomats, including U.S. Ambassador Tony Garza, said in recent interviews.

I hope you nut cases in DC and state and local government have a plan and somewhere to hide, and that it doesnt include standing next to me .... dont look for me to protect you ... you pieces of DUNG are on your own... I guess they are now getting worried over the same crap they invented .. [open borders]

ya know what... if a fence will not work on the border.... Why do we have one around the White House (Seems pretty effective there dont ya think) .. I suggest you people pick up the pace and get that fence up and hire more border guards

Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi .. you two look kinda pale and frail besides being absolutly worthless .. why dont ya go South and passify the Drug Lords

AirborneSapper wrote

Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi .. you two look kinda pale and frail besides being absolutly worthless .. why dont ya go South and passify the Drug Lords

Yea, do what you do best..bend over for them.

"I think the situation in Mexico is very, very dangerous for everyone, including the United States," he said. "The situation hasn't yet registered in the mindset of Americans, but it will, especially when Americans become the target. All you need are two, three Americans killed and the issue will suddenly become important."

Uhhhhh excuse me ... Hey Moron ... Whats the differance between a Drug Cartel member Killing us or your very Own Illegal Aliens from your FAILED STATE decimating us in our own homes and on our roads

Is this somehow more Important or designed to create more fear that you NUT Jobs rely on to stay in power ... we have already had thousands upon thousands killed and we are now suppossed to be more afraid .. you are worthless ... just as our politicians are worthless.. they serve no one but themselves, big business and special interest groups

Get a grip or go change your "Depends Diaper" whichever works for you

"Drug trafficking, the capacity to corrupt, and the violence inflicted by these cartels presents a real threat to public security across the Americas," he said. "We're talking about a hemispheric security issue. [President] Bush gets it. Calderón does, too. We either pony up and partner up with Mexico and others in the region or face a far less secure future."

Bush is the most incompetant piece of "DUNG" this country ever passed; everything this "NUT" should have done "He Did the COMPLETE Opposite"

What they want [These TWO Globalists] is a North American Union and will stop at nothing to get it...

So you little mouth pieces for the North American Union can go drag your corrupt backside south of the border and live your dream because it will not happen here

Originally Posted by AirborneSapper7

"Drug trafficking, the capacity to corrupt, and the violence inflicted by these cartels presents a real threat to public security across the Americas," he said. "We're talking about a hemispheric security issue. [President] Bush gets it. Calderón does, too. We either pony up and partner up with Mexico and others in the region or face a far less secure future."

Bush is the most incompetant piece of "DUNG" this country ever passed; everything this "NUT" should have done "He Did the COMPLETE Opposite"

What they want [These TWO Globalists] is a North American Union and will stop at nothing to get it...

So you little mouth pieces for the North American Union can go drag your corrupt backside south of the border and live your dream because it will not happen here

i agree 100 percent. dont think i could have said it better

"The cartels are playing a game of chicken," said Armand Peschard-Sverdrup, head of Washington-based Peshcard-Sverdrup & Associates, a political consulting group. "They're testing the resolve of the Mexican government, society in general, and the U.S. government as well by targeting Americans."

Exactly. IMO there ought to be laws that will automatically give the death penalty to any member of the drug cartels that even try to murder an American.

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