Inside US Trade
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




FACING POSSIBLE LATE JULY VOTE, DR-CAFTA SUPPORTERS ACTIVELY SEEK DEALS
_______________________________________________


Date: July 15, 2005


Supporters of the free trade agreement with the Dominican Republic and five Central American countries during the congressional recess have failed to sway a significant number of members into supporting the deal, which has opened the door to efforts by the Bush Administration and the congressional leadership to makes specific deals with individual members in return for their votes, according to informed sources.


“I do not think there was any movement necessarily by members [over the recess],� Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX) said this week. “The large number of undecideds are still undecided.� He acknowledged that this was the case even as agriculture and business supporters worked intensely in the districts but insisted that supporters of the deal are gaining ground.


Business supporters of DR-CAFTA this week were focusing their lobbying efforts on 78 House members, according to a list provided at a July 13 whip meeting and reprinted below. The list shows 46 Republican and 32 Democratic members who business believes can be persuaded to support the DR-CAFTA. But it is clear not every one of them will support the deal, according to one lobbyist. One DR-CAFTA opponent said that this reflects just how many votes the administration is still short of getting the DR-CAFTA passed.


Brady insisted a “lot of members� will ultimately vote yes but at this time have not declared their position. Other DR-CAFTA supporters are trying to highlight that they also did not lose any votes to the efforts of opponents who also worked intensely in the districts during the recess.


In some cases, members are making demands related to the substance of the DR-CAFTA, such as rules covering textiles, and the administration is negotiating with them to secure their votes (see related story). But there seem to be no further efforts to provide additional assurances on sugar to members, sources said.


In other cases, members are raising demands unrelated to DR-CAFTA, which could be included in the highway and energy bills on which Congress is still working, according to these sources.


House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas (R-CA) this week hinted at these trade offs to a group of DR-CAFTA supporters when he pointed out that both the energy and highway bills are on the floor the same month as the DR-CAFTA, they said.


Administration officials would only say this week that they are trying to address individual demands raised by individual members and professed surprise that anyone would be shocked by that fact. In some cases, members have raised alarm over what they see as the unfair competition between China and the U.S., and have made it clear they would be more comfortable voting for DR-CAFTA if they could also vote on legislation that would take a harder line on China, according to House members and administration officials. In response, Thomas unveiled a China bill yesterday (July 14) with a provision allowing the imposition of countervailing duties on imports from non-market economies. A version of this provision has been championed by Rep. Phil English (R-PA), who at the press conference with Thomas said he was now comfortable voting for DR-CAFTA.


Earlier in the week, Thomas said the bill will be voted on “in concert with� the DR-CAFTA. A House aide said that the House leadership is still gauging whether to let a China bill come to the floor before the DR-CAFTA or afterwards.


Some supporters of DR-CAFTA said a new problem has cropped up with members who had previously signaled their support for the deal, but who are beginning to ask new questions. These members know they can get something for their votes, so they are expressing doubts, one supporter charged.


The House Republican leadership plans to announce a specific date for a late July vote in a matter of days, according to business sources, who said Deputy Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) delivered this message at a July 13 DR-CAFTA rally.


“We will have a vote before the August recess� on DR-CAFTA, Cantor told reporters after the rally. Business supporters of DR-CAFTA said Thomas is adamant that the vote take place in July, partially because he fears a delay until September could lead to the defeat of the deal. A similar point was made by a U.S. trade official who said that it is “critical� to have the vote in July because support will erode over the recess.


Other sources point out that the leadership’s determination to have the vote in July may be driven by the fact that they expect much of their energy to be directed toward a bill to alter Social Security this fall.


President Bush this week implied that the DR-CAFTA deal would come up this month when he said in a July 13 statement that his congressional priorities “over the next couple of weeks� are the energy bill and the DR-CAFTA. With that apparent timetable, the Bush Administration sees next week as the time to make the deals that will provide members with the necessary incentives to support DR-CAFTA, sources said.


The DR-CAFTA will need to attract about 215 votes to pass, given that some members will not be present to vote, according to informed sources. The administration believes it will attract no more than 20 House Democrats, which would be considerably more than the six that support the deal now. Commitments made by U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman to Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) on building Central American capacity for labor enforcement and trade adjustment have failed to attract House Democrats, according to these sources.


This would mean House Republican leadership needs to secure the votes of 195 Republicans in favor of the agreement, leaving more than 30 to oppose it, these sources said. There are 231 Republicans in the House.


Supporters of DR-CAFTA claim that the House Democratic leadership is putting “incredible pressure� on Democratic members to vote against the DR-CAFTA as a vote against President Bush. In his comments to reporters, Brady implied that this could backfire in terms of support for DR-CAFTA. “I think [Republican] members realize that the Democrat strategy is to kill CAFTA, then kill Social Security [and] make the President a lame duck,� he said.


A House aide for a Republican opponent of DR-CAFTA said that there is some degree of trade agreement fatigue among Republican members and DR-CAFTA is being seen as a vote on the broader issue of U.S. trade policy. But he also pointed out that in the last four years, the leadership has only lost one vote on an item for which it sought House approval. This was a vote on a rule for the House bankruptcy bill, which had gotten tangled up in an abortion rights issue, he said.


Supporters and opponents alike, including Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), predict the agreement will at best pass with a very tight vote. In a July 11 floor speech, he said that if the DR-CAFTA came up for a vote today, it would go down by 20 to 25 votes. He predicted that once the agreement is brought up, the House leadership will keep the roll call open not for the regular 15 minutes, but for up to three hours as the leadership will put “immense pressure� on members to change their votes. “If it in fact passes, it will pass by no more than two or three votes,� said Brown, who has been leading Democratic whipping efforts against DR-CAFTA.


According to some DR-CAFTA opponents, well over half the Pennsylvania Republicans are among those that remain undecided, and they could be trying to extract concessions from GOP leaders and the administration. Some conservative members who have voted for past trade agreements, such as Reps. Trent Franks (R-AZ) and House Judiciary Committee Chairman James Sensenbrenner (R-WI), also remain undecided, according to opponents.


Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) continues to raise questions on whether the services commitments in the DR-CAFTA are a backdoor to immigration, sources said. Several other House Republicans think this is a problematic issue, but it is up to them to decide if it is enough of an issue to vote against the agreement, a House aide said.


The administration and GOP leaders have tried to qualm these objections, most recently in a July 14 meeting between Portman and members. In addition, House Majority Leader Tom Delay (R-TX), House International Relations Chairman Henry Hyde (R-IL) and Reps. Lamar Smith (R-TX) sent a letter to members disputing charges that the services commitments could lead to more immigration. Portman already has pointed to the commitment by the Central American countries that the DR-CAFTA will not alter any commitments on immigration (Inside U.S. Trade, July 8, p. 1).


At the same time that House leaders are expressing their desire for a July vote, they have left open the option of having it after the August recess because the House Ways and Means Committee did not formally file the report on DR-CAFTA by July 12. Under the fast-track law, the House must vote 15 legislative days after the formal filing of the committee report.


If the committee had filed the report by July 12, a vote would have had to occur by the August recess. Its expected filing later this week holds open the possibility of a September vote.


Under House rules applicable for all legislation, there is a layover requirement of three calendar days between a committee formally filing legislation and House floor action. That requirement can be waived by the House Rules Committee.


This means that DR-CAFTA could be brought up with a day’s notice, which a Democratic House aide said he expected the House leadership to do once it believes it has secured the necessary votes.


Inside US Trade
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Text: Business Target List For DR-CAFTA

______________________________________________

Date: July 15, 2005


Alabama

* Bonner
* Everett
* Aderholt
* Cramer

California
* Pombo
* Eshoo
* Lofgren
* Gallegly
* Davis

Florida
* Brown-Waite
* Stearns
* Davis
* Meek
* Foley
* Wasserman-Schultz

Georgia
* Bishop
* Deal
* Gingrey
* Scott

Indiana
* Souder
* Hostettler
* Sodrel
Missouri
* Clay
* Skelton
* Emerson

New York
* McCarthy
* Meeks
* Towns
* McHugh
* Boehlert
* Walsh
* Kuhl


North Carolina
* Etheridge
* Price
* Coble
* Fox[x]
* McHenry
* Hayes
* Miller
* Watt

Ohio
* Turner
* Regula
* Ney
* LaTourette

Pennsylvania
* English
* Weldon
* Gerlach
* Fitzpatrick
* Murphy
* Platt[s]

Tennessee
* Jenkins
* Duncan
* Cooper
* Blackburn
* Ford


Texas
* Hinojosa
* Reyes
* Edwards
* Gonzalez
* Ortiz
* Johnson


Republicans
* Bishop (Ut)
* Capito (WVa)
* Davis (Va)
* Ehlers (Mich)
* Gibbons (Ct)
* Gutknecht (Minn)
* Hefley (Co)
* Moran (Kan)
* Petri (Wis)
* Walden (Org)

Democrats
* Bean (Ill)
* Boren (Ok)
* Matheson (Ut)
* Moore (Kan)
* Snyder (Ark)
* Ross (Ark)
* Johnson (Tex)