Thread: Parties may see immigration as no-win

Parties may see immigration as no-win
Local advocates say they're hearing little at conventions
By Tom Kisken (Contact)
Wednesday, September 3, 2008

They journeyed 24 hours from Oxnard to Denver and then 24 hours back, driving through the night in three large vans. They demonstrated, chatted up delegates and politicked for change.

But the fight for immigration reform that brought 47 immigrants and advocates from Oxnard to the Democratic National Convention didn't generate more than a heartbeat or two of attention from podium speakers, including presidential nominee Barack Obama.

Political analysts say they'll be surprised if Republicans in St. Paul this week spend any more time talking about an issue guaranteed to divide voters.

"I think for political reasons, they really don't want to talk about it," said Alicia Flores, the Oxnard reform advocate who helped organize the trip to Denver and this week has her television tuned to the Republican National Convention. "My message to them is that we're here. And we also vote."

Pundits speculate that both parties have pegged immigration as a no-win issue, at least at national conventions where a message tailored to one group can disenfranchise the next. No matter what they say or what side they take, they run the risk of losing potential votes.

"Immigration will be the elephant in the room for the next two months and maybe the next few years," said Tom Hogen-Esch, an associate professor of political science at CSU Northridge.

It was different when millions of immigrants marched in cities across the nation, demanding amnesty and chanting "Si se puede." If the convention had been held in 2005, immigration would have been one of the top three issues, Hogen-Esch said.

Focus is elsewhere

But gas prices have rocketed. The housing market crashed. Voters now are focused on the economy, a fractured healthcare system and the Iraq war.

Immigration remains prominent, but it's been pushed far enough back that candidates believe they can choose not to focus on it from the convention podium.

"There's only so much oxygen in the room," Hogen-Esch said. "There's only so many narratives that can be sustained in any conversation."

Immigration platforms for Obama's and John McCain's campaigns touch on some of the same points, including securing the borders, meeting labor needs by providing more workers and creating ways that illegal immigrants can apply for legal status.

An unspoken agreement

Mark Krikorian, executive director for the Center for Immigration Studies that advocates for more enforcement against illegal immigrants, said the stances are similar enough that there's an unspoken agreement between the parties not to push the issue.

He thinks Democrats worry about alienating independent swing voters. McCain doesn't want to scare away Republicans ardently opposed to immigration reform.

That's why the candidate likely won't say much more about immigration in his convention speech Thursday than to acknowledge it's an issue, Krikorian said.

"He'll say something in his speech that they're all God's children, but we need to have border control first," he said. "If he says more than two or three sentences about it, I'll be surprised."

'It's all about jobs'

The issue may not be pushed aside for long. Some pundits predict the push for immigration reform will emerge after the election, no matter which candidate wins. The economy is the caveat, said Frank D. Bean, director of the Center for Research on Immigration at UC Irvine.

"It's all about jobs," he said. "It's hard to build a case for more immigration and better opportunities for legalization when people don't have jobs. ... It may be dead in the water until things improve."

Flores, executive director for the Hermandad Mexicana Transnacional center and advocacy group in Oxnard, came to Denver ready to vote for Obama if he pledged at the convention to fight for legalization for the nation's estimated 12 million illegal immigrants. That didn't happen, and now she wants to hear McCain's message and believes many other Latino voters are listening, too.

"They're still undecided," she said.
http://www.venturacountystar.com/news/2 ... as-no-win/

The only ones both candidates should be listening to are the AMERICAN VOTERS. The majority of us want enforcement and oppose any form of amnesty. Illegal aliens have no permission or right to be here, they are not welcome and need to be deported.

The only ones who want amnesty are illegal aliens and their supporters.

Which of these groups is the largest voting bloc? US citizen voters or illegal aliens? THAT'S the group these two need to listen to!