Thread: Poll looks at emotions behind vote on Prop. 200

http://www.thinkaz.org/documents/TheYes ... rop200.pdf



http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepubli ... oll02.html

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Poll looks at emotions behind vote on Prop. 200



Jon Kamman
The Arizona Republic
Sept. 2, 2005 12:00 AM

Proposition 200, the ballot measure targeting undocumented immigrants, passed last fall largely because Arizonans voted with their emotions, a statewide poll indicates.

Two-thirds of the poll's 603 respondents said passage of the measure "sends a message to elected officials that they'd better deal with illegal immigration now or voters will take matters into their own hands."

The poll, released this week, was conducted in March and April by ThinkAZ, a Phoenix-based nonpartisan research institute. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Poll author Shirley Gunther and institute President Rita Maguire described it as an effort to identify the characteristics of people who voted for and against the proposition, and to explain what motivated their decisions.

Other states are considering similar initiatives, and the Arizona analysis can provide insight into how the electorate approaches the issues.

Proposition 200, labeled by supporters as the Protect Arizona Now initiative, was a four-pronged reinforcement of laws prohibiting unlawful border crossers from voting or collecting certain government benefits. It passed with 56 percent of the vote in November.

The measure requires people to prove they are U.S. citizens when registering to vote, then show official identification at the polls.

It also requires applicants for various state benefits to prove they are eligible, and it makes government employees subject to criminal prosecution if they fail to report ineligible applicants to authorities.

The top two reasons cited by respondents who voted for the proposition were that they had "strong negative feelings toward illegal immigrants" or considered the immigrants an "economic drain" on the state.

Together, those sentiments were voiced by more than four in 10 (43 percent) of "yes" voters.

Nearly half (48 percent) of all respondents felt that the proposition won't have any effect on reducing problems involving illegal immigration.

Despite that feeling, "the majority of voters felt they had to do something," the study concluded.

Among other findings:


• Nearly 6 in 10 respondents (57 percent) made up their mind on how they would vote as soon as they heard of the proposition. If so, that would signify that the more than $500,000 invested in promoting the measure and $1.3 million fighting it swayed a small proportion of voters.


• More than half (54 percent) judged the measure's wording "vague."


• The measure's specific provisions on voting restrictions influenced only 21 percent of the voters, but other provisions had little influence.

The emotional aspect came as no surprise to Humphrey Taylor, an executive with the Harris Interactive market research firm in New York and chairman of the board of trustees of the National Council on Public Polls.

"There are very few political decisions that are more intellectual than emotional," Taylor said.

Also, some of the findings may have been affected by post-election revisionist thinking by poll respondents, Taylor and the study itself said.

One indication of this was that 66 percent of respondents said they had voted for the measure, although the actual count was 56 percent.

Were more Americans to realize how difficult it is to as an American get residency driving and work permits in Mexico the margin would have been greater.