Tuesday, August 22nd, 2006

All's Quiet in the Persian Gulf

By Steve Christ

"If you want to have good relations with the Iranian people in the future, you should acknowledge the right and the might of the Iranian people, and you should bow and surrender to the might of the Iranian people. If you do not accept this, the Iranian people will force you to bow and surrender."
Excerpt from a speech delivered by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which aired on Iranian News Channel (IRINN) on August 15, 2006
All is quiet in the Persian Gulf. The "Hidden Imam" is still nowhere to be found and it looks as though August 22nd will be like all the rest-just another day on the calendar.
Evidently, the "War of Gog and Magog" will have to wait.
But despite this respite from some promised Armageddon the Iranian danger continues to persist.
Unfortunately, Jimmy Carter's weakness still haunts us 28 years later.
But while all eyes are focused on the dangerous nuclear game that is being played out in the U.N., Iran presents another more immediate danger in the waters of the Persian Gulf itself.
Because despite the pleas of well meaning admirals to the contrary, Iran has developed the alarming potential to seize control of gulf.
Simply put, this is no small danger.
After all, the Straits of Hormuz is the economic jugular vein of the world. Through these straits pass some 17 million barrels of oil a day. In fact, some 20% of the world's oil is shipped out on tankers through this narrow passageway everyday.
In short, it is the world's most important waterway. And its closure is not an option.
In fact, any attack on the straits would devastate the world economy and send the price of oil easily into the 100's.
After all at $73 per barrel, the price of oil merely contemplates and prices in a certain level of geopolitical instability.
It does not, however, reflect the specter of geopolitical calamity. And certainly, the closing of the Gulf would fit this bill.
Unfortunately, it is this type of calamity that Iran seems poised to deliver. In fact, they have practically promised it.
It was only last January that Mohammed-Nabi Rudaki, the deputy chairman of Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, ominously warned that, "If Europe does not act wisely with the Iranian nuclear portfolio and it is referred to the U.N. Security Council and economic or air travel restrictions are imposed unjustly, we have the power to halt oil supply to the last drop from the shores of the Persian Gulf via the Straits of Hormuz"
And given that Iran has refused to curtail its nuclear ambitions a naval conflict in the Gulf seems inevitable.
And it is here where the vaunted U. S. Navy is the most vulnerable.
While that may be hard to believe given how easily we have dealt with the Iranian Navy in the past, it is indeed true.
Lt. General Paul Van Riper (USMC) has proven it.
For those of you that aren't familiar with the General, he is something of a modern day Billy Mitchell.
In the biggest war game ever conceived and played out in the Persian Gulf, General Van Riper sent 16 U. S. warships to the bottom of the Persian Gulf as the leader of a "rogue middle eastern state" In fact, his "red team" was well on its way to winning the game when higher ups suspended the game, put a stop to his tactics, and "refloated" their ships.
But the damage had been done. Van Riper had succeeded.
Astutely and covertly Van Riper had armed numerous civilian pleasure boats and deployed them near the U.S. 5th Fleet. And when faced with the ultimatum to surrender his Red team went on the offensive achieving complete tactical surprise. On cue his small armada swarmed the fleet making kamikaze attacks. Other boats fired Silkworm Cruise missiles from close range.
In the end the red team had sunk a carrier, an Aegis Cruiser, six amphibious ships and 6 other vessels. His massive first salvo of missiles was simply too overwhelming. And in short order most of the fleet went to the bottom and thousands of American soldiers were dead, dying or wounded.
Unbelievably, had the games been real it would have been the worst US naval defeat since Pearl Harbor itself.
In short, by employing the same type of asymmetrical warfare our adversaries are likely to use in a conflict, General Van Riper poked a giant hole in the theory of our naval invulnerability.
And like Billy Mitchell before him, he proved that the fleet was vulnerable- particularly to new technology.
But this time it wasn't carrier based airplanes that stole the show but antiship missiles that sunk the fleet.
And it is these missiles that present the greatest threat to the gulf.
You see, Iran has armed themselves to the teeth with these weapons and could likely paralyze the Gulf in a stunning first strike.
But to make matters worse, Iran has built up a supply of advanced Russian antiship cruise missiles that have the ability to strike at our forces anywhere in the Gulf.
These missiles are in fact so advanced that the truth is that our forces have no defense against them. As Van Riper has proven, these missiles would get through.
And in the lake that is the gulf, our Navy now sits like ducks on the pond.
In short, their missiles have trumped our ships. Because of this Iran now sits poised to dominate the gulf. It is a scary thought.
But this of course is just another piece of the growing menace that is Iran.
They seek nuclear weapons. They support terrorism worldwide. They take hostages. They blow up buildings. They threaten our way of life.
They have declared war on us.
But their war has gone unanswered.
We fight Iran in Gaza. We fight Iran in Lebanon. We fight Iran in Syria. We fight Iran in Iraq. We fight Iran everywhere but in Iran.
The Persian Gulf won't be quiet for long. It can't be.
We will not slip quietly into the night.

www.energyandcapital.com