The link to this site is at the bottom. If you are not familiar with it you may want to bookmark ti because it is a wealth of information for presenting your arguments and appears to be well researched. Anyone use it? Post comments.

There are a number of graphs and tables that did not copy over. To input photos and tables each has to be saved to the net and the URL then loaded, which is a lot of trouble in this case because of the quantity.

This is for those who like to know the details.


http://cis.org/CurrentNumbers


Desert Cactus

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A Shifting Tide: Recent Trends in the Illegal Immigrant Population
By Steven A. Camarota, Karen Jensenius
July 2009
Backgrounders and Reports

Download this Backgrounder as a pdf

Steven A. Camarota is the Director of Research and Karen Jensenius is a demographer at the Center for Immigration Studies.

Monthly Census Bureau data show that the number of less-educated young Hispanic immigrants in the country has declined significantly. The evidence indicates that the illegal population declined after July 2007 and then rebounded somewhat in the summer of 2008 before resuming its decline in the fall of 2008 and into the first quarter of 2009. Both increased immigration enforcement and the recession seem to explain this decline. There is evidence that the decline was caused by both fewer illegal immigrants coming and an increase in the number returning home. However, this pattern does not apply to the legal immigrant population, which has not fallen significantly.

Among the findings:

* Our best estimate is that the illegal population declined 13.7 percent (1.7 million) from a peak of 12.5 million in the summer of 2007 to 10.8 million in the first quarter of 2009.

* If we compare the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2009, the implied decline is 1.3 million (10.9 percent). In just the last year the decline was 5.7 percent.

* By design, these estimates produce results similar to those from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). DHS estimates of the illegal population show a 1.5 percent decline between January 1, 2007, and January 1, 2008. Our estimates show a 1.6 percent decline over the same time period. DHS has not yet estimated the illegal population for January 2009.

* There is evidence that the number of new illegal immigrants arriving has fallen by about one-third in the last two years compared to earlier in this decade.

* There is also evidence that the number of illegal immigrants returning home has more than doubled in the last two years compared to earlier in this decade.

* While migration patterns have fundamentally changed, it must be remembered that the overwhelming majority of illegal immigrants have not left the country, and tens of thousands of new illegal immigrants continue to settle in the country each year.

* Our analysis shows that only the illegal immigrant population has declined. The legal immigrant population does not show the same decline. This is also true for Mexico, the top illegal-immigrant-sending country.

* The fact that the legal immigrant population does not show the same decline is an indication that stepped up enforcement has played a role.

* Another indication that enforcement has played a role in the decline is that the illegal immigrant population began falling before there was a significant rise in their unemployment rate.

* While the decline began before unemployment among illegal immigrants rose, unemployment among illegal immigrants has increased dramatically and must now be playing a significant role in reducing their numbers.

* There is evidence that the illegal population rose in the summer of 2007, while Congress was considering legalizing illegal immigrants. When that legislation failed to pass, the illegal population quickly began a dramatic fall.

* There is no way to know if the current trend will continue. Given President Obama’s stated desire to legalize illegal immigrants and his backing away from enforcement efforts, it seems likely that when the economy recovers, the illegal population will resume its growth.

Introduction

There is widespread agreement that until recently the number of illegal immigrants in the United States was growing. However, there is now very strong evidence that the overall size of the illegal population is no longer increasing and, in fact, is falling. Numerous stories in the media, estimates by the federal government, and research by those outside the government all point to a significant change in migration patterns. For example, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) estimates that between January 2000 and January 2007 the illegal alien population grew 3.3 million. But the newest DHS estimates show that between January 1, 2007, and January 1, 2008, the illegal alien population declined 180,000.1

This study analyzes the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is collected monthly by the Census Bureau. The findings show clear evidence that the illegal population has declined significantly. The evidence indicates that since hitting a peak in the summer of 2007 the illegal population may have declined by almost 14 percent through the first three months of 2009. In just the last year we find a decline of 5.7 percent from the first quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of this year. A decline in the illegal population is consistent with anecdotal evidence reported in the media of fewer immigrants coming and more returning home.2 There are also data showing a significant decline in remittances sent home by immigrants.3 In addition, it is consistent with the significant drop in border apprehensions.4 Recent migration data from the Mexican government also show a very significant decline in net migration from that country.5

Future enforcement efforts as well as the state of the economy will likely determine if the current trend continues. President Obama has repeatedly stated his strong desire to legalize those in the country illegally and it is unclear to what extent the new administration will enforce immigration laws. Also the future direction of the economy, which is likely to play a very significant role in migration trends, is another unknown factor. The relative importance of increased enforcement versus the economy is difficult to determine. What is clear is that a very long-standing migration pattern has reversed. But once the economy recovers and if enforcement is reduced, which seems likely, the illegal population will almost certainly resume it growth.

New Enforcement Efforts

When efforts to legalize illegal immigrants failed in the U.S. Senate in the summer of 2007, then Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff and Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez stated that, “until Congress chooses to act, we’re going to be taking some energetic steps of our own.â€